ATL: IDA - Models

[Blinhart]

6zGFS with a nightmare scenario of a land falling hurricane into New Orleans in a little over 3 days...Very little time for preparations.

3 days is plenty if people did what they should of at the beginning of the season and if they didn't its still plenty of time, get ready

The models are locked in now so everyone from the LA/TX border east to Mobile needs to prepare for a major hurricane direct hit, its no more complicated than that.

You do realize that the people include the government, these people need as much time as possible to get everything set up and stage not for just during but also after.

[Fancy1001]

12z NAM 3km is very terrifying!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_ir_seus_fh26-60.gif

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_60.png

This NAM 3km sounding is from the Western Eyewall, 175 knots just above the surface!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_2021082612_fh60_sounding_25.84N_89.97W.png

Isn’t it always

[Senobia]

12z NAM 3km is very terrifying!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_ir_seus_fh26-60.gif

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_60.png

This NAM 3km sounding is from the Western Eyewall, 175 knots just above the surface!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_2021082612_fh60_sounding_25.84N_89.97W.png

Oh, that looks horrific.

[cajungal]

78 hours, landfall in Terrebonne Parish, 953mb

https://i.imgur.com/FWWs4cL.png

Thibodaux here, Lafourche parish. This is making me nervous

[ElectricStorm]

12z NAM 3km is very terrifying!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_ir_seus_fh26-60.gif

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_60.png

This NAM 3km sounding is from the Western Eyewall, 175 knots just above the surface!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_2021082612_fh60_sounding_25.84N_89.97W.png

Oh, that looks horrific.

Don't worry about it it's the NAM it's always trash

[Fancy1001]

At 72 hours, GFS making a line for SELA, Terrebonne.

Very similar to Katrina

Let’s hope not in strength.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS

[cheezyWXguy]

12z NAM 3km is very terrifying!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_ir_seus_fh26-60.gif

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_60.png

This NAM 3km sounding is from the Western Eyewall, 175 knots just above the surface!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_2021082612_fh60_sounding_25.84N_89.97W.png

Isn’t it always

Yep. The NAM is a terrible intensity model, and does this for literally every hurricane in the gulf. However, it can be a little more useful for synoptics like ridge placement or mesoscale features

[SoupBone]

78 hours, landfall in Terrebonne Parish, 953mb

https://i.imgur.com/FWWs4cL.png

Thibodaux here, Lafourche parish. This is making me nervous

<--- Terrebonne Parish native, lots of family still there including parents and grandparents. stuffy consistency with this GFS and the previous run. And the GEFS is very tightly clustered at 54 hours so far.

[Javlin]

Looks similar to me, I expect more let and right shifts, but hopefully not too much.

Using the courser and 06/12z runs back and forth at respected times about .2'=12 miles W from the 06 run that's an approximation.It was up to .5'degree through much of the run then the last 12hrs a more N component.

[Blinhart]

Not sure why anyone is trusting any model for storm intensity. Best guess is low end cat 3 from me, I'll believe stronger once it gets in the gulf and we know what the upper air pattern is. People should be planning for a major and not hanging onto a category or two when deciding, that's for sure.

I would argue track as well. There's a lot of sighs of relief going on this morning in Houston, but frankly I'm not sure why. If it heads to the TX/LA border, there will be impacts to Houston.

Like the experts at the NHC say time and time again....always plan for a category higher, during a hurricane event..base your decisions on information based facts...planning for a cyclone helps keep us safer during one...

So what would you suggest for us to plan for a Cat 3, which would be 1 category higher right now, or a Cat 4 which would be one category higher for this afternoon, or a Cat 5 which might be a possibility tomorrow or the next day? And we could start feeling weather from this system Saturday night, Sunday morning, when should we be doing all this planning? This situation is actually quite nerve racking.

[PTPatrick]

Wouldn’t put much stock in nam predication, other than to indicate conditions are favorable…if memory serves you give nam even slightly favorable conditions and it can overboard. Bits not looking great for New Orleans area but want to see better formed center and a couple more runs thought before we get carried away. This is the angle of approach we don’t like to see, as all these storms from the south are big surge monsters if they get strong enough. Gfs nudged a tad west but not enough to make huge differences in forecast at this point... beyond 60 it’s closer to prev run so evens out…. Waiting to see an HWRf soon…

[karenfromheaven]

Experimental HAFS-B right at the edge of Cat 4:

[SoupBone]

12Z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/1LigwzE.gif

This setup would spell disaster for low-lying areas in coastal Terrebonne. Something they haven't experienced in quite some time.

[tolakram]

I would argue track as well. There's a lot of sighs of relief going on this morning in Houston, but frankly I'm not sure why. If it heads to the TX/LA border, there will be impacts to Houston.

Like the experts at the NHC say time and time again....always plan for a category higher, during a hurricane event..base your decisions on information based facts...planning for a cyclone helps keep us safer during one...

So what would you suggest for us to plan for a Cat 3, which would be 1 category higher right now, or a Cat 4 which would be one category higher for this afternoon, or a Cat 5 which might be a possibility tomorrow or the next day? And we could start feeling weather from this system Saturday night, Sunday morning, when should we be doing all this planning? This situation is actually quite nerve racking.

CAT 5, every year. Plan for the worst, hope for the best. Playing category games, or as I see some doing, making like we have the same forecasting skill as we did in 2005, is a dangerous game. We had a blowup in the Laura model thread last year over this. Plan for a short stay well out of the area and hope for the best.

[Blinhart]

12z NAM 3km is very terrifying!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_ir_seus_fh26-60.gif

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_60.png

This NAM 3km sounding is from the Western Eyewall, 175 knots just above the surface!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_2021082612_fh60_sounding_25.84N_89.97W.png

If this would come to truth, that would destroy almost all of South Louisiana south of I-10, don't know what 200 MPH storm would do.

[cajungal]

12Z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/1LigwzE.gif

This setup would spell disaster for low-lying areas in coastal Terrebonne. Something they haven't experienced in quite some time.

True. Levee broke in southern part of parish for Rita. A storm that hit 200 miles away. Went through Andrew as a teen in Terrebonne parish. Luckily I am in northern part of Lafourche and not by a bayou and far enough inland to not have surge from the gulf. But not liking this at all

[aspen]

12z NAM 3km is very terrifying!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_ir_seus_fh26-60.gif

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_60.png

This NAM 3km sounding is from the Western Eyewall, 175 knots just above the surface!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_2021082612_fh60_sounding_25.84N_89.97W.png

I was wondering how long it would take before the NAM began smoking crack. This isn’t as ridiculous as, say, blowing up Arthur ‘20 into a May Cat 5, but this is still excessive. If this goes sub-910, I’ll eat my hat.

[SconnieCane]

For some reason this system has disappeared from the HWRF menu on TT as either 99L or 09L

[underthwx]

I would argue track as well. There's a lot of sighs of relief going on this morning in Houston, but frankly I'm not sure why. If it heads to the TX/LA border, there will be impacts to Houston.

Like the experts at the NHC say time and time again....always plan for a category higher, during a hurricane event..base your decisions on information based facts...planning for a cyclone helps keep us safer during one...

So what would you suggest for us to plan for a Cat 3, which would be 1 category higher right now, or a Cat 4 which would be one category higher for this afternoon, or a Cat 5 which might be a possibility tomorrow or the next day? And we could start feeling weather from this system Saturday night, Sunday morning, when should we be doing all this planning? This situation is actually quite nerve racking.

I feel you on how nerve wracking this is....I an a victim of a cyclone that landfalled over 300 miles away from where my home was affected....and there is no plan I know of, that would change what I personally experienced...all I am saying is pay attention to your local emergency officials..heed their advice and warnings...plan the best way, and the safest way you possibly can to remove yourself, and the ones you love from harm's way...if you are within an area under imminent threat from a cyclone....do whatever you need to do to stay safe.....believe me when I say.....I feel you