ATL: ELSA - Models
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Wow, misses Jamaica too and looking to stay south of eastern Cuba
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:I'm blind, is that 985 or 965?
I zoomed in....965 while threading the needle between Jamaica and Cuba.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
galaxy401 wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:I'm blind, is that 985 or 965?
969 it looks like.
965mb
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
963mb at 60hrs...
South of Cuba moving WNW.
South of Cuba moving WNW.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:963mb at 60hrs...
South of Cuba moving WNW.
Unreal. Looks like it’s dodging land the way it weaves through DR and Jamaica
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:963mb at 60hrs...
South of Cuba moving WNW.
And this was with a bad initialization
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galaxy401
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:galaxy401 wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:I'm blind, is that 985 or 965?
969 it looks like.
965mb
I was looking at the most recent post on the forum and didn't know there was a new one after that that wasn't posted yet.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
skyline385 wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:963mb at 60hrs...
South of Cuba moving WNW.
And this was with a bad initialization
I don’t think so. HWRF initialized on the money
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
66 hrs still south of Cuba still strengthening still chugging to the west
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Here comes the turn.. 954mb
HWRF going bonkers...
HWRF going bonkers...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Wow
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:skyline385 wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:963mb at 60hrs...
South of Cuba moving WNW.
And this was with a bad initialization
I don’t think so. HWRF initialized on the money
HWRF pressure initialized and was stuck at 998mb at 12hrs with some dry air intrusion from the south holding it down. None of that is happening based on recon (who also confirmed the core is closed off from the south) and recent Water Vapor loops..
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
I think I'll stop here for now. Anything else is a little too much.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
fox13weather wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:NDG wrote:For those of you still following the Euro its latest 06z run has Elsa opening up into the TW tonight, lol.
https://i.imgur.com/EASagi4.png
I really hope the people that run the euro are doing some heavy upgrades and fast.
What if it turns out to be more accurate than the GFS? Is it impossible for the Euro solution to come close to verifying?
Well so far even in the short term the Euro continues to not do so well, it forecasted to be decoupling by now.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Slams into Cuba making the turn
Last edited by eastcoastFL on Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:Here comes the turn.. 954mb
HWRF going bonkers...
Unreal...hopefully it goes west of the FL. Keys....or East...just not a direct hit.
If this is true, it will be a disaster for the area. The local officials still are going with a tropical storm is our only threat. If this verifies it will be too late for evacuations late Sunday\early Monday. The holiday weekend brings in over 100,000 tourists to the Florida Keys.
I hope the NHC stops being so conservative with the intensity forecast....Monroe County has a meeting at 5pm this afternoon. If Elsa is still only forecast to be a storm over the Keys, they will take minimum precautions.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
HWRF brings it to the 2nd highest peak of Cuba. Escambray Mountains.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Fri Jul 02, 2021 12:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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