ATL: GRACE - Models

[BobHarlem]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/QM1068z2/6-F5-F7-E32-E772-4-E67-A70-F-7-E084-E8-D17-FA.gif

This is quite the 4-5 day spread.

[blp]

Bahamas Bound for the HWRF, What was the last system that the HWRF did really well with ?

It did a great job with katrina on the approach to se florida, that was a few presidents ago

It was the GFDL not the HWRF. GFDL was my favorite model back in the day. Replaced by HMON a few years back. It was the only one that predicted the SW motion of Katrina prior to landfall in Miami. Also, was the first model to move IKE in 08 SW over Cuba. Your comparison was good because back in the day the hurricane models would sometimes outshine the globals so it was a more open playing field. So far this year looks similar to those years past.

[Category5Kaiju]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/QM1068z2/6-F5-F7-E32-E772-4-E67-A70-F-7-E084-E8-D17-FA.gif

Wow, that's some pretty striking contrast there. Further south=not very strong storm, but further north=pretty significant storm. Let's watch if the yellow system actually becomes something, it may play a subtle but important role in allowing Grace to turn more northward imho

[Spacecoast]

[SouthFLTropics]

00z ICON should be kicking off shortly. Also, will be interesting to see the discussion from the NHC tonight with regard to the different scenarios the models are putting out.

[Category5Kaiju]

One thing I did check was the most recent ensemble compilation for the ecmwf. One thing I noticed was how many of the members really turned Grace into a significant hurricane, or at least those that made it into the Gulf. Of course it's early and things can still (and very likely will) change, but perhaps the models are onto something in assuming the Gulf to being very favorable for intensification next week or so?

[Blown Away]

18Z EPS
https://i.imgur.com/PVFlAOo.gif

For the northern EPS tracks to verify in short term Grace will have to go over central PR... Wow, lots of rain heading for PR soon!

[SouthFLTropics]

ICON through 45 hours is further south and over Hispaniola.

[IcyTundra]

ICON pretty much has it going across almost all of Hispanola and much of Cuba but it isn't completely dead as it emerges just south of the western tip of Cuba at hour 99.

[SouthFLTropics]

ICON HUGE shift SW towards the Yucatan Channel. These models are all over the place. We may have better luck throwing darts.

[SoupBone]

ICON HUGE shift SW towards the Yucatan Channel. These models are all over the place. We may have better luck throwing darts.

Look at the high pressure that the ICON is showing. It dips down all the way to damn near the Yucatan. Very odd setup.

[SFLcane]

ICON HUGE shift SW towards the Yucatan Channel. These models are all over the place. We may have better luck throwing darts.

It’s the icon

[BobHarlem]

0z Icon with the left shift, and run into Yucatan. Also notable is the triad effect from Fred, Grace, and 96L and the high pressures extending deep into the Gulf. Crazy complex setup.

[Spacecoast]

How likely is it that Grace will track North of San Juan? I'd say less than 50%, but I could be wrong.

The intensity forecast remains closely tied to the track forecast, and any deviations to the north or south could allow Grace
to stay stronger than indicated in this forecast. However, it also remains distinctly possible that Grace could dissipate before the
end of this 5-day forecast due to the forecasted land interaction.

Significant land interaction:

[IcyTundra]

0Z GFS is running

[HurricaneFrances04]

Back to the north with the gfs. Looks to be emerging off the north coast near the Haiti/DR border.

Edit: and opens up into a wave over eastern Cuba.

[lsuhurricane]

Looks to be reorganizing off the northern coast of Cuba. Just goes to show how tough this forecast will be. I don’t envy the NHC

[SoupBone]

What I don't get so far with the GFS is the pulsing of that high pressure in the Gulf. It's a pretty significant back and forth.

[SouthFLTropics]

00z CMC SW and weaker than the 12z.

[Kohlecane]

not even sure what the GFS is trying to do between 114 and 156, although somewhat similar..ish to ICON i guess