ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

a little closer and slower for anyone not seeing it.

https://i.ibb.co/G9FHjhB/LABELS-19700101-000000-131.gif

https://i.ibb.co/KLtyDYv/Capture.png

looks like it could be, but not sure its not a swirl in a little bit broader circulation.

When not so zoomed in you can see the larger wind field. it is what it is.

slight piece of the itcz to the SW not really attached to the llc much anymore. another good burst of convection and it should be off to the races.

[Sciencerocks]

[AtlanticWind]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7012/mdLCNV.gif

Lightning firing on that southern feeder band

[aspen]

The 12z CMC has 94L track along the northern coasts of the Greater Antilles, emerging into the Florida Straits on the morning of August 14th and not making landfall again until nearly 72 hours later. A track like this would put parts of the Gulf at risk for a storm with the potential to go bonkers, assuming a favorable atmospheric setup; the GFS and Euro have showed the TUTT backing off into the eastern Gulf so the environment might not be favorable. Of course, this is just one run in the long range and things will likely change a lot, but it is one possible scenario we’ll need to look out for — assuming this even develops.

[floridasun78]

i hear that their alot dry air and shear will go up next few days that what my weather man say about 94l

[captainbarbossa19]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7012/mdLCNV.gif

Lightning firing on that southern feeder band

Looks like a slowly organizing TC to me.

[Aric Dunn]

towers firing off right on the NE part of the center.

[ElectricStorm]

Hopefully this ends up getting shredded by the islands but several of these "wait and see" storms have found a way to get through there in recent years...

[Jr0d]

It amazes me how many storms impact the island of Hispaniola. The mountains of that island have saved Florida from a potential major storm countless times.

[cycloneye]

towers firing off right on the NE part of the center.

New ASCAT tonight?

[Aric Dunn]

last few visible images. the llc is just on the edge of these towers that are firing off. let the excitement begin.

Should be in radar range in the next several hours. so tracking the center wont be too bad overnight.

[Aric Dunn]

towers firing off right on the NE part of the center.

New ASCAT tonight?

nothing for a few more hours.

[SFLcane]

Convection weakening this afternoon models are not doing anything significant with it for now. Some blustery showers for the islands.

Shear is not a problem right now but stability and dry air is.

[toad strangler]

One says let the excitement begin and the next nothing much to see here. Ahhhh yes S2K just about in mid season form!

[AtlanticWind]

If this stays weak like the models show I expect it will stay near their track or a little south of it.
if it out performs the models I expect it to ride a little north of the models .
Have seen this a lot with storms coming into the islands .

Again , a non expert opinion .

[AtlanticWind]

last few visible images. the llc is just on the edge of these towers that are firing off. let the excitement begin.

Should be in radar range in the next several hours. so tracking the center wont be too bad overnight.

https://i.ibb.co/VV51GLz/Capture.png

Looks like the LLC is northest of that to me on that sat pic

[SFLcane]

One says let the excitement begin and the next nothing much to see here. Ahhhh yes S2K just about in mid season form!

There’s something to watch no doubt its out there and will track in our general direction but there are plenty of obstacles such as the ones I mentioned. For now not to much to be overly concerned about. We keep watching

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1424482426261319684

[Nimbus]

last few visible images. the llc is just on the edge of these towers that are firing off. let the excitement begin.

Should be in radar range in the next several hours. so tracking the center wont be too bad overnight.

https://i.ibb.co/VV51GLz/Capture.png

Saw part of the low level cloud structure near there but there also was some serious low level inflow streaming in from the south that made the circulation look elongated. If this isn't a sharp wave on the ASCAT and convection blossoms over a closed center Barbados needs to know.

[Blown Away]

Convection weakening this afternoon models are not doing anything significant with it for now. Some blustery showers for the islands.

Shear is not a problem right now but stability and dry air is.

2pm From Yesterday... Developing system is hard to predict sometimes...

[Aric Dunn]

last few visible images. the llc is just on the edge of these towers that are firing off. let the excitement begin.

Should be in radar range in the next several hours. so tracking the center wont be too bad overnight.

https://i.ibb.co/VV51GLz/Capture.png

Saw part of the low level cloud structure near there but there also was some serious low level inflow streaming in from the south that made the circulation look elongated. If this isn't a sharp wave on the ASCAT and convection blossoms over a closed center Barbados needs to know.

the circ was very clear the last few hours.

but yeah any large burst could pull or reform the center at this stage.

the current burst has some good inflow cloud lines.