ATL: PETER - Models

[GeneratorPower]

Lol What… we’re did the tutt go?

At least everyone got chance to talk about big TUTTS for a few days.

And just minutes after the best post of 2021, a new record was set. Congratulations.

[SFLcane]

All seriousness if this thing is faster and now has less tutt influence things could get worrisome.Still many days out and lots can change.

[gatorcane]

Looks like nearly an identical 500MB setup for 95l as with Larry on this particular run of the long-range GFS with a one-two punch of troughs rolling off the eastern seaboard. Those troughs usher in well below normal temps for much of the eastern half of the CONUS:

[Spacecoast]

Last two GEFS runs: tighter spread, slight shift east w/ most members E of 20N, 60W.
A couple of fizzler's NE of LA..... Only the strong survive?

[gatorcane]

00Z. SHIPS almost to CAT 3:

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS shows the system weaker and also a thinner TUTT than the last few runs

[AutoPenalti]

Meh, that trough doesn’t sound convincing.

[SouthFLTropics]

Why am I getting the feeling that this 00z run of the GFS is going to throw us a wild swing back to the west with a stronger system???


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[Hurricaneman]

Why am I getting the feeling that this 00z run of the GFS is going to throw us a wild swing back to the west with a stronger system???


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So far it’s weak at 204 and sheared but not as badly as 6 or 12z runs

[Hurricaneman]

I think the GFS is off, looks as if 95L is starting to rotate in the low levels even though broad when the GFS shows development at basically 2 days out, the GFS makes a low end tropical storm out of this when conditions are there for a lot more strengthening in the MDR so looking at the GFS it doesn’t really bundle the energy with multiple vortices and that’s why it keeps 95L weak when in fact looking at satellite I only really see one and it’s around 11.8 N

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 14.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2021 0 15.7N 14.4W 1009 22
1200UTC 14.09.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

[Teban54]

Lol 0z Euro has this peak at 1012 mb.

[aspen]

All of the 00z models trended weaker, and only the ICON really shows any development. Seeing how 95L already has a good spin and might be within a day from being a TC, those runs are probably wrong; they don’t even show anything before the TUTT either.

[kevin]

06z ICON has a weak TS:

[aspen]

06z GFS is another slow development and death-by-TUTT run. We can toss this solution out if 95L becomes TD15 or Odette within the next 48 hours, because this run takes until Friday to have something classifiable.

[kevin]

06z HWRF gets consistent TS winds (35+ kt) at 24 hours from now.

[SFLcane]

[aspen]

HWRF is slow like the GFS, but not as slow; 95L looks good on Thursday and would probably be TS Odette with that IR presentation.

Update: in the 990s by Saturday, and the environment looks decently favorable.

[kevin]

06z HWRF is slow but does eventually reach hurricane strength at +111.

[Blown Away]

06z... TVCN near 20N/60W at end run, likely because of a weaker system,,,