ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#661 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:57 am

kevco wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:The more I look at radar, the more I believe we are seeing two centers dance around one broader center. The one that was originally near Brownsville is shooting northeast and will rotate through the convection again soon. The "new" one to the north is beginning to rotate south and west. The old center is actually gaining some stronger thunderstorms as it rotates into the eastern quadrant where moisture is more abundant. Might see another tug to the north and east with time as this one rotates through and becomes stronger.


I noticed the same thing happening, look for more impacts with rain further East of the landfall position.


If my memory serves me correctly.... wxman57 made reference to that....the bulk of the precip would remain offshore....of depending on the ultimate track of Nicholas...
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#662 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:57 am

wxman57 wrote:Newly-forming center near 26.8N / 96.6W. Old center is dissipating. This puts it ashore much faster/earlier.


Landfall tonight?
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#663 Postby jasons2k » Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:58 am

The eddies are confusing everyone.

It’s just a broad center that’s open to the SW side.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#664 Postby hipshot » Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:58 am


Does anyone know if or how many oil/gas platforms are in the area as Nick travels north/northeast?
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#665 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:00 am

VDM 5 min ago
26.70N 96.69W
1004 mb
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#666 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:01 am

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#667 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:02 am

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#668 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:03 am

jasons2k wrote:The eddies are confusing everyone.

It’s just a broad center that’s open to the SW side.

I have been thinking that for a while too, but in the last 15 min or so, it seems to have chosen the original southern center. Recon seems to be telling a different story than radar, but radar is showing a lot of inflow and rapidly increasing velocities in the southern center, which is directly beneath the latest convective burst. Not sure whether this will end up as another mesovort distraction, or if it’s the push it needed to start consolidating. Guess we’ll see
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#669 Postby funster » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:06 am

Rain totals worsening? Maybe because storm is expected to go inland a bit. NWS says 8 to 16 inches with amounts greater than 20 inches possible...

 https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/1437435541688102925


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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#670 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:10 am

funster wrote:Rain totals worsening? Maybe because storm is expected to go inland a bit. NWS says 8 to 16 inches with amounts greater than 20 inches possible...

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/1437435541688102925



Parts of Southeast Harris, Brazoria, and Galveston are already nearing 2" of rain so I don't think it's all that impossible in those areas.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#671 Postby MBryant » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:11 am

Looking for organization with a very disorganized system is much like looking for diagnostics on a very worn coin. You tend to see what you are looking for instead of what's there. But somebody has to be the first to see something REAL, so go for it.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#672 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:12 am

Looks like Corpus Christy lucked out. Maybe a Galveston, Houston, Beaumont problem.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#673 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:13 am

hipshot wrote:

Does anyone know if or how many oil/gas platforms are in the area as Nick travels north/northeast?


As of April 2019, there are approximately 1,862 platforms in the Gulf of Mexico according to BSEE...NOAA has a website with a map of rigs in the Gulf, marked by red dots of their locations
Last edited by underthwx on Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#674 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:15 am

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#675 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:20 am

Latest shear mapping, get it while it's hot off the press.

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#676 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:27 am

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#677 Postby HurricaneBrain » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:27 am

Off topic - can someone post the S2K donations link? The site servers have been crashing the past 30 minutes. We need to support the admins with donations for server maintenance (if possible for you).
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#678 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:29 am

HurricaneBrain wrote:Off topic - can someone post the S2K donations link? The site servers have been crashing the past 30 minutes. We need to support the admins with donations for server maintenance (if possible for you).


The link is at the top of every page, and our servers are not crashing. Not that this should keep you from donating! You can also use the paypal button to place the donation link in your post.

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#679 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:29 am

Radar showing convection starting to fill in the SW quad of the MLC
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#680 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:31 am

Saw a very nicely defined warm-core feature on IR and radar rotate around the MLC on the E quad.
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