ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

But then there is this from Ascat A an hour earlier which may suggest Grace is an open wave, unless the LLC is very small and couldn't catch it.

[ElectricStorm]

NHC raises the forecast in the gulf a bit... I don't really see any way this doesn't make it into the gulf. Even if it's a remnant low I think something is going to make it and have a chance to get pretty strong.

[Blinhart]

I think the Northern part is starting to take over as the new area of focus for a new LLC. You can see inflow bands from the S and E. The old southern LLC is rotating SW and will dissipate soon.

https://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/grace21/Grace_15Aug21_TJUA.gif

https://i.ibb.co/Nt9cwt3/Capture2.png

I'm not so sure that's a new center, Grace is just really disorganized.

Here's a long running radar loop though https://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?650

Looking at that Radar, if there is a center it is a very large one and looks to be moving either West or WSW not WNW

[NDG]

BLP, was watching this same area all morning.
Usually lurk and learn from you guys.
Are there any obs in the area.

That is a good question. I looked at the surface obs in area don't show a LLC yet. It looks mid level right now but that could change quickly as the old LLC decays and this mlc starts working to the surface.

The NHC is going with the center of the two as a broad gyre center for now.

Surface reports don't lie, there is no LLC forming further north.

[SoupBone]

I'm wondering now with its current state if the models that poofed her weren't onto something. An open wave? Recon will give us some good info and confirm that or not.

[Cat5James]

If there is no LLC rn one can form anywhere down the road... anyone who thinks the models know what will happen after Hispanola needs to look no further then Fred...

[ScottNAtlanta]

Everyone's probably just burned out...

Dude...it's Aug 15th. That is basically the start date of the real season...

[Blown Away]

Fred/Grace being so disorganized still generate a tremendous amount of convection.

[gatorcane]

There is a chance Grace or her remnants won’t even make it to the CONUS when all is said and done. The last couple of runs of the GFS suggests this.

[ScottNAtlanta]

In Levi's video yesterday he mentioned that there were 2 steering paths. A mid-level high that would induce a more wnw direction in a deeper storm and a high in the lower levels that would push it more west. If this doesn't get organized soon I think it might go south of Hispaniola

[AutoPenalti]

In Levi's video yesterday he mentioned that there were 2 steering paths. A mid-level high that would induce a more wnw direction in a deeper storm and a high in the lower levels that would push it more west. If this doesn't get organized soon I think it might go south of Hispaniola

I just watched it a couple minutes ago and it was actually the opposite as the lower level steering flow was from the SE.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Also, if Fred gets stronger his outflow jet is gonna blast Grace as she tries to move west. That would be hard to survive.

[ScottNAtlanta]

In Levi's video yesterday he mentioned that there were 2 steering paths. A mid-level high that would induce a more wnw direction in a deeper storm and a high in the lower levels that would push it more west. If this doesn't get organized soon I think it might go south of Hispaniola

I just watched it a couple minutes ago and it was actually the opposite as the lower level steering flow was from the SE.

Ok...then reverse what I said

[Sciencerocks]

[NDG]

I really doubt the recon will find an LLC, easterly low level jet is still present underneath all the convection, any circulation is in the mid levels.

[alienstorm]

There is no define LLC however, a LLC could develop in one of two places.

1) In the area just south of San Juan and Ponce as it nears the Mona Passage
2) Further SW

Educated guess near the Mona Passage

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, looks like a wave to me...There will probably be nothing left but some scattered convection by the time it leaves Hispaniola.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This has always had two lobes of energy even since it came off of Africa. The north and south parts of the wave axis have been fighting each other the whole time. Neither has been able to win out over the other one. Until one end dissipates this is going to continue.

[blp]

This has always had two lobes of energy even since it came off of Africa. The north and south parts of the wave axis have been fighting each other the whole time. Neither has been able to win out over the other one. Until one end dissipates this is going to continue.

Agree. I think the southern one has no chance and will probably crash and burn soon over DR. After that is when you might see something.

[tolakram]

saved loop Looking at the left side you can see low level clouds slowing their westerly track, but hard to see any coming back east. I'm also thinking no LLC.