ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#761 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:29 pm

Just when it was forming an eyewall the shear blew it off just on time as predicted...
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#762 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:30 pm

tropicwatch wrote:
aspen wrote:Will there be another recon flight before landfall?


There is not one scheduled tell tomorrow morning.


Tomorrow morning in Greenwich.

E. 13/2300Z TO 14/0530Z
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#763 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:31 pm

LSU Saint wrote:Only 2-4” in Houston now? That’s hard to believe looking at the radar, but I don’t know much when it comes to this


Was mentioning model forecasts (EC & GFS). Certainly higher in southern Harris County.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#764 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:32 pm

Looks like east side of Matagorda Bay for landfall, btw. Radar is indicating the MLC. LLC is a bit SSW-SW of that.

Oh, and I'm cancelling winter for SE TX this year. Too much cold last year.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#765 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:33 pm

Main threat in the Houston metro should be in SE Harris, Galveston County, Brazoria County, and Chambers County the rest of the Houston area should make it out ok.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#766 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:34 pm

xironman wrote:
tropicwatch wrote:
aspen wrote:Will there be another recon flight before landfall?


There is not one scheduled tell tomorrow morning.


Tomorrow morning in Greenwich.

E. 13/2300Z TO 14/0530Z

That’s so odd. Why weren’t 6-hour fixes scheduled for a system that’ll make landfall soon? Waiting that long will mean valuable data will be missed.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#767 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:35 pm

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#768 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:35 pm

FPST2 at 28.936 N 95.294 W has a ENE wind

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 19 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 22 kts
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.92 in
Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.5 °F
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#769 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:38 pm

aspen wrote:
xironman wrote:
tropicwatch wrote:
There is not one scheduled tell tomorrow morning.


Tomorrow morning in Greenwich.

E. 13/2300Z TO 14/0530Z

That’s so odd. Why weren’t 6-hour fixes scheduled for a system that’ll make landfall soon? Waiting that long will mean valuable data will be missed.


Meaning it will take off at about 6pm today CDT as opposed to tomorrow UTC
Last edited by xironman on Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#770 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:38 pm

I do want to mention that today was the landfall of 2 Hurricanes in the Houston NWS Area . . .

Humberto (CAT 1, 2007)
Ike (CAT 2, 2008)
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#771 Postby kassi » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:38 pm

IcyTundra wrote:Main threat in the Houston metro should be in SE Harris, Galveston County, Brazoria County, and Chambers County the rest of the Houston area should make it out ok.

Is the flood threat reduced for the Golden Triangle as well?
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#772 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:41 pm

Looks like it's running out of time to tighten up before landfall. I will gladly take the L on my 65kt prediction.

Stay safe everyone
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#773 Postby Craters » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks like east side of Matagorda Bay for landfall, btw. Radar is indicating the MLC. LLC is a bit SSW-SW of that.

Oh, and I'm cancelling winter for SE TX this year. Too much cold last year.

Thanks, Wxman. I really didn't want to wait in that long line for a backup generator...
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#774 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:47 pm

kassi wrote:
IcyTundra wrote:Main threat in the Houston metro should be in SE Harris, Galveston County, Brazoria County, and Chambers County the rest of the Houston area should make it out ok.

Is the flood threat reduced for the Golden Triangle as well?


Jefferson County and Golden Triangle can still get hit pretty hard in terms of rain could be 10+ inches in some parts of the Golden Triangle.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#775 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:49 pm

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#776 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:55 pm

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#777 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:57 pm



Could you possibly highlight the center?...
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#778 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:58 pm

That shear is kicking *ss. Look at the rain shield already diminishing from the NW.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#779 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:59 pm

xironman wrote:
aspen wrote:
xironman wrote:
Tomorrow morning in Greenwich.

E. 13/2300Z TO 14/0530Z

That’s so odd. Why weren’t 6-hour fixes scheduled for a system that’ll make landfall soon? Waiting that long will mean valuable data will be missed.


Meaning it will take off at about 6pm today CDT as opposed to tomorrow UTC


Actually take off around 4:30pm central time and being on station beginning around 6pm.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#780 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:01 pm

...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS SO FAR TODAY...

Location Speed Time/Date
Galveston 49 MPH 1123 AM 09/13
Brazos 451 Oilp 48 MPH 0615 AM 09/13
Galveston Bay Entrance, Nort 46 MPH 1142 AM 09/13
Port OConnor, TX 43 MPH 1242 PM 09/13
Pearland 40 MPH 1050 AM 09/13
Houston Univ 39 MPH 1235 PM 09/13
Brazoria County Airport 37 MPH 0742 AM 09/13
Palacios 37 MPH 0735 AM 09/13
Houston Intnl 35 MPH 1256 PM 09/13
Easterwood Field Airport 30 MPH 1114 AM 09/13
Brenham 28 MPH 1055 AM 09/13
Bay City 28 MPH 1055 AM 09/13
Houston Hobby 25 MPH 1220 PM 09/13
Caldwell 25 MPH 1155 AM 09/13
Houston Dw Hooks 24 MPH 0953 AM 09/13
Wharton 24 MPH 1155 AM 09/13
Coulter Fld Ap 23 MPH 1135 AM 09/13
Houston Sugar La 21 MPH 1222 PM 09/13
Houston Southwst 20 MPH 1115 AM 09/13
Eagle Lake 20 MPH 1215 PM 09/13
Columbus 18 MPH 0935 AM 09/13
Houston Exec 16 MPH 0955 AM 09/13
4 SSW Pasadena 16 MPH 0717 AM 09/13
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