ATL: HENRI - Models

[Woofde]

HWRF wants a high end CAT 3 200 miles E of Cape Hatteras

Just HWRF stuff.

[Kohlecane]

HMON keeps similar track and a US landfall. Big takeaways I noticed was, it gained a lot of forward speed after 48 hours and also strangely keeps driving NE towards Upstate NY after landfall. Although it does weaken it to a minimal TS before landfall.
EDIT: seems to stall it a bit near upper PA and NY border

[weeniepatrol]

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/WxRiskGrains/status/1428056924394774532

[Shell Mound]

Well, the 12Z ECMWF now officially shows the trough assuming a negative tilt and “capturing” Henri by 72h, in line with the GFS. Here we go...

[Kohlecane]

I feel like the Euro is playing catch-up with this system, I don't like this run based off the int.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z Euro initialization for Henri remains absolutely terrible.

[Zonacane]

Hell yes Euro, Henri is an open wave.

[Kohlecane]

12z Euro initialization for Henri remains absolutely terrible.

https://i.imgur.com/FuISs4L.png

Agreed!! man recon would have been great

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z Euro initialization for Henri remains absolutely terrible.

https://i.imgur.com/FuISs4L.png

Agreed!! man recon would have been great

Recon would not help a model that has consistently done so poorly at resolving tropical cyclones.

Shame, used to be such a great model.

[Kohlecane]

12z Euro initialization for Henri remains absolutely terrible.

https://i.imgur.com/FuISs4L.png

Agreed!! man recon would have been great

Recon would not help a model that has consistently done so poorly at resolving tropical cyclones.

Shame, used to be such a great model.

Very true! It did great back in the day! It's funny because I remember the CMC would be the extreme outlier always blowing up phantom storms into cat 5's, I mean maybe it still does but definitely remember back around like 2015 it would go crazy. So far the best int for the 12z have been GFS/HMON and Hwrf IMO

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Agreed!! man recon would have been great

Recon would not help a model that has consistently done so poorly at resolving tropical cyclones.

Shame, used to be such a great model.

Very true! It did great back in the day! It's funny because I remember the CMC would be the extreme outlier always blowing up phantom storms into cat 5's, I mean maybe it still does but definitely remember back around like 2015 it would go crazy. So far the best int for the 12z have been GFS/HMON and Hwrf IMO

All of them suck to some degree, but the Euro seems to particularly suck as of late. GFS on the surface has been the most "accurate".

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1428025581782802432

[IcyTundra]

Euro isn't what is used to be when comes to tropical cyclones. GFS isn't great but I trust it a lot more than the Euro when it comes to tropical cyclones

[aspen]

HWRF wants a high end CAT 3 200 miles E of Cape Hatteras

Just HWRF stuff.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210818/23861d0f030289c53fadf39af00995cd.jpg

Essentially Bob 2.0 — a Cat 3 in the higher latitudes off the US East Coast before a Cat 1/2 landfall in Long Island.

[Zonacane]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1428087903280762881

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The new GFS run continues to show a hurricane heading towards Long Island. Looks like a ridge is preventing it from heading OTS.

Along with an upper-level low that hooks Henri back westward. If this scenario verifies it'll be a one in a million badly timed shoot for the Eastern Seaboard ala Superstorm Sandy 2012, very rare.

[Iceresistance]

HWRF-P is even worse!

[TheDreamTraveler]

The new GFS run continues to show a hurricane heading towards Long Island. Looks like a ridge is preventing it from heading OTS.

Along with an upper-level low that hooks Henri back westward. If this scenario verifies it'll be a one in a million badly timed shoot for the Eastern Seaboard ala Superstorm Sandy 2012, very rare.

This is nothing like Sandy right now. I wish people would stop bringing it up lol it turned into a hybrid and had its own characteristics because of that. New England is no stranger to strong hurricanes. We've just been in a quiet period for 30 years. There have been decades where they were struck by multiple hurricanes in one decade

[IcyTundra]

The new GFS run continues to show a hurricane heading towards Long Island. Looks like a ridge is preventing it from heading OTS.

Along with an upper-level low that hooks Henri back westward. If this scenario verifies it'll be a one in a million badly timed shoot for the Eastern Seaboard ala Superstorm Sandy 2012, very rare.

This is nothing like Sandy right now. I wish people would stop bringing it up lol it turned into a hybrid and had its own characteristics because of that. New England is no stranger to strong hurricanes. We've just been in a quiet period for 30 years. There have been decades where they were struck by multiple hurricanes in one decade

I agree Bob from 1991 would be a better analog if the forecast verifies. Will probably be slightly weaker than Bob imo but Henri formed in the subtropics like Bob did and it is the exact same time of year as Bob.