ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

I think a good analogy for this storm could be 1999's Hurricane Floyd. It could get close enough to give us a few nervous moments here in South Florida but I find it highly unlikely that it makes it all the way to our shore. A recurve through the Bahama's with a swipe or landfall on the Outer Banks is what I'd be betting on right now. Not saying it can't or won't come to Florida, just that it is really hard to go against climatology in late September/early October. It is very difficult to get a hit from the east this far into the season. Now if this were to somehow make it into the Caribbean, I would definitely be more concerned. We have recent history with a few October storms out of the Caribbean (Wilma and Matthew, I'm looking at you).

[jaxfladude]

98L(Future Sam?) would be WISE to peacefully/mercifully head north OTS and visit Frodo beyond the Grey Havens.

[SFLcane]

Could South Florida finally get its due?

Who knows lol.

I think it’s highly likely now this will develop next 1-2 days.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Still no true surface center but its getting closer.

[ElectricStorm]

Convection continues to blow up. The HWRF shows convection exploding over the next day or so. We'll have to see if convection continues to fire. The potential for a strong hurricane is there with this one.

[cycloneye]

I think a good analogy for this storm could be 1999's Hurricane Floyd. It could get close enough to give us a few nervous moments here in South Florida but I find it highly unlikely that it makes it all the way to our shore. A recurve through the Bahama's with a swipe or landfall on the Outer Banks is what I'd be betting on right now. Not saying it can't or won't come to Florida, just that it is really hard to go against climatology in late September/early October. It is very difficult to get a hit from the east this far into the season. Now if this were to somehow make it into the Caribbean, I would definitely be more concerned. We have recent history with a few October storms out of the Caribbean (Wilma and Matthew, I'm looking at you).

FYI= Moved your post to here.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think a good analogy for this storm could be 1999's Hurricane Floyd. It could get close enough to give us a few nervous moments here in South Florida but I find it highly unlikely that it makes it all the way to our shore. A recurve through the Bahama's with a swipe or landfall on the Outer Banks is what I'd be betting on right now. Not saying it can't or won't come to Florida, just that it is really hard to go against climatology in late September/early October. It is very difficult to get a hit from the east this far into the season. Now if this were to somehow make it into the Caribbean, I would definitely be more concerned. We have recent history with a few October storms out of the Caribbean (Wilma and Matthew, I'm looking at you).

FYI= Moved your post to here.

Thanks Luis... Keep an eye out down there. I think this may be a close call for you guys in PR.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Could South Florida finally get its due?

At this point, I think it's too little too late for a storm like Sam to get here. But honestly, who knows? We cannot control that stuff. When we eventually get a strike from the E or SE, we will be the first to know. It'll happen whenever it happens.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1440403358687248385

[BlowHard]

Is this invest something to watch for Caribbean and/or others including ConUS? Or is the current background state staying negative long enough for this invrst lifespan?

They all are. Always.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think what the models are seeing is a trough split where part dives to the south the other goes out and there is high pressure squeezed between the two. This is a pretty good pattern setup for trough splits

[ScottNAtlanta]

BTW...who was it that mentioned the GFS known "out to sea" bias ? Who was it that said look for the GFS to correct west?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1440442075175002118

[hipshot]

https://i.postimg.cc/t4HqNhYY/1-F20-E950-37-D2-42-FB-BAA2-BED5-E20-D5225.gif

What is this, I'm not sure what you are trying to communicate with this graphic.?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1440442840195031040

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/t4HqNhYY/1-F20-E950-37-D2-42-FB-BAA2-BED5-E20-D5225.gif

What is this, I'm not sure what you are trying to communicate with this graphic.?

There’s gfs continues to under due ridging. Trending south

[Stormybajan]

Hmm not sure if its just me but isnt 98L a bit north of most models at this moment? Looks to be just north of 10N, I know the 18z position was 9.5N 28.5W

[jaxfladude]

Models need to start showing consistent runs of ots no landfall or island direct impacts solutions soon!!!

[zzh]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have
increased since this morning and are beginning to show signs of
organization. Recent satellite wind data also indicate that a broad
area of low pressure has formed, but the system lacks a well-defined
center. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next day or two while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98L)

B. 21/2330Z

C. 10.7N

D. 29.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...5.5/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET
AND PT AGREE AND ARE EQUAL TO 2.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPING TREND IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL