ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

visible floater

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[NDG]

Recon finds no sign of CoC reformation NE of the LLC near the MLC, but clearly the LLC is speeding quickly on that direction as seen on radar.
Also finds SLPs not any lower than the previous mission.

[GCANE]

That shear gradient is actually driving the strong convection.
There is a chance a strong high-helicity hot tower could pop up for a while and drive the mid-level vort to the surface.
CAPE is starting to get pretty high here.

[grapealcoholic]

We probably won't know much until the center is done reforming

[Blown Away]

NHC 7am: 25.4N/96.9W
NHC 4am: 25.5N/96.6W

Nicholas position a little farther W than 4am track, not much but that brings the W core of Nicholas skirting land.

[aspen]

Recon finds no sign of CoC reformation NE of the LLC near the MLC, but clearly the LLC is speeding quickly on that direction as seen on radar.
Also finds SLPs not any lower than the previous mission.

https://i.imgur.com/BJApkam.png

Gotta watch out for the LLC suddenly repositioning itself under the MLC. This is so far reminding me a lot of Sally, and after one really big hot tower, the MLC and LLC snapped together instantly. The currently expanding hot tower might attempt a Sally-like reformation.

[xironman]

HurricaneTrack's theory may work out. I think we will need to have a full survey of the storm before a conclusion.

[grapealcoholic]

This is a full blown reformation/stacking on radar -- pretty cool stuff

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1437396214652284946

[capNstorms]

Before coming here I was looking at the radar questioning my eyes is the COC REPOSITIONING ITSELF?

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/1437399721950261250

[aspen]

LLC at 25.45N/96.75W, extrapolated pressure of 1000.0mb

[grapealcoholic]

LLC at 25.45N/96.75W, extrapolated pressure of 1000.0mb

993

[Smurfwicked]

Just when convection appeared to be decreasing a new tower is popping on infrared.

[Kohlecane]

MY EYES HURT .. Nick figure it out

[aspen]

LLC at 25.45N/96.75W, extrapolated pressure of 1000.0mb

993

That drop seems off to me. Usually, the AF planes don’t have such a large pressure discrepancy between extrapolated and dropsonde pressures.

Also, a 7mb drop between flights in a dying LLC? I doubt it.

[NDG]

I have to agree, the radar and radar velocity is starting to look interesting, the LLC has completely stopped its progression, what appeared it moving eastward was the convection near it being decoupled it.

[GCANE]

This tower is refiring with an increasing infeed.
Based on the cirrus outflow, shear doesn't look too bad,
See how this progresses thru the day.
Just our luck, recon will probably be away if it spins up.

[grapealcoholic]

LLC at 25.45N/96.75W, extrapolated pressure of 1000.0mb

993

That drop seems off to me. Usually, the AF planes don’t have such a large pressure discrepancy between extrapolated and dropsonde pressures.

It might be due to that LLC being "remnant" so the plane's flight pressure doesn't quite calibrate to normal extrapolations

[Frank P]

Well it sure looks like on radar that the old LLC near the coast is washing out as it rotates CCW and perhaps a new center is forming off to the NE. Perhaps just premature speculation on my part…