ATL: SAM - Models

[aspen]

Well that’s not a comforting run for anyone in New England. Good thing the Euro is an outlier and not the center of a multi-model consensus track.

[pgoss11]

New England could get whacked

[kevin]

Euro+240

[jlauderdal]

GFS cocktail hour should be interesting, the euro wants a zillion pages on this thread, and its going to get it if this continues much longer...just remember, its September 23 and 10 days from now the euro still doesn't have a system on the shores of the united states and we will be in the first week of October, climatology is your best bet this deep into the season

[IcyTundra]

Euro still has a westerly component to the track at the end of the run moving NNW. The key will be when it begins the turn to the NE. New England can definently get hit by this.

[chris_fit]

Full Run.

[grapealcoholic]

That Euro was a cliffhanger with a big "fooled you" at the end.

That definitely makes landfall

[Teban54]

Well that’s not a comforting run for anyone in New England. Good thing the Euro is an outlier and not the center of a multi-model consensus track.

It's crazy that 12z GFS and Euro, despite their completely different solutions, both end up threatening New England in the end.

[kevin]

Full Run.

https://i.imgur.com/yChlnnl.gif

New England is definitely in play in this run.

[Hurricaneman]

Full Run.

https://i.imgur.com/yChlnnl.gif

New England is definitely in play in this run.

The fact that the GFS is slowly adjusting towards the Euro is concerning for the eastern seaboard

[grapealcoholic]

It's good that at least one major model is showing something ominous; keeps everyone on their toes

[Hurricaneman]

Actually the track on the Euro is similar to something between Gloria and 1938 so the Carolinas to New England really need to monitor this with an outside chance of the Southeastern US and Florida

[sma10]

Well that’s not a comforting run for anyone in New England. Good thing the Euro is an outlier and not the center of a multi-model consensus track.

The most important variable is that it's a 10 day run. We get so caught up in model runs we forget how totally unreliable 10 day trough/ridge alignments are.

120hrs from now, the GFS, Euro and UK all have Sam only at ~16N. 5 days! By then, we can be looking at an entirely different scenario altogether

[dspguy]

That Euro was a cliffhanger with a big "fooled you" at the end.

That definitely makes landfall

Hard to say. It might, it might not. Of course, this is 10 days out and that won't be the path it takes. If those last two frames are where it actually winds up on Day 9 and 10, it still might miss anyway.

[jlauderdal]

Well that’s not a comforting run for anyone in New England. Good thing the Euro is an outlier and not the center of a multi-model consensus track.

It's crazy that 12z GFS and Euro, despite their completely different solutions, both end up threatening New England in the end.

That's the problem, one or both of them is getting there by accident, we will see but I'm going with OTS until further notice.

[LarryWx]

Good news is that almost all 12Z EPS members recurve offshore the US.

[jlauderdal]

Good news is that almost all 12Z EPS members recurve offshore the US.

If the gfs has more of the same in a couple of hours, this thread gets real quiet. It will be an interesting system as to how much ACE it can produce and does Bermuda get spared, somehow the little island that could sure does manage to get direct hits more than they deserve, its a great place to visit.

[underthwx]

Good news is that almost all 12Z EPS members recurve offshore the US.

.

If Sams forward motion slows to a crawl around Day 5 or so....how could that affect the models....along with a stronger than anticipated cyclone by that timeframe?...

[IcyTundra]

Well that’s not a comforting run for anyone in New England. Good thing the Euro is an outlier and not the center of a multi-model consensus track.

It's crazy that 12z GFS and Euro, despite their completely different solutions, both end up threatening New England in the end.

That's the problem, one or both of them is getting there by accident, we will see but I'm going with OTS until further notice.

What do you mean by accident?

[cheezyWXguy]

Really not liking that the gfs is showing a direct landfall, and coming into line with euro. Granted, I would hardly call two deterministic model runs a trend, but as others have said before, that upper low is a wildcard that could fling this right into the northeast