ATL: SAM - Models

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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#81 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:13 pm

RI on the GFS.
11mb drop in 6 hours at 108. Happy hour feeling happy today :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#82 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:17 pm

24 mb difference compared to 12Z at 132h damn...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#83 Postby Landy » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:19 pm

Well, this 18z GFS certainly looks like it'll live up to its happy hour name today. Been quite the opposite these past few days. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#84 Postby Kohlecane » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:19 pm

Bit/tad more south at 138 as well
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#85 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:20 pm

skyline385 wrote:24 mb difference compared to 12Z at 132h damn...


Shifting models make pretty much a basket case for the forecast this far out, it is still unclear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#86 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:21 pm

The persistent L develops again off E Coast CONUS on 18z which should drag 98L OTS, same pattern we’ve seen for past month.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#87 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:23 pm

Blown Away wrote:The persistent L develops again off E Coast CONUS on 18z which should drag 98L OTS, same pattern we’ve seen for past month.


Thats a pretty weak trough though, it developed in the 12Z run too and barely affected 18L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#88 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:29 pm

You can clearly see the Weakness in the Ridge . . .

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#89 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:29 pm

Looking fishy this run so far. Watch some random massive ridge stop and send it W again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#90 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:31 pm

Yeah this is definitely OTS this run.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#91 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:31 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:The persistent L develops again off E Coast CONUS on 18z which should drag 98L OTS, same pattern we’ve seen for past month.


Thats a pretty weak trough though, it developed in the 12Z run too and barely affected 18L


Nothing but OTS with the persistent L off E coast CONUS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#92 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:36 pm

Looks like Peter's remnants stick around for awhile pulling 98L north. Should be a recurve this run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#93 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:39 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Looks like Peter's remnants stick around for awhile pulling 98L north. Should be a recurve this run

I think Odette also helped open up a gap in the ridge by getting further south than last run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#94 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:46 pm

I remember hearing about persistent CONUS riding this far out with Peter. It didn't really pan out
Last edited by grapealcoholic on Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#95 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:46 pm

aspen wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Looks like Peter's remnants stick around for awhile pulling 98L north. Should be a recurve this run

I think Odette also helped open up a gap in the ridge by getting further south than last run.


Well, 98L itself is much stronger and developed this run so that probably a big factor as well...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#96 Postby storminabox » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:47 pm

Really hope this becomes a nice strong fish (high ACE producer)! Love tracking those.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#97 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:49 pm

storminabox wrote:Really hope this becomes a nice strong fish (high ACE producer)! Love tracking those.


Probably another annular system like Larry looking at the GFS...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#98 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:49 pm

Would be nice to see this run verify. A nice long track major OTS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#99 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:52 pm

GFS once again underdoing a ridge

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1440081765910003717


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#100 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:54 pm

HWRF completely whiffed on IR initialization

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