ATL: GRACE - Models

[tolakram]

06z Euro ensembles.
If it tracks north of Cuba chances of getting strong is greater, will have better UL conditions than what Fred had.

https://i.imgur.com/1z5L5T4.png

How many models are showing this GOM solution? I think I saw this one and GFS.

All of them show a gulf solution to some extent. It's a little early for specifics.

[BobHarlem]

12z gfs looks like it literally shreds Grace into 3 bits on Hispaniola. particularly on the 850mb vort & wind view

[gatorcane]

The GFS once again sends it into the Yucatan in the long-range while keeping it weak.

Eventually buries it into the BoC and Mexico while deepening it:

[gatorcane]

Wow look how much shear Grace puts over the EPAC as it crosses Mexico

[MrJames]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/d7hb8jt.png

Pretty close to Boca Chica with a 400 foot tall rocket sitting there.

[tolakram]

HWRF still insists on sending Grace NW, this time over Hispaniola and then into the Bahamas.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow look how much shear Grace puts over the EPAC as it crosses Mexico

https://i.postimg.cc/vZPBNvCz/gfs-shear-epac-36.png

So for the foreseeable future it looks like the shear will send any storm that tries to develop into the afterlife.

But seriously, one would have to imagine if that much EPAC shear would somehow be mechanistically tied with the Atlantic and allow the Atlantic to become more favorable over the days.

[tolakram]

Running along the north coast of Cuba. Haven't we seen this somewhere before?

[Category5Kaiju]

Running along the north coast of Cuba. Haven't we seen this somewhere before?

https://i.imgur.com/rYzpe7A.png

You mean, what if Laura did not ride the southern coast of Cuba but rather rode along its original projected track through the Florida Strait?

[aspen]

Running along the north coast of Cuba. Haven't we seen this somewhere before?

https://i.imgur.com/rYzpe7A.png

Literally just Fred 2.0.

There better not be a Fred 3.0 after this, because 2 is more than enough.

[tolakram]

I had to make sure it said Grace in the header.

[tolakram]

HWRF found some open water, here comes the ramp up. I hesitate to post this since HWRF has negative skill this year.

[captainbarbossa19]

HWRF found some open water, here comes the ramp up. I hesitate to post this since HWRF has negative skill this year.

https://i.imgur.com/5dS3jND.png

Appears to be moving WNW across the Gulf.

[aspen]

HWRF peaks as a 951 mbar major hurricane in 120hr. Obviously we’re seeing HWRF intensity bias, but if Grace takes a track like this and if it’s in a better shape entering then Gulf than Fred, then such a scenario isn’t impossible. I think another reason why the HWRF gets so aggressive is because Grace runs right over the broiling hot Loop Current.

Edit: it has an ERI phase and ends up as a 940 mbar Category 4 Hurricane by 126hr, the strongest Atlantic HWRF intensity output this year so far. HWRF bias plus the Loop Current is quite the combination.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z Euro has the strongest vorticity south of Cuba now. It's in the central Gulf at hour 96.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z Euro has the strongest vorticity south of Cuba now. It's in the central Gulf at hour 96.

It appears to be stuck now on hour 96 on Tropical Tidbits. I wonder if it is having problems?

[SconnieCane]

I've lost most of the respect I gained for the HWRF last year when it seemed to nail the pre-Gulf Coast landfall intensification of systems like Laura, Sally and Zeta that a lot of people were doubting.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[SoupBone]

12z Euro has the strongest vorticity south of Cuba now. It's in the central Gulf at hour 96.

I think you were seeing Frank. It looks like the Euro poofs her again.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z Euro has the strongest vorticity south of Cuba now. It's in the central Gulf at hour 96.

I think you were seeing Frank. It looks like the Euro poofs her again.

I don't understand the Euro. If the vorticity enters the Gulf somewhat intact, why does it degenerate back into a wave moving across the Gulf? Is there shear or dry air?

[Cpv17]

12z Euro has the strongest vorticity south of Cuba now. It's in the central Gulf at hour 96.

I think you were seeing Frank. It looks like the Euro poofs her again.

I don't understand the Euro. If the vorticity enters the Gulf somewhat intact, why does it degenerate back into a wave moving across the Gulf? Is there shear or dry air?

I wouldn’t worry much about what the Euro says.