EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OLAF EP152021 09/09/21 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 68 69 72 68 63 58 55 51 48 46 48 50 52 54
V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 68 69 72 68 63 58 55 51 48 46 48 50 52 54
V (KT) LGEM 55 61 65 67 69 68 64 56 49 42 36 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 6 7 2 1 3 4 7 4 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 3 3 7 8 7 5 1 3 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 243 258 273 256 261 308 339 49 7 40 125 123 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 27.4 25.8 24.8 25.5 25.7 25.3 25.4 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 152 153 153 137 120 109 117 118 115 117 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 51 49 46 42 38 38 34 31 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 15 13 15 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 48 25 31 36 21 5 1 3 1 8 -5 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 54 32 34 22 18 -8 9 -25 -27 -31 -58 -64 -75 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 3 4 4 1 -4 3 4 11 9 7 5 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 220 279 201 120 59 132 176 280 406 536 662 810 995 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.8 21.4 21.9 22.4 23.1 23.5 23.4 23.2 22.8 22.3 21.9 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.4 108.9 109.6 110.2 111.8 113.3 114.6 115.9 117.1 118.2 119.8 122.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 16 12 13 15 18 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 14. 17. 14. 8. 3. -0. -4. -7. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.2 107.8

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152021 OLAF 09/09/21 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 5.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 3.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 6.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 5.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 -4.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.74 1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.7

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 19.7% 45.8% 33.9% 24.8% 14.9% 22.7% 15.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 13.8% 17.5% 16.4% 8.3% 2.9% 11.8% 2.1% 0.9%
Bayesian: 1.3% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 11.6% 22.1% 16.9% 11.1% 6.0% 11.5% 5.8% 0.3%
DTOPS: 24.0% 33.0% 25.0% 19.0% 12.0% 11.0% 1.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152021 OLAF 09/09/21 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

NHC went with 55kts.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

Olaf's convective canopy has been expanding somewhat and become a
little more circular since last evening with clouds tops as cold as
-80 degrees Celsius. Dvorak estimates have bounced up to T3.5 from
TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT, and Olaf's maximum winds are
therefore now estimated to be 55 kt. Recent scatterometer data also
indicated that the tropical-storm-force wind field is a little
bigger than previously estimated.

Also with the help of the scatterometer data, Olaf's center appears
to have tracked a bit to the east, and the initial motion is
estimated to be north-northwestward, or 340/5 kt. This has been
the recent trend over the past day or so, with the motion having
a more northward component than anticipated--but not surprising
given what previous GFS model runs have been suggesting. A strong
mid-level high over the western United States is expected to
eventually force Olaf toward the northwest and then west, but
probably not soon enough to avoid impacts on the southern Baja
California peninsula. Mostly due to the adjusted initial position,
the track models--and the NHC official forecast--have again shifted
closer to the southern tip of the peninsula, with a closest approach
in about 24 hours. This updated forecast is very close to the HCCA
consensus aid and would be close enough for the core of the storm to
at least graze land. It's also concerning that the GFS, HMON, and
COAMPS-TC models are still to the right of the official forecast and
the other models and show Olaf's center potentially moving over the
southern tip of the peninsula in about 24 hours. Olaf should
finally begin to move westward away from the peninsula in about 48
hours.

Although satellite images and model analyses suggest that some
moderate westerly shear is undercutting the outflow layer, Olaf has
been able to strengthen nonetheless. If Olaf's center does not
move over the Baja California peninsula, the storm will have the
opportunity to strengthen for another 24-36 hours while ocean
waters are warm and deep-layer shear is low. Therefore, the new
NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance
envelope and shows Olaf becoming a hurricane later today. Further
strengthening beyond what's shown in the official forecast is
possible, with rapid intensification indices now close to a 50
percent chance of a 25-kt increase in winds over the next 24 hours.
By 48 hours, colder waters should cause Olaf's convection to
decrease, and global models suggest it could degenerate to a
convection-less post-tropical low by day 3.

The updated track and intensity forecasts have necessitated the
issuance of a Hurricane Warning by the government of Mexico for
southern portions of Baja California Sur, and an extension of
Tropical Storm Warnings northward along both east and west coasts
of the peninsula.


Key Messages:

1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane later today and
then pass very near or over the southern portion of Baja California
Sur tonight and on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
to begin within the hurricane warning area this afternoon, and
preparations should therefore be rushed to completion this morning.

2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are possible across portions of
far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This will
pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 20.5N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 21.4N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 22.6N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 23.5N 111.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 23.7N 113.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 23.1N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/0600Z 22.1N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0600Z 21.3N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

[dexterlabio]

I am curious if the name "Olaf" was included in the list of names before or after 2013?

[aspen]

Seems like an eyewall is taking shape.

[Yellow Evan]

I am curious if the name "Olaf" was included in the list of names before or after 2013?

It’s been there since 1979.

[aspen]

An eyewall has developed. This should be Hurricane Olaf by 5pm.

[zeehag]

i woke up this am checked the weather to find hurricane olaf is what is giving us this weathery weather... mazatlan iu sunder some of the outer fringes of olaf.. we havent winds at this time but we are overcast and gloomy.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 091415
TCSENP
CCA

A. 15E (OLAF)

B. 09/1130Z

C. 20.9N

D. 108.0W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CORRECTION IS BASED ON REANALYSIS. 12/10 BANDING AROUND
THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT ARE BOTH EQUAL TO 4.5 BASED ON A
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS
AS FT IS LIMITED TO CHANGE OF 1.5 OVER 12 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[Yellow Evan]

This is a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2021 Time : 135032 UTC
Lat : 20:58:55 N Lon : 108:17:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 978.3mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 4.3

Center Temp : -64.8C Cloud Region Temp : -68.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

[Extratropical94]

Now a hurricane

Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

Recent microwave imagery shows that Olaf's structure has improved
considerably during the past 6 hours, and it now has well-defined
eye. The eye is also now evident in radar imagery from Cabo San
Lucas. Although an eye is not yet evident in infrared or visible
imagery, satellite intensity estimates had increased and supported
an intensity of 60-65 kt at 1200 UTC. Given the continued
impressive satellite appearance since then, the estimated intensity
is 65 kt for this advisory, making Olaf a hurricane.

Olaf has a microwave ring structure that is known to indicate
intensification in the short term. The wind shear that previously
affected the hurricane seems to have lessened and the environment
should also support further strengthening today. The hurricane is
therefore forecast to quickly intensify during the next 12 h or so
while it approaches the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. After that, interaction with land and cold sea surface
temperatures should cause the cyclone to quickly weaken over the
weekend. Olaf is forecast to become post-tropical in about 60 h as
it moves farther away from land. The NHC intensity forecast is
above the previous advisory, and is above most of the guidance
through 24 h. Beyond that, there have been only slight adjustments
to the official intensity forecast, which is based on the multi-
model consensus.

The track forecast has shifted closer to the southern Baja
California peninsula. In line with the intensity forecast, the NHC
forecast now slightly favors the stronger GFS and regional hurricane
models, compared to the weaker ECMWF, but is still near the HCCA and
TVCN consensus aids. Olaf is moving north-northeast but should turn
northwestward later today, steered by a mid-level ridge centered
over the western United States. The models with a stronger hurricane
show Olaf turning slightly slower, and bring the center very near or
even over Baja California Sur tonight. As Olaf weakens it should
begin to be steered by lower-level flow, which will cause it to
eventually turn westward and then southwestward as it moves away
from land early next week.

Key Messages:

1. Olaf is forecast to pass very near or over the southern portion
of Baja California Sur tonight and Friday, and hurricane conditions
are likely within the hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area
this afternoon, and preparations should be rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This will pose a threat
of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 21.2N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 22.2N 109.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 23.3N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 24.0N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 24.1N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 23.8N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 12/1200Z 23.2N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z 21.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z 21.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[Sciencerocks]

[Astromanía]

No bueno para Cabo San Lucas

[Astromanía]

Cabo San Lucas live cam


Link: https://youtu.be/V7r5n192AsM

[Yellow Evan]

T5.0. LG needs to thicken.

[Zonacane]

How far north is Olaf supposed to get?

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2021 Time : 172032 UTC
Lat : 21:27:17 N Lon : 108:29:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 974.6mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 4.1

Center Temp : -65.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

[aspen]

Olaf has exceeded my pretty low expectations for it. This could end up peaking as a high end C1/low end C2 before it runs out of warm SSTs.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
1200 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...STRENGTHENING OLAF EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 108.6W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within
the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36
hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Olaf.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located
by visible satellite imagery and radar data from Cabo San Lucas
near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 108.6 West. Olaf is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward
motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center
of Olaf will approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near
or over the southern part of the peninsula this evening and on
Friday, and then move westward away from land Friday night and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely before
the eyewall of Olaf nears the southern coast of the Baja California
peninsula this afternoon and evening. Weakening is likely on
Friday and through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or this evening.
Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength within the
next hour or so, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern
portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread
northward within the warning area on Friday.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5
to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This rainfall may
trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts
of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will
spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through
Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky