ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Blinhart]

https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1431047707934830599?s=20

See this is what scares me to death about these early conservative forcasts on strength. To most Louisiana Diehards a Cat 2 is nothing if they call for evacs last minute in New Orleans its going ot be horrible.

Not sure how yall feel about Windy.com but check out this GFS forcast with Wind gusts turned on.

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust? ... ,-90.008,9

Move it to 1pm Sunday then hit play. Look at all that water being pushed into the lakes. Look at the gust first in Grand Isle, then in new orleans... Pause it and zoom in.

That is a scary dang scenerio if it plays out. And that is with it being forcast as a Cat 2

Thanks for that link for Windy.com. I had never visited that page before. I like it.

Same here, I bookmarked it.

[skyline385]

Just needs some convection through the centre, that band is looking good

[grapealcoholic]

Oh boy that upshear wrap near the center

[Stormgodess]

After seeing Harvey, Micheal, and Laura reach Cat 4+ while not spending all that much time over the gulf, I'm thinking we may see something similar here. I don't really see Ida getting to Cat 5, although I can't really throw out any possibilities at this point. I can definitely see a solid Cat 4 out of this though. Just a nasty and horrible situation overall. Hopefully Cuba somehow disrupts the core more than expected but I just don't see that happening.

What worries me is where her rapid intensification might happen along with the speed she is expeced to move.

Im speaking it total novice terms, but you know how some strong storms once they get to that Cat 4 Cat 5 level after a while will just peter out seemingly for no reason? And so they arent so strong at landfall?

I worry she will only have enough time to become a Monster and hit full force with it

[psyclone]

Seems like Ida is moving NNW, like it’s gonna go into Florida instead.

All of the convection is on the E side. Don't let your eyes play tricks on you. Focus on where the NHC has the center and you can see overall motion.

Lopsided convective asymmetry can favor a bit more rightward adjustments to the track. An eventual southeast LA and MS target would not surprise me. A tick to the right is probably more likely than the left.

[GCANE]

Update: GFS Forecast, IDA in Mid GoM.
The main steering being the ULH over the Carolinas is pushing east and weakening somewhat.
Opening the possibility of a curve east.
Ida still under a ARWB over the Loop Current.
RW hasn't changed much but my hunch is it will dip further south in upcoming model runs.
This is based on the fact the Midwest is cooling faster that what the models have been predicting.

A concerning fact I heard on the news tonight that FL hospitals are setting up tents for overflow Covid patients.
They didn't say exactly where though.

Also, I want to mention the Loop Current is not the end-all be-all to rapidly intensify a TC.
Sure, we all remember Katrina.
But I have seen many TCs over the Loop Current and do nothing.
There are a lot of other factors that come into play that intensify or keep a lid on a TC.

[toad strangler]

Seems like Ida is moving NNW, like it’s gonna go into Florida instead.

All of the convection is on the E side. Don't let your eyes play tricks on you. Focus on where the NHC has the center and you can see overall motion.

Lopsided convective asymmetry can favor a bit more rightward adjustments to the track. An eventual southeast LA and MS target would not surprise me. A tick to the right is probably more likely than the left.

Agree, my thought was in response to aspen seeing a motion towards Florida and I'm assuming he meant the western pan handle.

[WiscoWx02]

aspen literally asked what I was just about to Looks like its heading into Cuba then Florida instead lol. Figure the ridge to the north is going to strengthen and push it more westward with time. Think this is going to be more of a Mississippi/Alabama problem at this point if this keeps up.

[Blinhart]

Seems like Ida is moving NNW, like it’s gonna go into Florida instead.

Pretty sure you meant to say NE or NNE, no way NNW from that point would go into Florida. However I do think it is either moving W or NW (as the NHC says).

[La Breeze]

https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1431047707934830599?s=20

See this is what scares me to death about these early conservative forcasts on strength. To most Louisiana Diehards a Cat 2 is nothing if they call for evacs last minute in New Orleans its going ot be horrible.

Not sure how yall feel about Windy.com but check out this GFS forcast with Wind gusts turned on.

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust? ... ,-90.008,9

Move it to 1pm Sunday then hit play. Look at all that water being pushed into the lakes. Look at the gust first in Grand Isle, then in new orleans... Pause it and zoom in.

That is a scary dang scenerio if it plays out. And that is with it being forcast as a Cat 2

Thanks for that link for Windy.com. I had never visited that page before. I like it.

Agreed - I like windy.com as well. Thanks for posting it.

[Teban54]

As we watch Ida in its early stages, I think it's a good time to remind everyone that while Ida might be facing less than ideal conditions such as dry air and some slight shear, they are well expected and NOT indicative of lower potential in the Gulf. Most model runs from a few days ago didn't even show Ida becoming a tropical cyclone before entering the Yucatan Channel, yet they still make it a solid major at the Gulf landfall. Ida is already ahead of schedule by forming just west of Jamaica.

That being said, the stronger Ida is when crossing Cuba (assuming a landfall there), the higher its ceiling is in the Gulf. If Ida manages to enter the Gulf as a hurricane, then a scenario similar to Camille, Carla, Rita or Michael - all of which entered the Gulf as hurricanes - might become plausible. At this moment this is a low possibility scenario and I won't bet my money on it, but if it happens, watch out. (Not saying a "normal" C3/4 isn't bad, of course)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[toad strangler]

Seems like Ida is moving NNW, like it’s gonna go into Florida instead.

Pretty sure you meant to say NE or NNE, no way NNW from that point would go into Florida. However I do think it is either moving W or NW (as the NHC says).

NNW would go possibly into the pan handle. Which is what I think aspen was seeing. But, all you need to do is focus on where the NHC has the center and see that overall direction is as how the NHC has it.

[GCANE]

Algo output from tonight's recon run

[grapealcoholic]

 https://twitter.com/anthonymweather/status/1431068211823452165

[FLpanhandle91]

Towers firing near the LLC as we speak. This is the first time I've seen them firing upshear and near the LLC.

[grapealcoholic]

Towers firing near the LLC as we speak. This is the first time I've seen them firing upshear and near the LLC.

Feedback loop has started

[ElectricStorm]

As we watch Ida in its early stages, I think it's a good time to remind everyone that while Ida might be facing less than ideal conditions such as dry air and some slight shear, they are well expected and NOT indicative of lower potential in the Gulf. Most model runs from a few days ago didn't even show Ida becoming a tropical cyclone before entering the Yucatan Channel, yet they still make it a solid major at the Gulf landfall. Ida is already ahead of schedule by forming just west of Jamaica.

That being said, the stronger Ida is when crossing Cuba (assuming a landfall there), the higher its ceiling is in the Gulf. If Ida manages to enter the Gulf as a hurricane, then a scenario similar to Camille, Carla, Rita or Michael - all of which entered the Gulf as hurricanes - might become plausible. At this moment this is a low possibility scenario and I won't bet my money on it, but if it happens, watch out. (Not saying a "normal" C3/4 isn't bad, of course)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Not to mention it's already ahead of schedule. It wasn't even supposed to develop until tomorrow

[kknoth03]

Update: GFS Forecast, IDA in Mid GoM.
The main steering being the ULH over the Carolinas is pushing east and weakening somewhat.
Opening the possibility of a curve east.
Ida still under a ARWB over the Loop Current.
RW hasn't changed much but my hunch is it will dip further south in upcoming model runs.
This is based on the fact the Midwest is cooling faster that what the models have been predicting.

A concerning fact I heard on the news tonight that FL hospitals are setting up tents for overflow Covid patients.
They didn't say exactly where though.

Also, I want to mention the Loop Current is not the end-all be-all to rapidly intensify a TC.
Sure, we all remember Katrina.
But I have seen many TCs over the Loop Current and do nothing.
There are a lot of other factors that come into play that intensify or keep a lid on a TC.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/gJGzW1zD/99L1.png [/url]

I work at a hospital in Pensacola, FL and yes, we are overwhelmed right now setting up separate areas to treat these patients.

[Sciencerocks]

I don't expect very much strengthening over the next 24 hours.

[mpic]

Not too busy of a thread here considering that a "potential" major hurricane is heading for the gulf states....I guess gone are the days of 1,000 page threads LOL(the 2005 period)....I expect this board to get at least a little busier though over the weekend regardless, since many people will be home from work....

Because we already have a seemingly solid consensus of where it will go?