ATL: ELSA - Models

[skillz305]

HWRF

[eastcoastFL]

Elsa finally gets to Disney Wednesday morning

[Ivanhater]

Elsa finally gets to Disney Wednesday morning

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070318/hwrf_ref_05L_26.png

That's Tuesday night at 8pm est and like other models is faster bringing this in.

If the HWRF actually verified and got down to 970 today, I might actually believe it

[eastcoastFL]

Elsa finally gets to Disney Wednesday morning

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070318/hwrf_ref_05L_26.png

That's Tuesday night at 8pm est and like other models is faster bringing this in.

If the HWRF actually verified and got down to 970 today, I might actually believe it

Honestly I don't trust any models for intensity. I'm looking purely at the track which the HWRF has been on point with from the start with Elsa. Intensity seems to be a mystery for models and even the NHC so I look for track and make sure I'm prepared for the worst if it comes my way.

[NDG]

Elsa finally gets to Disney Wednesday morning

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070318/hwrf_ref_05L_26.png

That's Tuesday night at 8pm est and like other models is faster bringing this in.

If the HWRF actually verified and got down to 970 today, I might actually believe it

I figured out why the HWRF was so wrong for today from yesterday's runs, it was forecasting it to slow down today and not create its own shear, when in actuallity it kept moving at 30-32 mph through the night and this morning.

[skyline385]

Elsa finally gets to Disney Wednesday morning

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070318/hwrf_ref_05L_26.png

That's Tuesday night at 8pm est and like other models is faster bringing this in.

If the HWRF actually verified and got down to 970 today, I might actually believe it

I figured out why the HWRF was so wrong for today from yesterday's runs, it was forecasting it to slow down today and not create its own shear, when in actuallity it kept moving at 30-32 mph through the night and this morning.

Yea I was comparing HWRF runs from earlier and it was predicted to be way below the DR at 07/03 0Z and not so close to Haiti..

[SFLcane]

Can someone post the 18z euro looks like it’s stronger.

[ColdMiser123]

Many moderate to strong solutions among the 18z EPS members, baroclinic interaction could be another wildcard like it was for Isaias.

[skyline385]

Many moderate to strong solutions among the 18z EPS members, baroclinic interaction could be another wildcard like it was for Isaias.

Can you post the ensemble here?

[Ubuntwo]

Can someone post the 18z euro looks like it’s stronger.

Operational has a moderate TS striking the Carolinas (moves over SEFL as a TD)


Quite strong ensemble support with a few majors.

[OuterBanker]

18z GFS kills it. I can relax now.

[eastcoastFL]

Elsa finally gets to Disney Wednesday morning

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070318/hwrf_ref_05L_26.png

That's Tuesday night at 8pm est and like other models is faster bringing this in.

If the HWRF actually verified and got down to 970 today, I might actually believe it

I figured out why the HWRF was so wrong for today from yesterday's runs, it was forecasting it to slow down today and not create its own shear, when in actuallity it kept moving at 30-32 mph through the night and this morning.

See that makes sense. There always has to be some kind of reason. Thank you for pointing that out. I was thinking that it has her going so wild because it kept her away from land in warm water with favorable conditions which normallly means all systems are go. But she was just going so damn fast. Most storms would decouple at that speed so it’s still impressive that she’s chugged along all this way keeping her self somewhat intact the whole way. Pretty resilient little storm. Laura was resilient too but not with the speed. She just kept improving over land that usually wrecks storms. It’s interesting to watch storms defeat the odds that we usually see defeat them.

[OuterBanker]

First the Euro kills it while the gfs has a US landfalling storm. Now the gfs kills it and the European has a landfalling storm. It's like a couple that can never agree on anything. They should file for divorce.

[tolakram]

Decent init on the 0Z GFS

[toad strangler]

Decent init on the 0Z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/5hoUM7d.png

Look how tiny that vort is. #fragile

[toad strangler]

0z GFS takes that little marble of a vort and drags it over much of Cuba at a death blow NW angle.

[captainbarbossa19]

Elsa finally gets to Disney Wednesday morning

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070318/hwrf_ref_05L_26.png

That would be hilarious if Elsa came in as a weak tropical storm or depression to hit Disney World and somehow managed to not cause any damage from now until then.

[toad strangler]

0Z GFS POOFS Elsa

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z HWRF looks like it's catching the ongoing LLC relocation. Clips Jamaica and is significantly further south.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF just S of Cuba at 1000mb at hour 36