ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[xironman]

Getting winds in the 40 knot range.

https://imgur.com/r49JyZp

Yeah but it looks like nearly every measurement is flagged on that diagram

Time: 21:01:30Z
Coordinates: 17.983N 78.783W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.9 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 755 m (2,477 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.3 mb (29.78 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 154° at 24 kts (From the SSE at 27.6 mph)
Air Temp: 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Dew Pt: 19.1°C (66.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 25 kts (28.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 40 kts (46.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (0.04 in/hr)

[ColdMiser123]

336
WTNT64 KNHC 262116
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the
depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Ida. The maximum
sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.


SUMMARY OF 520 PM EDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 79.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cheezyWXguy]

Getting winds in the 40 knot range.

https://imgur.com/r49JyZp

Yeah but it looks like nearly every measurement is flagged on that diagram

Time: 21:01:30Z
Coordinates: 17.983N 78.783W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.9 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 755 m (2,477 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.3 mb (29.78 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 154° at 24 kts (From the SSE at 27.6 mph)
Air Temp: 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Dew Pt: 19.1°C (66.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 25 kts (28.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 40 kts (46.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (0.04 in/hr)

I take it this is one of the few that isn’t flagged

[Red eye]

18Z consensus (TVCN) shifted about 0.4 deg east of my landfall point south of Morgan City. I expected that. Landfall about the same time with TVCN (5pm-6pm Sunday). Expect the NHC to nudge the track a little east shortly. Also expect 100 kts.

Canadian model moves the "Great Labor Day Hurricane" into the Florida Panhandle. No worries for LA, it appears.

A totally would not be terrible. That path takes mostly the atchafalaya basin which is not populated. Houma and Morgan city need to look out, but massively populated areas would be spared.

[Teban54]

And just like that, we have yet another dreaded I storm.

And this one has a much better chance at retirement than Imelda and Isaias, which were both quite damaging on their own.

[tropicwatch]

Getting winds in the 40 knot range.

https://imgur.com/r49JyZp

Yeah but it looks like nearly every measurement is flagged on that diagram

Time: 21:01:30Z
Coordinates: 17.983N 78.783W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.9 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 755 m (2,477 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.3 mb (29.78 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 154° at 24 kts (From the SSE at 27.6 mph)
Air Temp: 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Dew Pt: 19.1°C (66.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 25 kts (28.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 40 kts (46.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (0.04 in/hr)

Most recently they have recorded several non-flagged TS winds. We have Ida.

[grapealcoholic]

Getting winds in the 40 knot range.

https://imgur.com/r49JyZp

Yeah but it looks like nearly every measurement is flagged on that diagram

Time: 21:01:30Z
Coordinates: 17.983N 78.783W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.9 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 755 m (2,477 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.3 mb (29.78 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 154° at 24 kts (From the SSE at 27.6 mph)
Air Temp: 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Dew Pt: 19.1°C (66.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 25 kts (28.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 40 kts (46.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (0.04 in/hr)

They're also flying very close to the ground. FL are almost as good as SFMR

[aspen]

I’ve never seen a system get upgraded in the BT, only for the NHC to not do so in the following advisory. They might do a special advisory to upgrade this based on the 35-40 kt unflagged SFMR readings and 45 kt peak FL winds.

[AlphaToOmega]

336
WTNT64 KNHC 262116
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the
depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Ida. The maximum
sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.


SUMMARY OF 520 PM EDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 79.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

[ElectricStorm]

I’ve never seen a system get upgraded in the BT, only for the NHC to not do so in the following advisory. They might do a special advisory to upgrade this based on the 35-40 kt unflagged SFMR readings and 45 kt peak FL winds.

They just upgraded it

[wx98]

Now we have a storm

[Jr0d]

Based on recon, it looks like this is a storm.

[johngaltfla]

This could easily become a major threat to New Orleans by Sunday. The conditions are improving in the Gulf and available energy/SST's are primed. This is the worst time of year for a storm like this to form in this locaiton.

[xironman]

I’ve never seen a system get upgraded in the BT, only for the NHC to not do so in the following advisory. They might do a special advisory to upgrade this based on the 35-40 kt unflagged SFMR readings and 45 kt peak FL winds.

Looks like they had a glitch. Special update 20 mins after the advisory...

[grapealcoholic]

You can see the center at the end of the loop just west of jamaica

[galaxy401]

I’ve never seen a system get upgraded in the BT, only for the NHC to not do so in the following advisory. They might do a special advisory to upgrade this based on the 35-40 kt unflagged SFMR readings and 45 kt peak FL winds.

Looks like they had a glitch. Special update 20 mins after the advisory...

Probably because when Recon first flew into the center, no TS force winds were found so the NHC was hesitant to immediately upgrade it to a TS. Once Recon flew into the NE part and found stronger winds, the trigger was pulled.

[tolakram]

I’ve never seen a system get upgraded in the BT, only for the NHC to not do so in the following advisory. They might do a special advisory to upgrade this based on the 35-40 kt unflagged SFMR readings and 45 kt peak FL winds.

Looks like they had a glitch. Special update 20 mins after the advisory...

It's happened at least 3 times in my memory. NHC is official, best track is only guidance and can be corrected by NHC.

[toad strangler]

Josh Morgerman aka iCyclone likes to refer to the area Ida hatched from as "The Carla Cradle"
LOOK OUT

[Nimbus]

This could easily become a major threat to New Orleans by Sunday. The conditions are improving in the Gulf and available energy/SST's are primed. This is the worst time of year for a storm like this to form in this locaiton.

Thats the official forecast 110 MPH winds

[grapealcoholic]

Recon turning around to investigate that MLC. Will likely find evidence of a new center forming