ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Upgrade likely coming at 11 advisory.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1404596976985989121

[Aric Dunn]

Even though the center is on the edge of the convection currently.. Given the forward speed and convection should be seeing Bill soon..

[CyclonicFury]

Still a TD at the 00z best track.

AL, 02, 2021061500, , BEST, 0, 359N, 708W, 30, 1005, TD

[Aric Dunn]

Still a TD at the 00z best track.

AL, 02, 2021061500, , BEST, 0, 359N, 708W, 30, 1005, TD

They often don't go with the best track by the time the advisory comes out. probably awaiting for some form of scat or surface ob..

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT26 KNES 150010
TCSNTL

A. 02L (NONAME)

B. 14/2331Z

C. 35.7N

D. 70.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. EXTRATROPICAL

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSITIONED TO EXTRA TROPICAL AS MOST OF
THE CONVECTION IS POLE WARD/EASTWARD OF THE CENTER AND THE CENTER IS
VOID OF CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM NO LONGER HAS A WARM CORE. THIS WILL BE
THE FINAL BULLETIN.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

Going to need ASCAT to bail us out here.

[Stormybajan]

Still a TD at the 00z best track.

AL, 02, 2021061500, , BEST, 0, 359N, 708W, 30, 1005, TD

Surely TD2, if it didnt already meet requirements for TS Bill this morning, meets them right now its most likely peaking too so imo, they should name it Bill at 11 but with the 00z still a TD which is strange to me, I guess we will have to wait a little longer

[ElectricStorm]

Unless I've missed it, I haven't seen anything that supports a TS upgrade. Unless an ASCAT pass or something comes in between now and the advisory that proves it's a TS, I don't see this getting upgraded.

[Ubuntwo]

Unless I've missed it, I haven't seen anything that supports a TS upgrade. Unless an ASCAT pass or something comes in between now and the advisory, I don't see this getting upgraded.

SATCON is at 38kt, and there's been a general improvement in satellite appearance. With this forward motion it needs to produce 30kt max winds just to close off a low, so it most likely is above that mark. Hurricane models also depicted a notable increase in wind (up to ~50kt) with a similar presentation to what we're seeing now. Regardless it has another 12 hours or so to be formally upgraded.

An ASCAT pass hot off the press:


Supports at least 40kt.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah should be Bill shortly.

[aspen]

Unless I've missed it, I haven't seen anything that supports a TS upgrade. Unless an ASCAT pass or something comes in between now and the advisory, I don't see this getting upgraded.

SATCON is at 38kt, and there's been a general improvement in satellite appearance. With this forward motion it needs to produce 30kt max winds just to close off a low, so it most likely is above that mark. Hurricane models also depicted a notable increase in wind (up to ~50kt) with a similar presentation to what we're seeing now. Regardless it has another 12 hours or so to be formally upgraded.

And ASCAT (: https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/716215692617187328/854167005262512138/LATEST.png?width=676&height=676

35 kt from ASCAT is certainly enough to upgrade, especially since it sometimes under-samples. Get ready for Bill either at 11pm or 5am.

[ElectricStorm]

Unless I've missed it, I haven't seen anything that supports a TS upgrade. Unless an ASCAT pass or something comes in between now and the advisory, I don't see this getting upgraded.

SATCON is at 38kt, and there's been a general improvement in satellite appearance. With this forward motion it needs to produce 30kt max winds just to close off a low, so it most likely is above that mark. Hurricane models also depicted a notable increase in wind (up to ~50kt) with a similar presentation to what we're seeing now. Regardless it has another 12 hours or so to be formally upgraded.

An ASCAT pass hot off the press:
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/716215692617187328/854167005262512138/LATEST.png?width=676&height=676

Supports at least 40kt.

Yeah I definitely missed that. It's been a long day lol

[Ubuntwo]

Unless I've missed it, I haven't seen anything that supports a TS upgrade. Unless an ASCAT pass or something comes in between now and the advisory, I don't see this getting upgraded.

SATCON is at 38kt, and there's been a general improvement in satellite appearance. With this forward motion it needs to produce 30kt max winds just to close off a low, so it most likely is above that mark. Hurricane models also depicted a notable increase in wind (up to ~50kt) with a similar presentation to what we're seeing now. Regardless it has another 12 hours or so to be formally upgraded.

An ASCAT pass hot off the press:
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/716215692617187328/854167005262512138/LATEST.png?width=676&height=676

Supports at least 40kt.

Yeah I definitely missed that. It's been a long day lol

That ASCAT pass came in right after your post, it's all good

[EquusStorm]

Boy what a confusing and fascinating thing this has been to track. Stayed up til 4am watching Morehead City radar after assuming it wouldn't do anything and it started to wrap up rapidly.

Classic brief coast runner... just really early in the season for it. June already proving highly entertaining

[Sciencerocks]

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 02, 2021061500, 03, OFCL, 0, 359N, 708W, 40, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 60, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 0, , 0, RJP, 60, 19,
AL, 02, 2021061500, 03, OFCL, 3, 367N, 698W, 40, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 60, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 0, , 0, RJP, 55, 20,

[Nancy Smar]

NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on TS Bill

[MarioProtVI]

And there he is. Interestingly enough, Bill is like Claudette of 2015, and we could have vice versa too if 92L spins up.

[Sciencerocks]

[EquusStorm]

Honestly, one of the most decent looking June storms in many years; won't last long but certainly putting on one last big show tonight.



Tops are starting to warm and lightning is decreasing: probably at a 45 to at most 50kt overall peak right now. ATCF has 45kt