ATL: SAM - Models

[USTropics]

The mean on the 06z Eps looks like it would move into the Caribbean.

Hi Adrian. Do you have a graphic?

Here is a better representation:

[Zonacane]

00z and 06z runs on the latest CDAS SST map.

00z Euro: black, 24-240 hrs
06z GFS: sky blue, 24-240 hrs
00z CMC: green, 24-240 hrs
00z ICON: navy blue, 24-180 hrs
HMON: white, 24-120 hrs
HWRF: yellow, 24-120 hrs

https://i.imgur.com/TNsyamL.png

Euro track probably results in a category 5

[SFLcane]

The mean on the 06z Eps looks like it would move into the Caribbean.

Hi Adrian. Do you have a graphic?

Here is a better representation:
https://i.imgur.com/4la40ei.png

Yep that looks pretty certain it would go into the northern Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

Wx man57 I here you.

 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1441043372517609473

[kevin]

Looks like the Euro is really sticking to its southern track. Whatever happens now, it'll be a massive bust for either the Euro or all the other models depending on which track actually verifies. Or maybe we'll get some sort of compromise between the two possibilities.

[Shell Mound]

06z eps…

https://i.postimg.cc/ydrwgn2q/45-E3977-B-BC94-45-F6-A8-FA-61-D33-C8-B2-B36.png

https://i.postimg.cc/2S8Mwsmp/9-B1-A6217-0-A71-41-FC-A41-D-B08-C283-B7-DBA.png

Yesterday roughly three-fifths (~60%) of the fifty-one EPS ensembles showed “Sam” becoming a hurricane on or before D7 (168h) and remaining to the north of the Leeward Islands. Now more than four-fifths (> 80%) of the EPS members show “Sam” strengthening no further than ~60 kt at most during the upcoming week and tracking toward the northeastern Caribbean rather than strengthening into a hurricane and curving earlier. On the one hand, this implies an increased threat to the islands, but on the other, it also indicates a far more hostile environment—possibly due to SAL-induced, fast background flow hindering organisation, as was seen with some other systems to date—that would inhibit significant deepening. Given that “Sam” is likely to be a small, fast-moving system, even if it were to impact the islands, most locations would see relatively little impact from either rain or wind, as “Sam” would likely be no stronger than a high-end TS at that point.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1441046394324733963

[sma10]

The mean on the 06z Eps looks like it would move into the Caribbean.

Hi Adrian. Do you have a graphic?

Here is a better representation:
https://i.imgur.com/4la40ei.png

For those interests in Greater Antilles, Bahamas, etc ... note not only the further SW bunching of the Euto ensemble tracks, but the "inferred" later movement. Regardless of member strength, there is an almost universal leftward bend at the tail end of the 144hr run. Does this mean anything specific? Maybe. It's a signal that the Euro is suggesting perhaps more ridging building into the SW Atlantic next week. We have to wait for the longer 12z run to confirm.

[kevin]

Yesterday I felt the best about this missing the Caribbean and/or CONUS, but now I think the Euro's scenario is becoming more realistic. Wouldn't be shocked if most models shift signficiantly further west in the 12z cycle.

[otowntiger]

Looks like the Euro is really sticking to its southern track. Whatever happens now, it'll be a massive bust for either the Euro or all the other models depending on which track actually verifies. Or maybe we'll get some sort of compromise between the two possibilities.

That’s usually what happens- i. e. a compromise. That’s often what the NHC does and most times it works out great for the track verification.

[CyclonicFury]

06z eps…

https://i.postimg.cc/ydrwgn2q/45-E3977-B-BC94-45-F6-A8-FA-61-D33-C8-B2-B36.png

https://i.postimg.cc/2S8Mwsmp/9-B1-A6217-0-A71-41-FC-A41-D-B08-C283-B7-DBA.png

Yesterday roughly three-fifths (~60%) of the fifty-one EPS ensembles showed “Sam” becoming a hurricane on or before D7 (168h) and remaining to the north of the Leeward Islands. Now more than four-fifths (> 80%) of the EPS members show “Sam” strengthening no further than ~60 kt at most during the upcoming week and tracking toward the northeastern Caribbean rather than strengthening into a hurricane and curving earlier. On the one hand, this implies an increased threat to the islands, but on the other, it also indicates a far more hostile environment—possibly due to SAL-induced, fast background flow hindering organisation, as was seen with some other systems to date—that would inhibit significant deepening. Given that “Sam” is likely to be a small, fast-moving system, even if it were to impact the islands, most locations would see relatively little impact from either rain or wind, as “Sam” would likely be no stronger than a high-end TS at that point.

Sam seems to be organizing much quicker than most models expected. Also, Sam is NOT likely going to be a fast moving storm at all. It's going to take about 5-6 more days before it exits the MDR.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I don't think in this instance intensity matters as much as speed does. The NHC in the 11am discussion states that it will slow down. They also upped their intensity from the initially high numbers.

[Shell Mound]

06z eps…

https://i.postimg.cc/ydrwgn2q/45-E3977-B-BC94-45-F6-A8-FA-61-D33-C8-B2-B36.png

https://i.postimg.cc/2S8Mwsmp/9-B1-A6217-0-A71-41-FC-A41-D-B08-C283-B7-DBA.png

Yesterday roughly three-fifths (~60%) of the fifty-one EPS ensembles showed “Sam” becoming a hurricane on or before D7 (168h) and remaining to the north of the Leeward Islands. Now more than four-fifths (> 80%) of the EPS members show “Sam” strengthening no further than ~60 kt at most during the upcoming week and tracking toward the northeastern Caribbean rather than strengthening into a hurricane and curving earlier. On the one hand, this implies an increased threat to the islands, but on the other, it also indicates a far more hostile environment—possibly due to SAL-induced, fast background flow hindering organisation, as was seen with some other systems to date—that would inhibit significant deepening. Given that “Sam” is likely to be a small, fast-moving system, even if it were to impact the islands, most locations would see relatively little impact from either rain or wind, as “Sam” would likely be no stronger than a high-end TS at that point.

Sam seems to be organizing much quicker than most models expected. Also, Sam is NOT likely going to be a fast moving storm at all. It's going to take about 5-6 more days before it exits the MDR.

Nevertheless, a deeper short-term solution would likely be slower and track farther northeast than a shallower one would in the same timeframe.

[zal0phus]

I wonder if Sam could have a slightly more easterly Matthew-esque track. It would seem to be a reasonable middle ground among the models, if the Euro is to be most trusted.

[Spacecoast]

Comparing last 3 ECMF runs:

[SFLcane]

12z Gfs weaker perhaps trending towards euro.

[Iceresistance]

12z Gfs weaker perhaps trending towards euro.

But is also trending slight further west right now (As of +66 Hours)

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1441069723211423754

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS coming in SW through 126hrs

[RevanTheJedi96]

12Z GFS made a pretty significant shift to the West.