ATL: ELSA - Models

[Ivanhater]

18Z Hmon also much weaker and curves up the east coast of Florida

[gatorcane]

Huge shift east by the HWRF. All of peninsula Florida engulfed:

[SFLcane]

18z HWRF 87 hrs... Landfall Key West @Cat 1 heading NNW towards Naples strengthening near 85 mph...

Strengthening into Naples…

[AxaltaRacing24]

Like we said yesterday. The windshield wipers are in full effect.

[tolakram]

HWRF 18Z

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF 87 hrs... Landfall Key West @Cat 1 heading NNW towards Naples strengthening near 85 mph...

Strengthening into Naples…

Let’s hope that angle doesn’t continue N and clips NE Cuba and into SFL... Much more time over water

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/mikeremaley1/status/1411112662369456129




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1411115054683103235




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1411116175820529668




If tomorrow morning has a strengthening storm then look out

[SEASON_CANCELED]

HWRF 18Z
https://i.imgur.com/Jt9ftC9.gif

Literally a wanna-be Irma

[SFLcane]

Big shift eastward with TCVN consensus model aka Donna like.

[Steve]

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps_docs/codta/2021/tc/05L/2021070212/2021070212.000_track_g1.gif

But, no worries. It's the Navy model. Never followed here.

It makes the Canadian look good.

Sometime a blind squirrel can find a nut...but I have never seen the Navy model pick up something the others did not see

Is that not Coamps? It didn't look like the old NOGAPS (now the navgem). Sometimes Coamps beats everything. Sometimes it's out to lunch. I only looked at it for a second, but if it is Coamps, that's an interesting output. I've been calling b.s. on ICON for several days. It still kills it off and sends the energy seaward at 18z. That's most of the runs I've looked at the last several days. I don't hold ICON in particularly high regard, and I don't necessarily agree with it this time. If it's right, it's kind of the only one with some agreement of it falling apart by some runs of the European. The JMA 12z takes the energy into SW FL as many of the other models do. And it's "concentric" but not particularly strong. 18z HMON damages it in Cuba and comes up weaker and a little east. It does bring it back down to 1000mb for an SC/NC border second landfall.

[hurricane2025]

Moderate tropical storm is all we will get here, glad it’s not august though

[jlauderdal]

Big shift eastward with TCVN consensus model aka Donna like.

TCVN has had quite the journey over the last few days, NHC wont bite very hard on it at 11.

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[AxaltaRacing24]

Moderate tropical storm is all we will get here, glad it’s not august though

Hopefully I am wrong, but I sort of look at Elsa as an "appetizer" of what the core of this season might bring.

[SFLcane]

Big shift eastward with TCVN consensus model aka Donna like.

TCVN has had quite the journey over the last few days, NHC wont bite very hard on it at 11.

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Being the consensus model “ blend “ they always tend to stick close to it.

[Blown Away]

Big shift eastward with TCVN consensus model aka Donna like.

Also notice, huge slow down from N Cuba coast to @Ft Myers takes 2 days...

[Spacecoast]

Big shift eastward with TCVN consensus model aka Donna like.

TCVN has had quite the journey over the last few days, NHC wont bite very hard on it at 11.

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Being the consensus model “ blend “ they always tend to stick close to it.

TVCN is consensus of at least two from:
AVNI(GFS), EGRI(UK), HWFI, EMHI(EURO), CTCI(COAMPS), EMNI (EURO ENS MEAN)

So the CTCI, Euro, and Euro ensemble are skewing TVCN to the east.
Consensus models may not be accurate for 'fork in the road' situations, where two widely divergent solutions are forecast.
Unless,of course you choose to give equal weight to Euro, UK, and GFS...

[hurricane2025]

Moderate tropical storm is all we will get here, glad it’s not august though

Hopefully I am wrong, but I sort of look at Elsa as an "appetizer" of what the core of this season might bring.

Agree

[gatorcane]

18Z HWRF-P simulation:

[jlauderdal]

Big shift eastward with TCVN consensus model aka Donna like.

TCVN has had quite the journey over the last few days, NHC wont bite very hard on it at 11.

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Being the consensus model “ blend “ they always tend to stick close to it.

Usually they do but they were 200 miles west of it at day 5 on weds. The tcvn is settling down, the 5 day track will settle by tomorrow night

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[gatorcane]

00Z TVCN shifts east: