ATL: LARRY - Models

[kevin]

ICON is quite far south at +81. It's at 15.5N, 46W, just outside of the NHC cone, which the NHC already noted was quite south compared to some models. It's more than 2 degrees south compared to 06z GFS at this point (17.8N).

[AutoPenalti]

ICON is quite far south at +81. It's at 15.5N, 46W, just outside of the NHC cone, which the NHC already noted was quite south compared to some models. It's more than 2 degrees south compared to 06z GFS at this point (17.8N).

https://i.imgur.com/C0Pc8R5.png

ICON breaks down the ridge though, albeit slightly slower.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS is moving Larry due west & has trended faster & further south than 6z

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS with a considerable SW shift by 96 hours on the 12z.

[tolakram]

Still a bit NE of the Euro

[AutoPenalti]

[AutoPenalti]

Woah there, huge SW shift on the GFS.

[GeneratorPower]

Man, this sure seems like a surprise waiting to happen.

[Kohlecane]

https://i.imgur.com/7lWauTm.gif

I can expect to see a shift like this over the course of 2/3 days worth of runs but <24hours

[AutoPenalti]

Next trough comes in and picks it up.

[AutoPenalti]

Ida will likely amplify that trough which will pick it up.

[weeniepatrol]

[Kohlecane]

Next trough comes in and picks it up.

Lets hope, cause IMO thats indictive if it slows down to almost a stall between 108-150

[Kohlecane]

FWIW IMO: Not a bad idea to see what the NAM starts showing as far as upper/lower level over the CONUS starting Sat, as far as strength with that trough

[Category5Kaiju]

I still personally want to wait a few more days to know for sure, but if Larry for whatever reason goes on a westward trend, then I think that would sort of underline the idea that this year models have consistently been underestimating ridge strength. We saw this as well with Henri and Grace, where Henri was supposed to be a harmless fish storm and Grace a Northern GoM threat or Hispaniola death. We ended up with a New England hit and a BoC major cyclone landfall respectively. Will Larry surprise us all? I have no idea at this point, and I feel like we should really monitor where the trend goes. Because if the models are actually incorrect and we do not get a complete fish storm, somewhere is going to take a really big beating from this storm.

[pgoss11]

Next trough comes in and picks it up.

Getting closer to Bermuda

[Zonacane]

Look forward to coming into this thread Friday with Larry modeled to be in the Hebert Box

[Blown Away]

12z EURO... W of previous runs, going to miss NE Caribbean to the NE, but getting closer. Likely a recurve towards Bermuda but clearly each run you can see the ridge building in the the W.

[Woofde]

Ridging is going to have to be stout the entire way if this isn't going to go OTS. If it's not then Larry should very easily feel the weakness given how strong of a storm it is forecasted to be. Still important to watch, but tracks similar to Florence and Irma are the exception, not the most likely case.

[chris_fit]

Another substantial W shift on the Euro (and really all other guidance - minus the CMC) - Brushes Bermuda on this run - Well W of the 00Z and 06Z

ETA: Actually landfalls in Canada