ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[captainbarbossa19]

Why does Fred and this system have late-season Octoberish vibes?

Because they could both hit Florida.

I think the ridge is a lot stronger now than it is normally in October. Most of the time, storms approach from the south or southwest when they hit Florida in October. These systems are all moving mainly east to west. It's so far out, but I would not be surprised to see a stronger ridge later on. I think some models were hinting at stronger ridging the other day after Fred makes landfall in Florida.

[Cpv17]

Why does Fred and this system have late-season Octoberish vibes?

Because they could both hit Florida.

I think the ridge is a lot stronger now than it is normally in October. Most of the time, storms approach from the south or southwest when they hit Florida in October. These systems are all moving mainly east to west. It's so far out, but I would not be surprised to see a stronger ridge later on. I think some models were hinting at stronger ridging the other day after Fred makes landfall in Florida.

Take a look at the 6z GEFS. I believe this storm will stay on the southerly side of the guidance.

[Cpv17]

Convection looks to be on the slight increase again right now as it heads west. I think whats a bit encouraging atleast right now is that models are aggressive with this as of yet. Maybe it will stay weak and traverse through the leewards as a strong wave

If you’re wanting a storm to recurve then it would be better for it to strengthen where it’s at now vs further west.

Yeah I agree with Sflcane here...if it were to strength I dont think it would be allowed to recurve far enough north to miss any land masses but with no well defined circulation for the next few days anything can still happen. Time to sit back and watch

Yes but in general I’m saying if a storm strengthens further east it has a better chance to recurve unless of course strong ridging is present.

[abajan]

I really am not comfortable with how so many members take it right into the islands that were devastated by Irma and Maria 4 years ago (yes, that includes PR). Not saying we will see anything that strong with this storm of course, but it just gives me very discouraging vibes.

Once you've been following a while (not sure how long you've been reading) you'll learn who's bullish and who's words to take as gospel.

Just in case there's any confusion, they were referring to ensemble members (of a weather model), not Storm2K members!

[msbee]

I really am not comfortable with how so many members take it right into the islands that were devastated by Irma and Maria 4 years ago (yes, that includes PR). Not saying we will see anything that strong with this storm of course, but it just gives me very discouraging vibes.

Me too

[AlphaToOmega]

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to become gradually more conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while moving generally westward across the tropical
Atlantic near 20 mph. This system could reach portions of the
Leeward Islands by late Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

I don't want to get ahead of myself and hype anything up but if this manages to stay north of the islands and not do what Fred is doing, I think there's a chance this may get pretty strong. Of course there's a lot of other factors than just land but I've got an uneasy feeling about this one, although I do think it will go over Al least one of the greater Antilles. Especially the flood threat for the areas hit by Fred.

[captainbarbossa19]

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to become gradually more conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while moving generally westward across the tropical
Atlantic near 20 mph. This system could reach portions of the
Leeward Islands by late Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Increasing chances.

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2021081118, , BEST, 0, 121N, 350W, 25, 1010, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[captainbarbossa19]

This sure looks like it is slowly getting better organized. I think in a few days, it's going to really take off. I just hope it does not get too strong.

[cycloneye]

NHc's Papin speaks.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1425586265051869189

[AlphaToOmega]

Fred now a tropical depression, Invest 95L now at 60%

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic about
1600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to gradually become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the
system moves generally westward at about 20 mph across the tropical
Atlantic. This system could reach portions of the Leeward Islands
by late Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Nimbus]

Its elongated now and moving west fairly fast so development isn't expected till the islands Saturday.
Levi showed two models with high pressure providing a more favorable environment for development then, but the ridge position is still evolving that far out for track south/north/through Hispaniola.

[gatorcane]

Dry air looks to be an inhibiting factor. According to the GFS, that surge of extremely dry air to the east quickly pushes west and engulfs this system:

[InfernoFlameCat]

Doubt it will do more than slow the system.

[Category5Kaiju]

Eh, it's riding in front of the SAL plume, if anything this is a better spot to be in compared to right under a plume as the latter would surely increase the risk of the wave going slightly north and then succumbing to the dry air. The position it looks to be currently in with respect to the SAL does not looks like it will be a long term issue imho

[AtlanticWind]

Looking better tonight , this is likely to form I believe.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Despite the model's best efforts, I think this will eventually develop.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Shame I am going to miss the peak of this storm if it develops. Got boot camp for ROTC in college next week.