ATL: ELSA - Models

[USTropics]

Yeah seems like the models are very confused, not entirely sure why though. This is going to be a critical night...

Also, assuming Elsa clips south Haiti, how mountainous exactly is that part of the country? I feel like very minute details of the terrain can matter especially in this kind of scenario.

Haiti


Cuba

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF seems weaker though. It’s further north.

[Blown Away]

HWRF seems weaker though. It’s further north.

Only weaker near Cuba b/c it taking the land road, 50 miles N or S I bet HWRF shows a major hurricane. Does keep adjusting N over past few runs.

[Nuno]

HWRF looks like it will take the long way across Cuba

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070300/hwrf_ref_05L_14.png

Aka the "Ernesto"

[Jr0d]

HWRF seems weaker though. It’s further north.

Only weaker near Cuba b/c it taking the land road, 50 miles N or S I bet HWRF shows a major hurricane. Does keep adjusting N over past few runs.

I much rather the storm pass north of me than just south or west(Key West). For about 48 hours now we have been in the center of the forecast, now I am getting concerned. The intensity forecast is particularly annoying....such a small track change will be the difference between minimal tropical storm conditions to possible a major hurricane.

This is the first time the consensus has shifted right....time will tell if it is a trend. It seems like most storms that initially forecast to hit Florida end up being right of the early forecasts....I can only hope this trend continues.

While the latest HWRF is good news for the Florida Keys, it is certainly not set in stone. Hopefully by Sunday morning there is some confidence in the guidance so I can relax or finish my preparations.

I'm eagerly awaiting the next GFS run...hopefully it has the upper air data.

[AxaltaRacing24]

HWRF seems weaker though. It’s further north.

Only weaker near Cuba b/c it taking the land road, 50 miles N or S I bet HWRF shows a major hurricane. Does keep adjusting N over past few runs.

I much rather the storm pass north of me than just south or west(Key West). For about 48 hours now we have been in the center of the forecast, now I am getting concerned. The intensity forecast is particularly annoying....such a small track change will be the difference between minimal tropical storm conditions to possible a major hurricane.

This is the first time the consensus has shifted right....time will tell if it is a trend. It seems like most storms that initially forecast to hit Florida end up being right of the early forecasts....I can only hope this trend continues.

While the latest HWRF is good news for the Florida Keys, it is certainly not set in stone. Hopefully by Sunday morning there is some confidence in the guidance so I can relax or finish my preparations.

I'm eagerly awaiting the next GFS run...hopefully it has the upper air data.

Storms in this kind of setup seem like they always tend to come in a bit more east than the final track shows.

[Blown Away]

00z EURO... Finally shows up to the party... Basically follows current NHC track with lots of Cuba interaction and begins to deepen riding W coast of Florida...

[Kingarabian]

Ah king Euro

[Shell Mound]

Ah king Euro
https://i.imgur.com/4cnCKc8.gif

Interestingly, this run shows Elsa weakening prior to landfall on the extreme western tip of the Tiburon Peninsula in Haiti. Yet the same run is also indicating more conducive conditions in the eastern Gulf of Mexico vs. the Caribbean. Nevertheless, this run is still among the strongest of the ECMWF to date, and evinces a significant upturn vs. previous runs, especially over the eastern GoM and Florida. So perhaps the ECMWF is seeing a favourable trough-interaction over the GoM, à la Charley (2004) or Michael (2018), albeit on a far less extreme scale.

[redingtonbeach]

Am I reading the models right - nearly 8" precipitation in CFL Tues-Wed?

[Blown Away]

Am I reading the models right - nearly 8" precipitation in CFL Tues-Wed?

Most likely b/c FL Peninsula will be on the “dirty” side and Elsa will be moving a lot slower passing FL.

[Shell Mound]

The 00Z HWRF shifted eastward once again, moving the projected LF from Fort Myers (18Z) to Everglades City.

On this run, too, Elsa does deepen up until landfall, but is weaker vs. earlier due to more interaction with Cuba.

[Hammy]

So are we getting a consensus now that Elsa may dissipate before Cuba, but also redevelop after? This really shows how unfavorable the overall surface flow in the central Caribbean is when you don't already have a high-end hurricane or lack 100% ideal atmospheric conditions.

[Blown Away]

Subtle changes in the angle Elsa takes near Cuba may make a big difference for Florida.
1. Elsa rides below Cuba and crosses Cuba at a sharper angle near 81W she will likely be strong moving up W side of Florida.
2. Elsa takes a little sharper R and comes off N Cuba near 77W and would have time to strengthen before SFL.
3. Elsa goes E of Florida, not likely now, but still on table.

[TimSmith]

Euro 72 hours, open wave off SE Florida coast:

https://i.postimg.cc/Hs9czmFy/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-4.png

It just keeps saying, "let it go Elsa! You are a monster!"

On behalf of about 20 million people and a bunch of tourists, let's hope it's smarter than all of us and that forecast cones to fruition: little bit upper shear + da shredder island = poof

[Cat5James]

06Z GFS brings a weak Tropical Storm off the coast of Naples early Tuesday. Eastward shift from previous run.

[Nimbus]

Euro and GFS are both in the gulf so the model cone is actually widening after the 00z run.
NHC now calling for more favorable conditions if Elsa stays off of Hispaniola.
BamD deep steering for a stronger storm is apparently more west than shallow layer steering?

[karenfromheaven]

HAFS-B gives Elsa a severe thrashing in Haiti and Cuba, and tosses her remains ashore in Fort Myers:

[Ivanhater]

Hwrf and Hmon already have this exiting the east coast of Florida and up the eastern seaboard early Wednesday morning. She is booking it.

[hurricane2025]

Good rain maker for Florida.