ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Oh yeah I think Elsa is trying to get her act together now, we’ll see though. The NHC forecast cone does call for an eventual hurricane now

NHC has it peaking at 50kts

[jdjaguar]

Here she goes…

https://i.postimg.cc/HLN6K6Mn/BA1-C03-F6-D435-48-E7-BE46-B3-CC86596053.gif

shrimping no doubt.

Good or bad thing ?

depends on your point of view.

lets see what the morning brings.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

shrimping no doubt.

Good or bad thing ?

depends on your point of view.

lets see what the morning brings.

I’m in Barbados I would be fascinated to see the storm, but also skeptical about damage

[Weatherwatcher2018]

shrimping no doubt.

Good or bad thing ?

depends on your point of view.

lets see what the morning brings.

I’m in Barbados I would be fascinated to see the storm, but also skeptical about damage

[Category5Kaiju]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/tropical-storm-elsa-could-become-1st-atlantic-hurricane-of-2021/971809/amp

Hmm, I guess it wasn’t official then? I got that idea from here though

[alienstorm]

There is a possibilty that the LLC relocates further NE in the blob.Time will tell agree that recon needs to get out there, but the flights leaves at 10AM EDT

[InfernoFlameCat]

Oh yeah I think Elsa is trying to get her act together now, we’ll see though. The NHC forecast cone does call for an eventual hurricane now

??? The nhc mentioned the GFS was showing a hurricane to compare to the UKMT that showed dissipation in the same area. They never explicitly called for a hurricane to form.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Oh yeah I think Elsa is trying to get her act together now, we’ll see though. The NHC forecast cone does call for an eventual hurricane now

??? The nhc mentioned the GFS was showing a hurricane to compare to the UKMT that showed dissipation in the same area. They never explicitly called for a hurricane to form.

[chaser1]

I disagree with the NHC's best track position at 5 PM DST, clearly on visible the LLC is further SE.

Agreed. The LLC has seemingly been rotating around from west of the MLC, and now appears a bit closer but south of the MLC. I am wondering if what we see as a slightly erroneous center fix is actually the point where NHC is tracking as more of a "mean track" COC?

[Kazmit]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/tropical-storm-elsa-could-become-1st-atlantic-hurricane-of-2021/971809/amp

Hmm, I guess it wasn’t official then? I got that idea from here though

Watch out for clickbait. Although it's not wrong-- there's still a fair chance it becomes a hurricane at some point.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok so I made a mistake and I'll just rely on official forecasts; I think I fell for the clickbait trap this one time

[cycloneye]

There is a possibilty that the LLC relocates further NE in the blob.Time will tell agree that recon needs to get out there, but the flights leaves at 10AM EDT

First mission will depart at 3:15 AM EDT.

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 02/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 02/0715Z
D. 12.7N 58.9W
E. 02/1130Z TO 02/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FEET

[Sanibel]

Under the gun here on models...Anomalous season-wise...

[Hammy]

Ok so I made a mistake and I'll just rely on official forecasts; I think I fell for the clickbait trap this one time

NHC did note though that their intensity forecast is on the lower end of the guidance.

[Stormybajan]

There is a possibilty that the LLC relocates further NE in the blob.Time will tell agree that recon needs to get out there, but the flights leaves at 10AM EDT

First mission will depart at 3:15 AM EDT.

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 02/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 02/0715Z
D. 12.7N 58.9W
E. 02/1130Z TO 02/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FEET

This is GREAT to see as any later we in Barbados would have already been in the storm by the time they sent recon..looks like Elsa finding better conditions, DMAX tonight should also help with convective bursts but to maintain them is the real challenge

[ElectricStorm]

My *early* personal forecast for Elsa:
-70kt Cat 1 hurricane peak in Caribbean before landfall in Cuba
-Weakens to 50kts before emerging back over water
-80kt Cat 1 hurricane peak before landfall on FL west coast

Too early for specifics but that's the general idea I'm seeing with this system.

[eastcoastFL]

This is a pretty cool tool where you can set the models as an overlay. Also looks like Elsa is mixing out some of that dry air now that was giving her issues on the western side

[eastcoastFL]

Good IR breakdown

[DestinHurricane]

Convection beginning to wrap upshear, looking much better than earlier.

[SFLcane]

Like I said here she comes!