ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Yellow Evan wrote:grapealcoholic wrote:T7.0 soon
Unlikely unless the storm can sustain cloud tops W or colder for a half of a degree around the eye (on Black Dvorak color scheme) and the eye temperature itself reaches 9C.
I bet it can
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
ADT up to 5.3/5.4 and I think it'll just keep rising. I think they'll go with 95 or 100 kt in the next advisory.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
grapealcoholic wrote:I wonder how willing NHC would be to upgrade a storm to Cat 5 with satellite data alone
In post-analysis they did so with Lorenzo so perhaps now they've learned about that and know exactly which signs to look for in these cases. Either way recon should hopefully be there around its peak.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
If the eye warms further, with thick, cold cloud tops almost or completely surrounding the warm eye, one can easily argue for a Cat5 without recon measurements.
On an interesting note, we have 2 potential Category 5 cyclones in the world at the same time today.
On an interesting note, we have 2 potential Category 5 cyclones in the world at the same time today.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
95 knots
18L SAM 210925 0600 12.7N 46.3W ATL 95 973
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
kevin wrote:grapealcoholic wrote:I wonder how willing NHC would be to upgrade a storm to Cat 5 with satellite data alone
In post-analysis they did so with Lorenzo so perhaps now they've learned about that and know exactly which signs to look for in these cases. Either way recon should hopefully be there around its peak.
We'll see, looks like it might have some initial peak within 24 hours
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
I think we'll be at 120-125 by 11am at the current rate of intensification if it continues.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Raw T# now up to 5.7, so 105 kt. CI# still at 5.4 but it's only a matter of time. Sam is really exploding now. I expected RI, but this really reminds me of those big ones in October 2020 or Maria in 2017.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
kevin wrote:Raw T# now up to 5.7, so 105 kt. CI# still at 5.4 but it's only a matter of time. Sam is really exploding now. I expected RI, but this really reminds me of those big ones in October 2020 or Maria in 2017.
I was going to say this is best looking storm since Michael then I remembered some of those Caribbean storms last year
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Pretty sure this will be the fastest 24-48hr intensification phase in the MDR since Maria 2017
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
People who went to bed ~5 hours ago will wake up to quite a surprise. I can't see how this doesn't at least become a cat 4 in the coming hours if this intensification continues. As I said I'm getting some Maria vibes from this storm. There's probably way better analogs, but that's the first one that came to mind since I didn't really start tracking until 2016-2017. Also RawT# now up to 6.0, 115 kt.
Last edited by kevin on Sat Sep 25, 2021 2:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 SEP 2021 Time : 072020 UTC
Lat : 12:43:12 N Lon : 46:29:24 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 963.7mb/102.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.8 6.0
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km
Center Temp : +13.8C Cloud Region Temp : -63.4C
Scene Type : EYE
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 SEP 2021 Time : 072020 UTC
Lat : 12:43:12 N Lon : 46:29:24 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 963.7mb/102.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.8 6.0
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km
Center Temp : +13.8C Cloud Region Temp : -63.4C
Scene Type : EYE
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
grapealcoholic wrote:kevin wrote:Raw T# now up to 5.7, so 105 kt. CI# still at 5.4 but it's only a matter of time. Sam is really exploding now. I expected RI, but this really reminds me of those big ones in October 2020 or Maria in 2017.
I was going to say this is best looking storm since Michael then I remembered some of those Caribbean storms last year
The Caribbean nearly did more in 2020 than it did during the entire 2010's decade.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
kevin wrote:People who went to bed ~5 hours ago will wake up to quite a surprise. I can't see how this doesn't at least become a cat 4 in the coming hours if this intensification continues. As I said I'm getting some Maria vibes from this storm. There's probably way better analogs, but that's the first one that came to mind since I didn't really start tracking until 2016-2017. Also RawT# now up to 6.0, 115 kt.
It's more similar to Jose.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Man the WPac storms are on a totally different level. We have two intensifying canes at the same time but Mindulle can eat Sam alive with Such RI, while Sam is powering up "gracefully".
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Has it taken a temporary west jog?
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
grapealcoholic wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:grapealcoholic wrote:T7.0 soon
Unlikely unless the storm can sustain cloud tops W or colder for a half of a degree around the eye (on Black Dvorak color scheme) and the eye temperature itself reaches 9C.
I bet it can
Very few hurricanes in this part of the world can. This isn’t the WCarb/BOC.
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