cycloneye wrote:Has it taken a temporary west jog?
Looks like completely due west right now.
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cycloneye wrote:Has it taken a temporary west jog?
Yellow Evan wrote:Why is the NHC or well John Cangialosi not factoring in ADT at all in its estimate or the rapid improvement in satellite presentation since 6z???
sikkar wrote:Man the WPac storms are on a totally different level. We have two intensifying canes at the same time but Mindulle can eat Sam alive with Such RI, while Sam is powering up "gracefully".
AubreyStorm wrote:cycloneye wrote:Has it taken a temporary west jog?
Looks like completely due west right now.
https://i.ibb.co/WV274f8/goes16-ir-18-L-202109250035.gif
Shell Mound wrote:
I think (E)RI is about to end shortly. WV imagery and CIMSS show outflow becoming restricted in the southwestern quadrant, as a deepening TUTT amplifies well to the northeast of the hurricane. The deepest convection is currently restricted to the western semicircle, so the white ring may not be able to wrap itself around the eye, thus confining the warm medium grey to a limited area. Instantaneous satellite estimates support ~120 kt, but the constraints would likely force the NHC to side with a lower value. Given the small size of the eye, however, one could make a case for ~125 kt at this moment. From this point onward Sam will likely struggle with increasing southwesterly shear, despite an improvement in thermodynamics due to warmer SST and higher OHC/TCHP. Also, the increasingly prominent outer band in the southeastern quadrant, a possible product of residual dry air as well as increasing southwesterly shear, will likely “strangle” the inner core by denying it low-level inflow, thus promoting an EWRC soon.
AlphaToOmega wrote:One has to wonder if Hurricane Sam could make a landfall on the East Coast. There are very strong +SSTAs off the coast of Maine, which would support strong ridging there, leading to more potential East Coast landfalls.
https://i.postimg.cc/43SFwS4P/crw-ssta-global.png
https://i.postimg.cc/Tw5NsJp6/ssta-global.png
https://i.postimg.cc/3JN0Qf3m/cdas-sflux-ssta-global-1.png
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