ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Pressure has remained constant around 1010 mbar and so far there’s no sign of an LLC.

[GCANE]

Based on IR analysis, they need to be flying south of 20N to close it off.

[NDG]

So far by looking at the recon it looks like the circulation is broad, I do see some NW winds to the west of the recon off of the MX coast.

[Nancy Smar]

AL142021 - Tropical Depression FOURTEEN
Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity
2021-09-12 12:00 19.9 -94.4 30

http://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al142021

[NDG]

Finding plenty of west winds.

RNT15 KNHC 121412
AF303 01DDA INVEST HDOB 21 20210912
140300 2018N 09439W 9698 00363 0107 +235 +215 206008 009 012 001 00
140330 2018N 09441W 9700 00360 0106 +232 +221 212007 008 013 000 00
140400 2018N 09443W 9699 00362 0106 +235 +211 219007 007 013 001 00
140430 2018N 09444W 9697 00363 0106 +231 +218 218008 008 014 001 00
140500 2018N 09446W 9700 00360 0106 +235 +218 214008 008 014 000 00
140530 2018N 09448W 9699 00362 0106 +235 +219 212008 008 012 001 00
140600 2018N 09449W 9700 00359 0106 +233 +223 228007 007 011 001 00
140630 2018N 09451W 9699 00362 0106 +231 +229 235007 007 010 001 00
140700 2018N 09452W 9698 00364 0107 +228 //// 230005 007 011 000 01
140730 2018N 09454W 9698 00363 0108 +228 //// 284003 006 016 002 01
140800 2018N 09456W 9695 00369 0109 +231 +229 271009 011 016 004 00
140830 2018N 09457W 9694 00366 0106 +233 +225 281010 011 018 001 00
140900 2018N 09459W 9700 00362 0108 +231 +226 291012 012 017 000 00
140930 2018N 09500W 9699 00362 0108 +233 +224 288012 012 017 000 00
141000 2018N 09502W 9699 00363 0109 +234 +217 285011 012 016 000 00
141030 2018N 09503W 9699 00363 0109 +235 +214 288011 011 016 000 00
141100 2018N 09505W 9698 00364 0109 +231 +228 293012 012 015 000 00
141130 2018N 09507W 9699 00364 0109 +231 +225 293012 013 015 000 00
141200 2018N 09508W 9700 00363 0109 +233 +226 296013 013 015 000 00
141230 2018N 09510W 9699 00364 0110 +231 +229 299013 013 013 001 00
$$

[aspen]

PTC14 at 11am
https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic ... gr%5Etweet

[zzh]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC).

[NDG]

[lrak]

oh boy, not what I wanted to read this morning.

[jaguars_22]

Does anyone think Victoria could see a direct hit?

[GCANE]

Nice thermal structure per AMSU analysis.
Looking good for development.

[wxman57]

Does anyone think Victoria could see a direct hit?

That's where it is heading.

[wxman57]

Wonder if the forecasters at the NHC will forego the PTC Fourteen and go to "Nicholas" shortly?

[GCANE]

Pretty much sitting under a broad nearly closed-off anticyclone.
Very well structured poleward outflow channel driven by a Rossby Wave over the eastern Seaboard.
Any kind of quick deepening of the surface low and it'll pull deep moisture from the EPAC.
Like I said before, this one my have a few surprises up its sleeves.

[jaguars_22]

Looks like if it does hit Victoria I may just get some winds and no rain. I thought the moisture was going to be very high for Texas but I guess the dry air will win?

[ElectricStorm]

Pretty much sitting under a broad nearly closed-off anticyclone.
Very well structured poleward outflow channel driven by a Rossby Wave over the eastern Seaboard.
Any kind of quick deepening of the surface low and it'll pull deep moisture from the EPAC.
Like I said before, this one my have a few surprises up its sleeves.

Yep I agree I've been thinking the whole time this one may overperform. Hopefully not but we'll see

[tropicwatch]

Wonder if the forecasters at the NHC will forego the PTC Fourteen and go to "Nicholas" shortly?

They did find some TS winds on their way in. Wouldn't be surprised but they might just go with TD.

[AlphaToOmega]

Wonder if the forecasters at the NHC will forego the PTC Fourteen and go to "Nicholas" shortly?

They did find some TS winds on their way in. Wouldn't be surprised but they might just go with TD.

They will only designate it Nicholas if they find a closed circulation and sustained gale-force winds.

[tropicwatch]

Wonder if the forecasters at the NHC will forego the PTC Fourteen and go to "Nicholas" shortly?

They did find some TS winds on their way in. Wouldn't be surprised but they might just go with TD.

They removed the PTC announcement from their website.

[jaguars_22]

I still think this is going east of Victoria and could directly hit houston