ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SconnieCane]

I've seen Dennis and Emily mentioned recently with these early vigorous waves traversing the basin at a low latitude, but the storm I've been thinking of is the 1933 Trinidad hurricane. It was a late June - early July storm that moved at a low latitude, one of only 3 cyclones to produce hurricane force winds in Venezuela, and moved into the Caribbean and then the Gulf. Peaked at 95kts/965mb in the official record (although it's 1933 data, so the margin of error is greater.)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Trinidad_hurricane

Early season storms/hurricanes are rare in the MDR, especially traveling into the Caribbean, but it's happened.

Interesting that you mention that storm, because we broke record highs today up here in New England set in 1933.

So.....

Also worth noting that it came in 1933, the previous seasonal activity record holder before 2005. We can debate to what extent July activity portends that of ASO, but if we do get a Cat 2+ Caribbean cruiser out of this...

[InfernoFlameCat]

The second MDR invest this June, and this one looks way more likely to develop. Just wait until two months from now...

A front-loaded season isn't a harbinger for the remaining part of the season. That's the beauty of the weather, it's ever-changing. I don't like these early season threats, but we have seen seasons with several threats early that ended up being normal hurricane seasons.

However when concerning Cabo Verde systems it bears an ominous sight of what’s to become. This early for strong waves to be moving in favorable environments is highly unusual.

[MGC]

97L starting to get that tumbleweed look. If convection persists could very well be upgraded in a day or two.....MGC

[crownweather]

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1410033783475159041

[InfernoFlameCat]

If this system manages to squeeze past every bit of land in its way whilst having favorable conditions as forecast, I recon it could make it to cat 3. My odds of that are 0.1 percent on that though.

[MarioProtVI]

This is getting its act together fast.

[tropicwatch]

ASCAT caught 97L about two hours ago and I think they could already classify this as a depression.

[Senobia]

I asked one of our local meteorologists if it was possible for 97 and 95 to either slow down or speed up so one catches up with the other and they combine energies. His response was not likely, but that 95 is helping 97 develop by dealing with/absorbing some of the dry air ahead.

[eastcoastFL]

[Blown Away]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

97L looking healthy and appears to be gaining a little more latitude this evening. My guard is up buying into an MDR system in June, but ATM it appears to be a go.

[eastcoastFL]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=97L&product=ir

97L looking healthy and appears to be gaining a little more latitude this evening. My guard is up buying into an MDR system in June, but ATM it appears to be a go.

I feel the same way this time of year but I’d more surprised now if this one doesn’t form. I just hope it stays clear of south Florida while the search and rescue efforts continue.

[Stormybajan]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/taw/Sandwich/20211810250_GOES16-ABI-taw-Sandwich-900x540.jpg


https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/taw/NightMicrophysics/20211810250_GOES16-ABI-taw-NightMicrophysics-900x540.jpg

Sure does look like it taking up a lot of space..maybe being so broad can slow down development a bit? I cant remember the last time we've had a strong early season MDR system...I guess that would have been Hurricane Beryl in 2018? I've been a lurker on here for about nearly 4 years, when storm2k is at a stir for a system thats not even developed as yet..you have to watch it closely. (Especially if youre in its pathway )

[Blown Away]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=97L&product=ir

97L looking healthy and appears to be gaining a little more latitude this evening. My guard is up buying into an MDR system in June, but ATM it appears to be a go.

I feel the same way this time of year but I’d more surprised now if this one doesn’t form. I just hope it stays clear of south Florida while the search and rescue efforts continue.

Next few model runs will likely decide either a general WNW path into Caribbean below the big islands and likely stay S of the FL peninsula into CA or GOM or a path near or into Big islands and near FL peninsula or E...

[eastcoastFL]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=97L&product=ir

97L looking healthy and appears to be gaining a little more latitude this evening. My guard is up buying into an MDR system in June, but ATM it appears to be a go.

I feel the same way this time of year but I’d more surprised now if this one doesn’t form. I just hope it stays clear of south Florida while the search and rescue efforts continue.

Next few model runs will likely decide either a general WNW path into Caribbean below the big islands and likely stay S of the FL peninsula into CA or GOM or a path near or into Big islands and near FL peninsula or E...

I saw one yesterday bringing it into the gom heading towards LA and the one I saw today was heading for the Panhandle. Hopefully that trend continues and it misses us and everyone else to the East. Really odd to even be considering an MDR threat in June.

[Category5Kaiju]

I sincerely cannot believe that we are talking about an MDR-born threat in June, let alone beating last year's earliest 5th named storm record. I hope future Elsa is not going to be a sign of things to come, especially if and when that predicted very intense velocity signature in early August comes into the picture.

[chaser1]

This is not simply your early season El Nino spat of northern latitude sub-tropical gales. Those early seasons rarely represented any true indication of a busy August or September. 97L looks like the sprawling overstuffed pig disturbances that we commonly see roll up during the height of so many Pacific seasons. Aside from it being June, and aside from the large envelope system that 97L appears to have... I find it interesting how this systems apparent lifespan is far more apt to be determined by potential land interaction then it is anticipated to be by adverse upper level wind shear. 97L seems destined to be a legit threat to the greater Antilles - even if that threat be imited to being a minimal hurricane. The real threat is yet to come. Don't believe this storm will be a harbinger of things to come later in the season?? Think again.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is not simply your early season El Nino spat of northern latitude sub-tropical gales. Those early seasons rarely represented any true indication of a busy August or September. 97L looks like the sprawling overstuffed pig disturbances that we commonly see roll up during the height of so many Pacific seasons. Aside from it being June, and aside from the large envelope system that 97L appears to have... I find it interesting how this systems apparent lifespan is far more apt to be determined by potential land interaction then it is anticipated to be by adverse upper level wind shear. 97L seems destined to be a legit threat to the greater Antilles - even if that threat be imited to being a minimal hurricane. The real threat is yet to come. Don't believe this storm will be a harbinger of things to come later in the season?? Think again.

Well said. Below average to near average seasons usually don't have waves like 96L and 97L in June. It is obvious that this is foreshadowing another active or potentially hyperactive season that will feature a more favorable MDR than 2020 did.

[Sciencerocks]

[Category5Kaiju]

Well I also think based on what we have been seeing so far that any potential comments regarding a future "2013 2.0" for this season are thrown out the window. Did 2013 have this kind of robust MDR activity so early in the season?

[weeniepatrol]

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development,
and a tropical depression is likely form during the next few days
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.