ATL: ELSA - Models

[ElectricStorm]

Nearing Cuba at 978mb

[N2FSU]

978mb +21hr


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[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210703/9c06aa04c178a0a08d5a1c55681044c9.jpg
978mb +21hr


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Very poor initialization IMO, has the MLC nearly stacked with the LLC. In reality, the two are quite separated.

Despite my gushing for the HWRF early, it has handled Esla poorly since its intensification to hurricane status.

[Steve]

Sort of off-topic but I live in Tampa area...was gonna travel to Wisconsin next week.

What do you think the chances are this will be a nothingburger and i can go? When are the models honed in for more accuracy so i can make a decision?

Obvouisly not gonna leave if a Cat 1 or 2 comes.

? This one’s more variable than usual inside 4 days.

[Ivanhater]

Keep in mind hwrf had is much stronger than it actually is now all day yesterday

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Keep in mind hwrf had is much stronger than it actually is now all day yesterday

Very true. The HWRF is an outlier. GFS/CMC/EURO etc. continue to show continued weakening over the next 12-24 hours.

[toad strangler]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210703/9c06aa04c178a0a08d5a1c55681044c9.jpg
978mb +21hr


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Very poor initialization IMO, has the MLC nearly stacked with the LLC. In reality, the two are quite separated.

Despite my gushing for the HWRF early, it has handled Esla poorly since its intensification to hurricane status.

a

Ya, Elsa has been searching for her head for a long time now.

[eastcoastFL]

Emerges from Cuba east of key west deepening

[eastcoastFL]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210703/9c06aa04c178a0a08d5a1c55681044c9.jpg
978mb +21hr


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Very poor initialization IMO, has the MLC nearly stacked with the LLC. In reality, the two are quite separated.

Despite my gushing for the HWRF early, it has handled Esla poorly since its intensification to hurricane status.

It has absolutely nailed the track but as usual it’s overkill with intensity. I do like how well it’s done on track, intensity forecasting is still a guessing game.

[marciacubed]

Emerges from Cuba east of key west deepening

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070318/hwrf_mslp_wind_05L_18.png

This would not be good for Surfside.

[eastcoastFL]

Cruising through the keys

[NDG]

Don't throw out the HWRF out the window, once Elsa slows down later tonight there is the benefict of doubt that it will strengthen some between Cuba and Jamaica.
If it clips Cabo Cruz Cuba instead of going up the Sierra Mountains it could maintain its strength before going over the FL straights.
Lets not forget how horrible the GFS and Euro intensity forecasts did last year with storms in the GOM.

[CourierPR]

Emerges from Cuba east of key west deepening

That's SSE of Key West.

[eastcoastFL]

Even as a 994mb storm in the keys it’s ugly on IR

[eastcoastFL]

Emerges from Cuba east of key west deepening

That's SSE of Key West.

Tomato potato

Here it’s E of Key west

[eastcoastFL]

[ElectricStorm]

985mb FL landfall on HWRF

[Ivanhater]

If the HWRF had this correct yesterday, it would be down to 970 as we speak. Every other model keeps this weak through the Gulf and has been much more accurate with intensity today.

If this doesn't get its act together tomorrow, we know the HWRF is once again out to lunch.

[SFLcane]

Hwrf much stronger!

[eastcoastFL]

Peninsula landfall