ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

[IcyTundra]

It's odd that that the 18Z GFS is further west and north initially through 66 hours and is just offshore Galveston but ends up making landfall further east than the 18Z run.

[Clearcloudz]

00Z GFS stalls storm in Louisiana.

[Clearcloudz]

If the 00Z GFS is correct on this solution then this will most likely be a non event for all of Texas may see a few inches of rain but nothing major.

[jaguars_22]

Why are the gfs ensembles still further west? They show it landfalling in texas

[IcyTundra]

If the 00Z GFS is correct on this solution then this will most likely be a non event for all of Texas may see a few inches of rain but nothing major.

https://i.imgur.com/jrBtKhs.png

Except for Galveston Island getting TS force winds but yes for areas further inland like Harris County it would not be much.

[IcyTundra]

Why are the gfs ensembles still further west? They show it landfalling in texas

Because at the moment the GFS is an eastern outlier no other models show it getting that far east so it is reasonable to think that the GEFS will be more in line with the consensus from other models. Things can change quickly though and the GFS could be onto something.

[Clearcloudz]

If the 00Z GFS is correct on this solution then this will most likely be a non event for all of Texas may see a few inches of rain but nothing major.

https://i.imgur.com/jrBtKhs.png

Except for Galveston Island getting TS force winds but yes for areas further inland like Harris County it would not be much.

Yes Coastal regions will get some solid impacts but the system is small so there will be sharp cutoff. But I'm not sure if the GFS is correct on this storm.

[jaguars_22]

The gfs got down to a 979 this last run what would the winds be?

[IcyTundra]

If the 00Z GFS is correct on this solution then this will most likely be a non event for all of Texas may see a few inches of rain but nothing major.

https://i.imgur.com/jrBtKhs.png

Except for Galveston Island getting TS force winds but yes for areas further inland like Harris County it would not be much.

Yes Coastal regions will get some solid impacts but the system is small so there will be sharp cutoff. But I'm not sure if the GFS is correct on this storm.

I am not buying it either too far east and it is the only model showing it getting that far east. But these things can change quickly and the other models could start to shift towards the GFS or the GFS could shift back further west. By this time tomorrow I am hoping we will have a good idea of what will happen.

[Clearcloudz]

I also want to mention the stronger this storm gets early on, the more eastward it will end up so Louisiana is in play more than people think. Short term strength is big question mark because the storm hasn't even formed yet.

[IcyTundra]

The gfs got down to a 979 this last run what would the winds be?

In general a minimum central pressure of 979 mb would suggest a fairly strong cat 1 approaching cat 2 status, but every storm is different and storms can have lower or higher winds than expected for the pressure it has.

[jaguars_22]

I don’t think the gfs has a good idea on this storm. I could be wrong but I believe I still see the storm headed back west at hour 216… Oklahoma area
If that high builds back in this thing could sit in Texas somewhere for a while

[Stormcenter]

Looks what ever may be developing is doing
it a little further east than previously thought.

[IcyTundra]

I don’t think the gfs has a good idea on this storm. I could be wrong but I believe I still see the storm headed back west at hour 216… Oklahoma area
If that high builds back in this thing could sit in Texas somewhere for a while

GFS is likely wrong about the strength of the storm I don't see it strengthening down to 979 MB, but as we all know all bets are off in terms of intensity with a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico in September. If 94L can find a pocket of lower wind shear in the gulf and if conditions are slightly more favorable than the models have been suggesting in recent days then some decent strengthening isn't out of the question.

[Clearcloudz]

Huge shift on 00Z GEFS Ensemble compared to 18Z



18Z


00Z

[wxman22]

Huge shift on 00Z GEFS Ensemble compared to 18Z



18Z
https://i.imgur.com/12MEnjQ.png

00Z
https://i.imgur.com/Lw4sAnn.png

I don't see a huge shift there... They just look tighter together which means they may be honing down on a landfall location.

[Clearcloudz]

Huge shift on 00Z GEFS Ensemble compared to 18Z



18Z
https://i.imgur.com/12MEnjQ.png

00Z
https://i.imgur.com/Lw4sAnn.png

I don't see a huge shift there... They just look tighter together which means they may be honing down on a landfall location.

Bottom picture is the 00Z run, 18Z was tighter

[IcyTundra]

Huge shift on 00Z GEFS Ensemble compared to 18Z



18Z
https://i.imgur.com/12MEnjQ.png

00Z
https://i.imgur.com/Lw4sAnn.png

Looks about the same to me expect for the fact that none of the ensemble members take it into Louisiana which makes me question if the GFS is out for lunch or if it is onto something and we will see the ensemble members shift further east tomorrow.

[Clearcloudz]

Huge shift on 00Z GEFS Ensemble compared to 18Z



18Z
https://i.imgur.com/12MEnjQ.png

00Z
https://i.imgur.com/Lw4sAnn.png

Looks about the same to me expect for the fact that none of the ensemble members take it into Louisiana which makes me question if the GFS is out for lunch or if it is onto something and we will see the ensemble members shift further east tomorrow.

I don't know to me it seems ensembles shifted west but I could be wrong.

[IcyTundra]

Huge shift on 00Z GEFS Ensemble compared to 18Z



18Z
https://i.imgur.com/12MEnjQ.png

00Z
https://i.imgur.com/Lw4sAnn.png

Looks about the same to me expect for the fact that none of the ensemble members take it into Louisiana which makes me question if the GFS is out for lunch or if it is onto something and we will see the ensemble members shift further east tomorrow.

I don't know to me it seems ensembles shifted west but I could be wrong.

Looks like a very slight shift west for the ensemble mean to me too. We won't have a very good idea about that track until we get a closed low.