ATL: IDA - Models

[SoupBone]

Starting to breathe a little better here on the central coast of Texas. But the models just keep going east… the question is when do they start coming back west… that’s the question

It's eerily reminiscent of Laura last year. The models were flip flopping all over. But we still don't even have a damn center, so I'm just taking these runs with caution. I just don't get the hard swings east.

[IcyTundra]

00Z CMC looks to be consolidating further north.

Edit: Goes over the Western tip of Cuba.

[Clearcloudz]

Starting to breathe a little better here on the central coast of Texas. But the models just keep going east… the question is when do they start coming back west… that’s the question

It's eerily reminiscent of Laura last year. The models were flip flopping all over. But we still don't even have a damn center, so I'm just taking these runs with caution. I just don't get the hard swings east.

I wonder what the Euro will do now because it also has been shifting further east. Grace was suppose to go towards Florida and shifted all the way down to mexico.

[ElectricStorm]

GFS stalls it inland. That would be a ton of rain...

[Steve]

Not just Laura but Delta as well.

[PTrackerLA]

Man that was tough to watch, and only 6 days out. I know it's just one model run but it's time to get things in order at home starting tomorrow. Not gonna lie, I paced around the kitchen for a few minutes before getting out the laptop. I was headed for bed .

[SoupBone]

Another thing to note on this run, the GFS stalls it out between Dallas and Shreveport. They would have serious issues up there as it just sits.

[IcyTundra]

Good thing is it's just 1 model run and it is 6 days out. Don't put too much focus on 1 model run 6 days out especially a model run on an Invest area that doesn't even have a closed off center of circulation.

[Clearcloudz]

00Z CMC doesn't want to leave New Orleans out of the action tonight.

[cheezyWXguy]

Starting to breathe a little better here on the central coast of Texas. But the models just keep going east… the question is when do they start coming back west… that’s the question

Wouldn’t be breathing any easier or harder than before. Anything beyond the Yucatán is up in the air. We are trying to determine ridge strength a week away, and it could easily trend back west. It’s probably fair to say that northern Mexico isn’t likely in play anymore though

[Keldeo1997]

CMC is way east

[Steve]

Good thing is it's just 1 model run and it is 6 days out. Don't put too much focus on 1 model run 6 days out especially a model run on an Invest area that doesn't even have a closed off center of circulation.

Obligatory it’s the model thread.

[SoupBone]

I should have listened to wxman and ignored these runs and gone to bed. I can't wrap my mind around the massive shift east in the last several runs.

[ROCK]

Very similar to the 18Z GFS but a bit further west..still thou the storm surge alone would be massive. Any jump north would put it into Freeport with the NW quad over Galveston and up 45. Worst of the worst case scenario.

Wouldn't that match an Ike like track?

Ike was expected to make landfall somewhere between Freeport and San Luis Pass on the west end of Galveston Island, but instead it made landfall on the east end of Galveston Island and went north up Galveston Bay and the East side of Houston. Ike would have been a lot worse than it already was if it made landfall a bit further west.

Correct

[IcyTundra]

I should have listened to wxman and ignored these runs and gone to bed. I can't wrap my mind around the massive shift east in the last several runs.

Same though I do wonder if he will still be getting his day off tomorrow...

[grapealcoholic]

I should have listened to wxman and ignored these runs and gone to bed. I can't wrap my mind around the massive shift east in the last several runs.

Whatever you do, don't look at the gfs ensembles..

[Craters]

I should have listened to wxman and ignored these runs and gone to bed. I can't wrap my mind around the massive shift east in the last several runs.

Where are you, SoupBone? Farther from the coast than Alvin, I hope.

[ElectricStorm]

HMON running. Let's see what it's got. Looks like HWRF is about to run also

[IcyTundra]

Operational GFS looks like it is on the eastern edge of the 00Z GEFS guidance.

[Clearcloudz]

00Z CMC doesn't want to leave New Orleans out of the action tonight.

https://i.imgur.com/TapZIzv.gif