ATL: IDA - Models

[Iceresistance]

12z NAM 3km is very terrifying!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_ir_seus_fh26-60.gif

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_60.png

This NAM 3km sounding is from the Western Eyewall, 175 knots just above the surface!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_2021082612_fh60_sounding_25.84N_89.97W.png

If this would come to truth, that would destroy almost all of South Louisiana south of I-10, don't know what 200 MPH storm would do.

Also, the NAM 2km has this as a Pinhole eye monster . . .

[skyline385]

For some reason this system has disappeared from the HWRF menu on TT as either 99L or 09L

Standard stuff, always happens when a system is being renamed. It will pop up for 12Z as 09L

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Guys, the NAM is not coupled correctly for tropical cyclones. Please consider that before posting those "doom" images. The bar for 09L is high, but not Hurricane Patricia levels.

[ElectricStorm]

Please don't post the NAM. Some people (guests/lurkers) may not realize it's a trash model for TC's. But yes a strong storm is likely. 200mph? Nope

[BobHarlem]

Please don't post the NAM. Some people (guests/lurkers) may not realize it's a trash model for TC's. But yes a strong storm is likely. 200mph? Nope

The Nam had showed Henri as a Cat 5 off Maryland, it should never be used for Tropical Cyclones.

[Drewsey]

78 hours, landfall in Terrebonne Parish, 953mb

https://i.imgur.com/FWWs4cL.png

Thibodaux here, Lafourche parish. This is making me nervous

Likewise...Sitting in Raceland.

[SunnyThoughts]

I would argue track as well. There's a lot of sighs of relief going on this morning in Houston, but frankly I'm not sure why. If it heads to the TX/LA border, there will be impacts to Houston.

Like the experts at the NHC say time and time again....always plan for a category higher, during a hurricane event..base your decisions on information based facts...planning for a cyclone helps keep us safer during one...

So what would you suggest for us to plan for a Cat 3, which would be 1 category higher right now, or a Cat 4 which would be one category higher for this afternoon, or a Cat 5 which might be a possibility tomorrow or the next day? And we could start feeling weather from this system Saturday night, Sunday morning, when should we be doing all this planning? This situation is actually quite nerve racking.

Just plan for worst case scenario. Start today. Fill cars up with gas. Get some cash from ATM... power goes out..no gas or teller machines. Fill up any containers you have with water and put in freezer...it will keep your frozen foods colder, ...longer, can also drink it as it melts. Fill up bathtub with water, can use to flush toilets. Have plenty of flashlights and batteries. Canned foods and a regular old manual can opener as well, Tomorrow will be Chaos, if it isnt already.

[cheezyWXguy]

CMC joins the party with a slightly stronger 500mb high. I doubt this means any significant west shifts but it probably signifies the end of east shifts.

[SoupBone]

GEFS still tightly clustered in SELA, but a few stray members into Texas.

[SoupBone]

CMC joins the party with a slightly stronger 500mb high. I doubt this means any significant west shifts but it probably signifies the end of east shifts.

Previous run to this run. Slightly stronger ridge, but it doesn't look like it changes anything.

[Fancy1001]

For some reason this system has disappeared from the HWRF menu on TT as either 99L or 09L

Give it an hour and it will be up as 09L

[tailgater]

6zGFS with a nightmare scenario of a land falling hurricane into New Orleans in a little over 3 days...Very little time for preparations.

3 days is plenty if people did what they should of at the beginning of the season and if they didn't its still plenty of time, get ready

The models are locked in now so everyone from the LA/TX border east to Mobile needs to prepare for a major hurricane direct hit, its no more complicated than that.

So anyone in this area that needs to evacuate needs to start now, you do realize how large an area you are talking about, there aren’t that many hotels available within 500 miles. Just saying maybe we need it narrowed down a little bit.

[Steve]

CMC is coming in with a western component still. This is different than what usually happens and would probably indicate strengthening up until landfall or at least maintaining vs. fading northeast and getting absorbed/weakening. Looks to come in around Grand Isle/Fourchon which means everyone from Harrison County over to Terrebonne are going to get hit pretty hard <-- per the CMC.

However, CMC is fast and landfalls Sunday am. I haven't looked at ICON or GFS 12z to see if they have sped up landfall as well.

[Kohlecane]

Time will tell, and I say that because who knows what this storm thumbprint will leave us for the rest of the season, newest GFS has a TC nearly in the same forecasted spot at TD NINE in a little over a week from now

[underthwx]

Looks similar to me, I expect more let and right shifts, but hopefully not too much.

https://i.imgur.com/NwyWPCZ.png

Which models do you lend most credence to?

[tolakram]

Looks similar to me, I expect more let and right shifts, but hopefully not too much.

https://i.imgur.com/NwyWPCZ.png

Which models do you lend most credence to?

None. NHC forecast is out, they are far better than any individual model and have verification to prove it. They use a blend, plus the Florida State super ensemble program that makes for a very accurate forecast.

[jlauderdal]

6zGFS with a nightmare scenario of a land falling hurricane into New Orleans in a little over 3 days...Very little time for preparations.

3 days is plenty if people did what they should of at the beginning of the season and if they didn't its still plenty of time, get ready

The models are locked in now so everyone from the LA/TX border east to Mobile needs to prepare for a major hurricane direct hit, its no more complicated than that.

So anyone in this area that needs to evacuate needs to start now, you do realize how large an area you are talking about, there aren’t that many hotels available within 500 miles. Just saying maybe we need it narrowed down a little bit.

I havent seen anyone calling for evacuations.

[Blinhart]

Like the experts at the NHC say time and time again....always plan for a category higher, during a hurricane event..base your decisions on information based facts...planning for a cyclone helps keep us safer during one...

So what would you suggest for us to plan for a Cat 3, which would be 1 category higher right now, or a Cat 4 which would be one category higher for this afternoon, or a Cat 5 which might be a possibility tomorrow or the next day? And we could start feeling weather from this system Saturday night, Sunday morning, when should we be doing all this planning? This situation is actually quite nerve racking.

Just plan for worst case scenario. Start today. Fill cars up with gas. Get some cash from ATM... power goes out..no gas or teller machines. Fill up any containers you have with water and put in freezer...it will keep your frozen foods colder, ...longer, can also drink it as it melts. Fill up bathtub with water, can use to flush toilets. Have plenty of flashlights and batteries. Canned foods and a regular old manual can opener as well, Tomorrow will be Chaos, if it isnt already.

I do that normally, just asking the question because of what was said earlier.

[skyline385]

While models are locked in, remember all of them are running without any recon info. If the recon manages to get there before 0Z runs, then it will decide what 09L will actually look like.

[Christiana]

I am in Pass Christian, MGC, 28ft of surge in Katrina, lost it all. I am SO stressed right now. Local WM is closing today at 2 due to Covid outbreak, do I make a trip for supplies? Start preparing to evacuate? HELP. I am limited financially due to just paying an astronomical NFIP premium, ironic huh?