ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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aspen
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#621 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:22 pm

90kt FL/80kt SFMR so far.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#622 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:23 pm

Next set will be in the large eye.

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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#623 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:27 pm

Visioen wrote:The eye is literally almost as big as my country :lol: (Belgium)

Well, it's much bigger than mine (Barbados).
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#624 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:27 pm

aspen wrote:90kt FL/80kt SFMR so far.


On the southern quadrant, so I imagine the NE quadrant will be closer to 100-105 knots.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#625 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:30 pm

Pressure quite a bit higher - about 967 mb.

SW quad supports 90 kt, so the NW quad probably has winds around 100 kt.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#626 Postby USTropics » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:35 pm

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1434932590083858435


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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#627 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:37 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Pressure quite a bit higher - about 967 mb.

SW quad supports 90 kt, so the NW quad probably has winds around 100 kt.

I would guess they'll find winds a *lot* stronger than 100 in the NW quad
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#628 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:38 pm

105 Knots Southern Quad & Lowest Extrapolated is 967 MB

Image

In Theory, the Northern Quad should be between 110 & 120 knots FL winds . . .
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#629 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:41 pm

Eye still contracting
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#630 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:41 pm

~110 kt FL and 100-105 kt SFMR in the N quad. This is still a major.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#631 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:42 pm

Looks like recon supports 100kts which was right on the upper edge of my estimate. Pressure was quite a bit higher than I expected though
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#632 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:43 pm

109 101
111 100

I'd guess NW quad is 105-110
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#633 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:45 pm

Pressure was higher than what the NHC had Larry as, but the intensity estimate seems dead on.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#634 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:47 pm

Eye drop supports 956mb so much lower than extrap
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#635 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:49 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Pressure was higher than what the NHC had Larry as, but the intensity estimate seems dead on.

Actually the drop supports the NHC’s current pressure estimate. Seems that this is another case of the NOAA plane’s extrapolated pressures running way higher than the actual pressure.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#636 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:49 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Pressure was higher than what the NHC had Larry as, but the intensity estimate seems dead on.


What do you mean? Even the Pressure is spot on!

Image
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#637 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:49 pm

Beast of a storm
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#638 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:49 pm

aspen wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Pressure was higher than what the NHC had Larry as, but the intensity estimate seems dead on.

Actually the drop supports the NHC’s current pressure estimate. Seems that this is another case of the NOAA plane’s extrapolated pressures running way higher than the actual pressure.


Yup, I concur. Pressure was 957mb on the recon drop.

Fantastic job by the NHC - dead on with both intensity and pressure.

Iceresistance wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Pressure was higher than what the NHC had Larry as, but the intensity estimate seems dead on.


What do you mean? Even the Pressure is spot on!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/recon_NOAA3-WB12A-LARRY_dropsonde3_20210906-1726.png


My comment was before I saw the dropsonde data.
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#639 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:50 pm

NHC sure does do a fantastic job of estimating TC intensity without recon most of the time.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#640 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:50 pm

956 mbar per dropsonde. Probably 100-105 when you account for undersampling. Score one for the Dvorak technique.
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