ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

is recon out there? is it showing any deepening and winds mixing down?

They're about to make a center pass shortly

[Cat5James]

There is a clear westward component now on radar. I’m going to say there’s no way this completely misses Montaulk

[jaxfladude]

Henri is going to be like a noreaster right side will be the windy side with more storm surge while the left side gets most of the precipitation.

Was hoping someone else was thinking the same, sorry if mentioned before, I'm just quick reading posts....

[Kohlecane]

mention of a double eyewall formation on radar that will replace and rebuild back a tighter one, wonder if this will disrupt some of the pressures recon is getting trying to swing through

[toad strangler]

mention of a double eyewall formation on radar that will replace and rebuild back a tighter one, wonder if this will disrupt some of the pressures recon is getting trying to swing through

Heading into much colder water now. Any intensification will be short lived.

[cane5]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined
This loop Is very interesting to me you can see that ULL really pulling this in

good call on that loop and ULL...hit that left turn a lot harder than i thought it would

Now the million dollar question is how much more of the component will pull it further, Just interesting to me, like you said thats a hard jog if you watch it on larger frames as opposed to a basic 12/24

I bet that strong left turn is associated with a deep high pressure ridge which we have seen all summer. Once the trough moved out now it naturally will have that western component until landfall.

[sikkar]

Eye like indentation on IR.

[CronkPSU]

There is a clear westward component now on radar. I’m going to say there’s no way this completely misses Montaulk

at this point, it would almost have to turn back to straight north to completely miss it and no indication of that on radar or satellite nor do any of the models turn it back to due North til almost Monday

[Hammy]

Have we actually gotten any hurricane-force winds at the surface this flight? Seems like it's not mixing down to the surface much.

[Cat5James]

This has always been a Suffolk storm and I’m surprised that the track indicates offshore Long Island. Again this is not missing Montaulk

[Ubuntwo]

Have we actually gotten any hurricane-force winds at the surface this flight? Seems like it's not mixing down to the surface much.

They have not sampled the SE quad, which is where hurricane force winds were recorded on past flights.

[Sciencerocks]

[galaxy401]

Yeah moving NNW now. How much it moves west is key here.

[CronkPSU]

Am I crazy or didn’t the NHC use to put out 2 hour updates when storms got close to landfall?

[Sciencerocks]

[KBBOCA]

Forgive me if others have already posted this. I've just read the last few pages of this discussion. But definitely some heavy training rain in NYC and Northern NJ.

 https://twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY/status/1429332420885553155




 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1429329923827716096




 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1429328310329397253




Stay safe all!

[Airboy]

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 986.6 mb from recon. Moving north with a bit of western bend from last fix.

Dropsonde
Coordinates: 39.7N 71.0W

987mb (29.15 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 24.9°C (77°F) 115° (from the ESE) 10 knots (12 mph)

[Sciencerocks]

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/WMSBG/status/1429269429431513090



 https://twitter.com/Wxmanms1/status/1429303525209743364



 https://twitter.com/PavanFederico00/status/1429352365363171333

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/Mighty__Muffins/status/1429353985979387911



 https://twitter.com/hurricanejourn/status/1429356871756914692



 https://twitter.com/BoundarylayerB/status/1429358416573644804




Remarkably, Henri looks better organised now than it has to date, just as it moves north of the Gulf Stream. Its presentation is improving on radar/IR.

I don’t believe that there has ever been a hurricane making landfall on southern New England while intensifying, except 1894 #5 and Carol (1954).

Edit: the latest radar imagery indicates that the southeastern quadrant is weakening, as SST begin to decrease sharply closer to southern New England.