ATL: ELSA - Models

[hurricane2025]

Euro new run shifted way west and weaker

[3090]

Euro new run shifted way west and weaker

Oh no. Now what?

[hurricane2025]

Nothing, weak weak

[SFLcane]

12z Tcvn shifted way east now almost up the spine of Florida into Naples.

[Canelaw99]

Haiti
https://i.imgur.com/bb4UjGc.jpg

Cuba
https://i.imgur.com/vhAqSBM.jpg

These maps should be pinned to the top for the season

[AlabamaDave]

Haiti
https://i.imgur.com/bb4UjGc.jpg

Cuba
https://i.imgur.com/vhAqSBM.jpg

These maps should be pinned to the top for the season

I like to go to Google Maps and turn on terrain view:
https://www.google.com/maps/@18.7104509,-72.881147,9.21z/data=!5m1!1e4

Or use the satellite view in 3D mode. On a PC, hold down the Ctrl key to tilt the 3D angle to get a better view of the terrain:
https://www.google.com/maps/@17.7966646,-74.1130996,59644a,35y,9.9h,40.76t/data=!3m1!1e3!5m1!1e4

[Kat5]

12z GFS weaker and looks like it dissipates it over Cuba.

[CDO62]

It looks to be restrengthening once North of Cuba.

[hurricane2025]

Gfs really weak

[CDO62]

If this run was to verify, the biggest threat would seem to be heavy rainfall along the entire Florida West coast.

[CFLHurricane]

If this run was to verify, the biggest threat would seem to be heavy rainfall along the entire Florida West coast.

Well that’s certainly a relief!

Of course nothing is ever certain until the storm clears the Caribbean islands, but I think the weaker trends are likely considering the speed of the storm and the climatology for July.

[Jr0d]

The HWRF is starting to run....so far very bullish with a CDO appearing at 0Z...8pm EDT.

Currently it is the only model that keeps Elsa as a strong storm after Cuba and into the Florida Straits....all the other show a weak TS or less.

[Steve]

12z's

CMC hits weakly around Miami but intensifies the way up to to the SC coast and then emerges as a TS still from the VA coast.

GFS - already addressed by others

ICON comes up very weak on the W side of Florida finally hitting near the Big Bend. It gets better defined crossing land which it exits around the NC/VA border. ICON had been spitting all the energy out to sea for the majority of this week's runs that had it in range. The getting better organized coming up north of 30N has been a bit of a theme so far this season as many people know. We'll see if the ICON is right or if we see this trend again with Elsa.

NAM 12km & NAM 32km just pulse the energy across the southern Gulf. Not impossible, but not likely.

HMON does little with it so far on its run to 39 hours; HWRF through 27 hours has a 989mb storm getting closer to Eastern Cuba.

[StormTracker]

Haiti
https://i.imgur.com/bb4UjGc.jpg

Cuba
https://i.imgur.com/vhAqSBM.jpg

These maps should be pinned to the top for the season

I agree! Already saved on my laptop. Thanks to those who posted them!

[NDG]

For whatever is worth 18z ICON came in stronger than previous runs, still weak but not like an open wave.

[NorthPalm-Rainman]

Looks like 18z GFS has it falling apart over Cuba at least up to 54 hours from now.

[DestinHurricane]

This GFS has a very poor initialization

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Sort of off-topic but I live in Tampa area...was gonna travel to Wisconsin next week.

What do you think the chances are this will be a nothingburger and i can go? When are the models honed in for more accuracy so i can make a decision?

Obvouisly not gonna leave if a Cat 1 or 2 comes.

[jhpigott]

18z HWRF stronger and slightly N thru 18 hours

[blp]

18z HWRF stronger and slightly N thru 18 hours

Yes, much stronger.. 984 in 15hrs.