EPAC: NORA - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FOURTEEN EP142021 08/26/21 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 36 36 38 38 42 46 49 54 56 57 55 51 48
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 36 36 38 38 42 46 49 54 56 57 55 51 48
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 30 29 27 26 27 29 31 33 36 38 37 34 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 22 24 28 27 23 17 8 10 5 4 1 2 8 10 20 21 21
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 -1 3 2 0 2 0 3 1 0 0 -1 5 4
SHEAR DIR 61 42 41 50 52 65 117 168 231 217 140 194 168 177 172 199 196
SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.7 29.0 28.6 29.0 29.2 28.7 27.8 25.1 23.9 24.1
POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 147 147 148 150 148 151 154 149 153 155 151 142 113 99 101
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -51.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 7 7 5 5 3 3 3
700-500 MB RH 90 87 85 83 80 77 77 74 71 67 61 54 53 46 42 37 40
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 17 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 65 64 79 77 59 80 76 86 95 77 70 37 28 2 13 16 36
200 MB DIV 184 189 143 130 99 124 110 101 31 18 20 -5 12 0 11 -1 14
700-850 TADV -9 -9 -4 -7 -9 -6 -6 0 -2 -1 1 3 5 4 5 -2 -1
LAND (KM) 525 527 530 511 494 404 301 194 183 262 161 61 109 107 178 126 26
LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.7 16.3 17.9 19.4 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 100.5 101.3 102.0 102.7 103.4 104.4 105.3 106.0 107.1 108.2 109.3 110.4 111.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 7 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 10 13 19 20 17 15 12 15 21 17 15 17 11 4 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. 33. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. -3. -6. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 8. 8. 12. 16. 19. 24. 26. 27. 25. 21. 18.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 100.5

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 FOURTEEN 08/26/21 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 149.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.95 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9%
Logistic: 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 4.3% 5.3%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
Consensus: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.4% 7.2%
DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 FOURTEEN 08/26/21 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that convection is increasing near the
center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E, but it is occurring in
bands that are not showing a lot of curvature at this time.
Satellite intensity estimates are currently 35 kt from SAB and 30
kt from TAFB, and the CIMSS ADT and satellite consensus techniques
are also in the 30-35 kt range. In addition, earlier scatterometer
data showed 25-30 kt winds, although there was no data close to the
center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/7 kt. The cyclone
is being steered generally westward along the southern extent of a
mid-level ridge over the south-central United States. A deep-layer
trough over the western U.S. is forecast to weaken this ridge during
the next couple of days, with the cyclone moving northwestward to
north-northwestward as a result. The track guidance continues to
show a motion close to the coast of southwestern Mexico between
48-72 h, and the GFS and Canadian models on the eastern side of the
guidance show a landfall in Mexico. The ECMWF model is farther to
the left and keeps the system offshore of Mexico, while the UKMET is
between these extremes and keeps the center offshore of mainland
Mexico before taking the system near the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula. The forecast track is similar to the
previous track, following the consensus models in keeping the center
offshore of mainland Mexico before coming near Baja California Sur.
However, there remains above average uncertainty in the track
forecast, and interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico and
in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the progress of the
system and potential changes to the forecast.

The depression is currently being affected by northeasterly
vertical shear, which is likely to persist for another 24 h. After
that time, conditions appear favorable for strengthening if the
center stays far enough offshore. The new intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge
of the intensity guidance. The 48-120 h portion of the forecast
again has lower than average confidence due to the possibility of
land interaction.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm on
Thursday and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday or Saturday
night. While the core of the storm is currently expected to pass
near but offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds
and heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in flash floods and
mudslides, could affect portions of that area over the next several
days. Interests in this area should closely monitor the progress of
this system and updates to the forecast.

2. The system is forecast to pass near the southern portion of Baja
California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of
wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average
uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 12.0N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 12.8N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 13.9N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 19.5N 106.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 21.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Subtrop]

EP, 14, 2021082612, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1004W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 30, 1008, 200, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018,

[InfernoFlameCat]

Bet this wouldn't even be mentioned in a two by the cpac. although this does look nothing like a tc right now.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Tropical storm Nora, welcome.

[aspen]

This might be more of a Dolores repeat than a Guillermo/Kevin repeat: it gets too close to the coast and makes landfall before it can become nearly as strong as what the models once showed.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...TROPICAL STORM NORA FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 100.8W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Lazaro
Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch has
been issued east of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Nora. Warnings or additional watches will
likely be required later today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 100.8 West. Nora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this evening. A
motion toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast to
begin overnight and continue through Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of
Mexico on Friday and be very near the coast on Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Nora is expected to become a hurricane by late Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area Saturday and Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area beginning Friday or Friday night.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are
forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are expected to begin affecting the
southern coast of Mexico today and will spread northward to the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of the week. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Satellite images show that deep convection embedded within the
sprawling circulation of the depression is gradually becoming
better organized, and 91-GHz SSMIS data from 1117 UTC showed
improved curvature to the bands, especially within the western
semicircle. Subjective Dvorak estimates are now a consensus
T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, while objective numbers from UW-CIMSS
are running a little higher. Therefore, the depression is being
upgraded to Tropical Storm Nora with 35-kt winds.

The microwave data, as well as first-light visible imagery, suggest
that the center may be consolidating or re-forming a little farther
east of where we had been tracking it. Nora is moving slowly
toward the west-northwest (296/6 kt), steered by a strong mid-level
ridge located over the southern United States. This ridge is
expected to dissolve over the next 24 hours as a shortwave trough
moves across the Rocky Mountains, allowing Nora to turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest through the weekend. Most of the
differences among the track models still appear to be related to
the initial location of Nora's center. The GFS continues to show
the system having multiple low-level vortices, with a dominant one
forming well to the east and moving inland along the southwestern
coast of Mexico as early as late Friday, and many more GEFS
ensemble members show a similar scenario compared to yesterday.
The HWRF and HMON are also in the camp of bringing Nora's center
inland over Mexico. Other models, including the ECMWF (and most of
its ensemble members), the UKMET, and the consensus aids, still
show Nora's center staying just offshore. The new NHC track
forecast has been shifted eastward, primarily due to the adjustment
of the initial position, and shows Nora's center very close to the
coast of southwestern Mexico over the weekend. If Nora's center
re-forms, then additional shifts in the track forecast will be
likely. By early next week, Nora is likely to head towards Baja
California Sur, but here is still a lot of uncertainty on the exact
track at that time.

Moderate northeasterly vertical shear continues to affect Nora, but
this shear is expected to decrease to 10 kt or less in 36-48 hours.
In addition, the storm will be moving over warm waters of 28-29
degrees Celsius and through an environment of high mid-level
moisture. These factors should allow for continued strengthening,
although the system's large size could be one limiting factor in how
fast that strengthening happens. Nora is expected to be near or at
hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southwestern
Mexico in 2-3 days. However, the intensity forecast, especially on
days 3-5, hinges on whether or not the center moves inland. If it
does not, Nora will have greater opportunity to strengthen while it
heads toward the Baja California Peninsula. Since several of the
intensity models assume a scenario where Nora moves inland, the NHC
intensity forecast more closely follows the no-land versions of the
GFS and ECMWF SHIPS models through day 4 to be consistent with what
is shown in the track forecast.

Given the high uncertainty in Nora's future track, and its roughly
shore-parallel path, a larger-than-normal hurricane watch area has
been issued for the southwestern coast of Mexico by the Mexican
government.


Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by late Saturday
while it approaches the coast of southwestern Mexico, and hurricane
and tropical storm watches are now in effect for portions of that
area. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should
closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the
forecast.

2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides could occur.

3. Nora is forecast to be near the southern portion of Baja
California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of
wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average
uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 12.5N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 13.2N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 14.3N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 15.7N 103.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 17.4N 104.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 20.2N 106.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 22.3N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 24.0N 110.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS not really having the same issues as before and still bringing this onshore.

[Yellow Evan]

927
WTPZ34 KNHC 261737
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
100 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT NORA'S WIND FIELD HAS GROWN IN
SIZE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 101.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Nora. Warnings or additional watches will
likely be required later today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 101.0 West. Nora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this evening. A
motion toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast to begin
overnight and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico on
Friday and be very near the coast on Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is
expected to become a hurricane by late Saturday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that Nora is a large tropical
storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area Saturday and Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area beginning Friday or Friday night.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are
forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of
Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

More stacked but still not classifiable. Needs another day or so before this can really get going but with the center more east than expected may not have that time.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF still brings this to 972 mbar but way overinitializes.



Shows its second northward turn more east than past two cycles.

[Yellow Evan]

XPZ25 KNES 261819
TCSENP

A. 14E (NORA)

B. 26/1730Z

C. 13.4N

D. 100.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES NEAR THE ACTIVE
LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTING IN A SHEAR PATTERN DT OF 2.0. SHEAR FROM THE
NE HAS ORIENTED THE ACTIVE CONVECTION TO THE SW AND W OF THE LLCC AS SEEN
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, THE 1422Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS
A FURTHER CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
PERSISTENT ATTEMPTS AT ORGANIZING WITH NEW CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR
THE LLCC. THE 24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING RESULTING MET TO BE 3.0 AND PT
TO BE 2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 101.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico and
southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress
of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required
for portions of these areas tonight and on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 101.7 West. Nora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion
toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected to begin
tonight and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico
Friday and Friday night and be very near the coast Saturday and
Saturday night. Nora will then approach the southern portion of
Baja California Sur on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is
expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Nora is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area beginning tonight or on Friday.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are
forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of
Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Scatterometer data from around midday showed that Nora has an
expansive circulation with tropical-storm-force winds nearly
reaching the coast of Mexico. The data also showed a possible
center embedded within a larger area of light winds, but it is
possible that there's another similar feature farther west where
the instrument did not sample. Nora's winds remain 35 kt based on
the ASCAT pass and the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB, and
the center has been placed between the two dumb-belling vorticity
maxima.

Even with the updated position, Nora is moving toward the
west-northwest (285/8 kt), to the south of mid-level ridging over
the southern United States. A shortwave trough currently over the
northern Rockies is expected to erode the ridge over the next 12-24
hours, allowing Nora to turn toward the northwest and then
north-northwest by the weekend. Even with the GFS's solution of
multiple swirls consolidating over the next day or so, the 12Z run
shifted left and now shows Nora potentially moving inland over
Mexico farther west than it had in previous runs. A few of the
other models--for example the HWRF and HMON--also bring the center
inland as well, but the bulk of the interpolated model trackers
continue to keep Nora just offshore but very near the coast of
southwestern Mexico in about 48 hours. Model spread remains larger
than normal, but no significant changes were required from the
previous NHC track forecast based on the latest guidance suite.
After passing southwestern Mexico, Nora is expected to be over Baja
California Sur or the Gulf of California on days 4 and 5.

Moderate northeasterly shear continues to affect Nora, but that
shear is expected to decrease to a less-intrusive magnitude during
the next 24 hours. Along with warm sea surface temperatures of
28-30 degrees Celsius, a moist mid-level environment, and
upper-level divergence, Nora is expected to strengthen in the coming
days. The rate of intensification could, however, be tempered by
Nora's large size and structure. Assuming Nora does not move inland
over southwestern Mexico, the storm is expected to become a
hurricane on Saturday and then possibly continue strengthening up
until the point it reaches the Baja California Peninsula. Much of
the intensity guidance is based on scenarios showing Nora moving
inland, which is suppressing the intensity consensus aids.
Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast is mostly based on the
ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM models, since the parent ECMWF model does
not show Nora moving inland.

Given Nora's larger wind field, tropical-storm-force winds are
likely to reach the coast of Mexico earlier than expected.
Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. The
Hurricane Watch issued earlier today also remains in effect.


Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by Saturday
while it is near the coast of southwestern Mexico, and a hurricane
watch and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that
area. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should
closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the
forecast.

2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides could occur.

3. Nora is forecast to be near the southern portion of Baja
California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of
wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average
uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 13.4N 101.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 14.1N 102.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 15.3N 103.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 16.8N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 18.6N 105.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 20.3N 106.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 21.6N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 23.6N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER BAJA CAL SUR
120H 31/1800Z 25.2N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER BAJA CAL SUR

$$
Forecaster Berg

[zeehag]

i want to see a biggie but not this one.
i hope it goes to shore early-- will prevent loss of life and property

[Yellow Evan]

Looks much better.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah now which track verifies is the question. Euro vs the GFS.

[cycloneye]

14E NORA 210827 0000 13.8N 102.2W EPAC 40 1001

[Yellow Evan]

091
WTPZ34 KNHC 262343
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
700 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...NORA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 102.2W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico and
southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress
of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required
for portions of these areas later tonight and on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 102.2 West. Nora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 11 mph (18 km/h). A motion
toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected to begin later
tonight and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico Friday
and Friday night and be very near the coast Saturday and Saturday
night. Nora will then approach the southern portion of Baja
California Sur on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Nora is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 205 miles (330 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area beginning later tonight or on Friday.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are
forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi