ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

Never underestimate a wave with a broad and consistently popping (even if unorganized) convective component as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Seen that story before.

[captainbarbossa19]

save south florida ? many system have crossed those regions and come out the other side to deepen again..

Those systems were larger than 94L. A small system such as 94L would likely struggle to contend with the mountainous terrain and lose its stacked circulation.

Laura:

[toad strangler]

A more southerly track would still take 94L toward the Tiburón Peninsula and some of the highest peaks on the island of Hispaniola, which would save South Florida.

save south florida ? many system have crossed those regions and come out the other side to deepen again..

Those systems were larger than 94L. A small system such as 94L would likely struggle to contend with the mountainous terrain and lose its stacked circulation.

Nah vehemently disagree. smaller circulations can get cranking much faster than large areas of disrupted circulation. If 94L is weak to begin while crossing GA mountains there would n't be much to disrupt anyway. We shall see!

[toad strangler]

Never underestimate a wave with a broad and consistently popping (even if unorganized) convective component as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Seen that story before.

Especially this time of year .... that calendar demands that a wave in an area like 94L be given much respect in August.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF reorganizing it south OF CUBA after landfall with Hispaniola.

[captainbarbossa19]

HWRF reorganizing it south OF CUBA after landfall with Hispaniola.

Reminding me of a certain storm from last year when it comes to track.

[Blown Away]

Latest... Does appear to be somewhat consolidating farther N than earlier today...

[NDG]

18z Best track. I am not sure if I agree with it being so far east. I place it closer to 54W.
But they could be still tracking the over all broad vorticity.

At 1800 UTC, 08 August 2021, DISTURBANCE INVEST 94 (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 13.1°N and 53.3°W.

[Aric Dunn]

18z Best track. I am not sure if I agree with it being so far east. I place it closer to 54W.
But they could be still tracking the over all broad vorticity.

At 1800 UTC, 08 August 2021, DISTURBANCE INVEST 94 (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 13.1°N and 53.3°W.

I have it at 55.3

[xironman]

The convection out front eroding the dry air a bit. If it manages to stay south of Barbados it may do ok.

[MGC]

Starting to get that tumbleweed look. Better watch this one....MGC

[SFLcane]

Meh… Not overly impressed as of right. Plenty of obstacles ahead one of them being land interaction. My bet is the nhc starts back tracking on those favorable conditions ahead.

We will see

[Blown Away]

I couldn't make the "L" pop out at last second, lol... But IMO the "L" is where the Low is when the clip finishes and let's see if that new convection ball builds...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1424455952393252866

[Stormybajan]

https://i.imgur.com/gIYDvK7.gif

I couldn't make the "L" pop out at last second, lol... But IMO the "L" is where the Low is when the clip finishes and let's see if that new convection ball builds...

Not looking as good it did earlier or even last night, the issue clearly isnt shear but I think its found itself too close to the very dry air to its west, needs to form a moisture pouch for itself. We'll see if tonight it can refire some convection

[Aric Dunn]

You can see the well defiend llc just peaking out from the convection. now we wait to see for convection fire back over it.

[Nimbus]

Starting to get that tumbleweed look. Better watch this one....MGC

I'll take a tumbleweed any day, Elsa developed an eye feature just before raking the southern part of Barbados which caused a lot of damage. Not seeing the concentrated showers yet so hopefully Barbados gets off with just squalls this time but with three invests out there I don't envy the NHC. Models are probably set for track accuracy, best scenario might be 93l and 94l take their time working out which one will become dominant and they steal enough resources from each other that neither become majors.

[Aric Dunn]

a little closer and slower for anyone not seeing it.

[AtlanticWind]

Being in South Florida I am not overly concerned yet, but this is one of the systems I watch closely for impacts since the models
are pretty tightly clustered on a path toward this area. Again models not showing much in intensity but
it is 6 days out from here. August /Sept. is the time to be prepared for sudden changes to forecasts for this type of situation.

Still my best guess is that this becomes weak/moderate T.S. and interacts with the islands enough to keep it weak. Hoping.

Always worry about rainfall in Haiti , hopefully moving fast enough that it wont be to bad

[AtlanticWind]

a little closer and slower for anyone not seeing it.

https://i.ibb.co/G9FHjhB/LABELS-19700101-000000-131.gif

https://i.ibb.co/KLtyDYv/Capture.png

looks like it could be, but not sure its not a swirl in a little bit broader circulation.