ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1427585735008342022




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1427587625242841107




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1427591701208735746




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1427594245104414720

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Some interesting analysis from both Papin and Hazelton this morning, mainly in response to both the short-term intensification of the system and the gradual adjustment and recognition of said storm from models, and their adjusted outputs.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1427614096162058245




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1427599123520409600

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Cat5James]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/LD74Jz1.gif

Good looking storm.

[aspen]

Will there be any recon flights into Henri now that Fred is out of the picture? It is still close to land despite not being forecast to make a direct impact.

[ScottNAtlanta]

With the current rate of organization with the shear decreasing, I wouldn't be surprised to see a small eye in the next couple of hours. These small systems can ramp up very fast when they are in the right conditions.

[tiger_deF]

I would wager the same intensity of the high that is pushing Grace more to the West than expected is responsible for Henri's somewhat unexpected intensification. Henri has vigorous outflow and ventilation to the North, aided by the cyclonic flow of the high pressure, and I think there is an outside chance of a Cat 1/2 hurricane developing. Really depends on how far W he can get.

[aspen]

Could be up to 55 kt for 11am.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 2108171200

[Category5Kaiju]

Very interesting to be tracking a TC that seems like it has a remote but nevertheless a chance of impacting New England. New England has had many close calls in the recent past, but a direct strike from a hurricane or strong TC? The last time this happened was 1991. I am monitoring this storm closely, especially with the models trending more west with a stronger Henri.

[BensonTCwatcher]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

Looking at MIMIC, Grace and Fred may actually start to feed moisture and mitigate the dry air currently around Henri. As other have also noted, more development will track Henri into less shear ( the upper steering levels are more from the East vs. the North) Not a typical setup. As Grace deepens she may actually help some banding form. The next few HWRF and GFS runs will be interesting to see.

[aspen]

The NHC is expecting shear to subside for the next 24 hours, which will be Henri’s best chance to intensify. It already has a decent structure despite the shear. Perhaps we could see a hurricane in the next day.

[EquusStorm]

ASCAT pass shows the center is actually further under the deep convection than probably thought. These tiny storms can do interesting things; probably going to either quickly become a hurricane or collapse completely

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

Seems like shear is only becoming more of a problem for Henri. It is producing new hot towers, but it has an even more sheared look than earlier, despite the NHC saying shear will lessen. That could still happen but much later in the day.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Seems like shear is only becoming more of a problem for Henri. It is producing new hot towers, but it has an even more sheared look than earlier, despite the NHC saying shear will lessen. That could still happen but much later in the day.

I think that is some dry air that got sucked in. It is already mixing it out looking at the latest loop

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/LebelLuke/status/1427671825568440322

[aspen]

Based on visible imagery, Henri's center seems to be further east than where the NHC put it. Or maybe I think it's further east, and my center estimate would be closer to the MLC.

[cheezyWXguy]

Based on visible imagery, Henri's center seems to be further east than where the NHC put it. Or maybe I think it's further east, and my center estimate would be closer to the MLC.
https://i.imgur.com/tbbKmlx.png

I agree with your assessment. I think the circulation is a bit elongated w-e, and I would guess it’s a bit tilted. I think what sells your center location is where the low level clouds are feeding in on the south side

[MarioProtVI]

50 kt is conservative based on what I’m seeing here:

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1427712889171873807

[aspen]

50 kt is conservative based on what I’m seeing here:

https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1427712889171873807?s=21

Darn I wish we had recon for this. It’s close to land and a bit difficult for satellite estimates.