EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

As good as Felicia looks for a system that’s not even 18 hours old, it won’t be intensifying quickly anymore if that backshear persists and continues to prevent a core from developing.

[Kingarabian]

As good as Felicia looks for a system that’s not even 18 hours old, it won’t be intensifying quickly anymore if that backshear persists and continues to prevent a core from developing.

Core might have developed near 14.7/114.8 on this GMI pass that is valid an hour after the last disco.

[Yellow Evan]

12z HMON too bullish for how north this moves it.

[Kingarabian]

12z HWRF is the most bullish model from the 12z suite so far.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 141800
TCSENP
CCA

A. 06E (FELICIA)

B. 14/1730Z

C. 14.6N

D. 114.4W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED TO ADD STORM NAME. 4/10 W BANDING FOR A
DT=3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON MET SINCE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE LLCC WAS NOT CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

Finally some bad Dvoraking.

[cycloneye]

Euro moves it too far north and that is why is not strong.

[Yellow Evan]

That's actually stronger than any ECMWF run so far.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: That's actually stronger than any ECMWF run so far.

I was going to put that on EPAC thread for the 10/70.

[cycloneye]

Up to 55kts.

EP, 06, 2021071418, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1148W, 55, 998, TS

[aspen]

Up to 55kts.

EP, 06, 2021071418, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1148W, 55, 998, TS

That’s a 25 kt increase in its first 18 hours of existence. Even if Felicia magically fails to become a hurricane, it has already become an over-achiever, since most models barely had any development at all.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FELICIA EP062021 07/14/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 70 74 79 82 80 77 73 72 68 64 61 60 57 54
V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 70 74 79 82 80 77 73 72 68 64 61 60 57 54
V (KT) LGEM 55 63 69 74 78 81 81 79 75 69 64 61 57 53 49 43 37
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 4 3 4 7 7 1 5 8 12 13 10 5 8 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 0 -5 -3 -4 1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 1 2
SHEAR DIR 53 61 38 41 48 61 97 145 330 117 134 138 138 161 230 226 253
SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.7 26.6 26.1 26.3 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.0 26.2 26.4
POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 147 143 139 136 130 129 124 126 133 133 134 130 123 125 127
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 66 68 67 68 67 64 58 52 49 49 48 45 45 48 49 47 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 12 13 13 14 14 15 14 14 14 13 12 13 12 11
850 MB ENV VOR -24 -25 -32 -33 -33 -16 -17 0 3 7 0 -6 0 0 -1 -2 7
200 MB DIV 40 45 18 24 40 9 -32 -40 -13 8 -13 -34 -68 -59 -40 -23 9
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -2 0 1 1 -1 -6 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -2 0
LAND (KM) 1051 1079 1120 1172 1227 1328 1450 1583 1709 1857 2008 2182 2351 2158 2008 1840 1658
LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.5 15.2 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.9 117.0 117.9 118.8 120.3 121.7 123.3 124.9 126.7 128.7 130.9 133.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 9 9 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 31 23 11 7 6 4 2 2 0 0 8 6 4 1 0 0 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1.
PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 3. 2. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 19. 24. 27. 25. 22. 18. 17. 13. 9. 6. 5. 2. -1.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.6 114.8

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/14/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 6.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 9.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 4.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 9.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 8.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 4.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -6.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.82 1.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 26.7% 44.2% 41.6% 33.7% 22.4% 32.6% 16.2% 9.9%
Logistic: 14.9% 29.0% 23.7% 16.3% 7.4% 9.6% 3.9% 2.2%
Bayesian: 14.2% 5.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Consensus: 18.6% 26.3% 22.0% 16.7% 9.9% 14.2% 6.8% 4.0%
DTOPS: 21.0% 42.0% 31.0% 17.0% 11.0% 32.0% 8.0% 1.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/14/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

More bullish in this run. RI25 and RI30 up.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2021 Time : 192032 UTC
Lat : 14:35:59 N Lon : 115:00:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.5mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.1 3.8

Center Temp : -67.4C Cloud Region Temp : -62.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Very early for this and this is mere speculation, but for Hawaii implications, the stronger it gets the higher chance it survives in the CPAC. It's possible what's left of it may track close to Hawaii because of possible interaction with future 97E/Guillermo.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

CDO expanding.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro run:



12z HWRF-P:


The Euro continues to have much less shear than the GFS.

[cycloneye]

Forecast to become a cat 2.

Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021

Visible satellite imagery continues to show an increase in
organization and convective banding in association with Felicia.
The central dense overcast has also expanded and become more
symmetric since this morning. A 1630 UTC GMI microwave overpass
revealed a formative mid-level eye but some dry air was noted
around the northwestern portion of the circulation. Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 (55 kt) and T3.0 (45
kt), but given the continued increase in organization the initial
intensity is set at 55 kt, the high end of the satellite estimates.

Continued strengthening is expected while Felicia remains over warm
SSTs and within an area of vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt.
The intensity guidance is still not overly bullish on strengthening,
perhaps due to nearby dry mid-level air that could cause some
pauses in the deepening process of the small tropical cyclone. The
NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance through
24-36 h, and could be conservative if dry air does not disrupt the
inner core. After 48 hours, slightly lower SSTs and a more stable
air mass just to the north of the storm is likely to cause gradual
weakening, but Felicia is forecast to remain a hurricane through
much of the forecast period.

Felicia is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should
continue to steer Felicia west-northwestward to westward through
early Thursday. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly and
become oriented northeast to southwest, which is expected to cause
Felicia to turn west-southwestward in 36-48 hours and a
west-southwestward to westward motion should then continue through
the rest of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in
fairly good agreement, resulting in higher than normal confidence
in the official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 14.8N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 15.3N 117.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 15.5N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.5N 120.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 15.2N 121.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 15.0N 123.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 14.9N 125.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 14.9N 128.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 14.8N 133.2W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[InfernoFlameCat]

She looks absolutely amazing. that banding is beautiful. IMB4 she reaches major.

[Kingarabian]

Old school AVN:

[aspen]

Seems like banding is trying to expand on the downshear side of the storm.