Very stable structure.
ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16199
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
I bet this is 130 knots or higher
4 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
-
supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Quite a few people are seeing a Cat 5 here - I could very well be wrong but I just don't see it. I guess we'll see soon.
0 likes
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Exactly why I am saying it probably is category 5 by now
Hoping it holds so when recon gets there they are able to measure the wind to prove it.
1 likes
-
MJGarrison
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 146
- Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:26 pm
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
floridasun wrote:look at sat loop look like moving still west?
Looks to be just stair-stepping to me.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
0 likes
-
supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
SteveM wrote:Quite a few people are seeing a Cat 5 here - I could very well be wrong but I just don't see it. I guess we'll see soon.
You don’t get this kind of structure and satellite presentation very often in this part of the Atlantic. Hugo looked worse at her peak than Sam right now but recon found CAT5 winds regardless
6 likes
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16199
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 SEP 2021 Time : 192020 UTC
Lat : 13:09:35 N Lon : 48:14:24 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 954.9mb/112.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.4 6.4
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km
Center Temp : +16.5C Cloud Region Temp : -68.4C
Scene Type : EYE
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Date : 25 SEP 2021 Time : 192020 UTC
Lat : 13:09:35 N Lon : 48:14:24 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 954.9mb/112.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.4 6.4
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km
Center Temp : +16.5C Cloud Region Temp : -68.4C
Scene Type : EYE
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
0 likes
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
The wait for recon to enter Sam is reminiscent of the wait for the highly anticipated Eta recon. I fully expect recon to find Sam knocking on the door of C5 if it isn't there already.
5 likes
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
SteveM wrote:Quite a few people are seeing a Cat 5 here - I could very well be wrong but I just don't see it. I guess we'll see soon.
-removed- is very popular here.
That said, Sam is an impressive and beautiful storm.
3 likes
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
This is the meteorological equivalent of standing in line to watch your most anticipated movie of the year on opening night. Storm tracking doesn't get much better than this, can't wait for recon to arrive.
1 likes
-
ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 5121
- Age: 24
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Winds could be lagging so I think it might be around 125kts right now. However, I wouldn't be surprised if recon finds Sam at or near Cat 5 strength when it gets there. Beast of a storm for sure.
2 likes
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16199
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
Has that high end Category 4 look. Eye/CDO signature not quite at the level of a significantly stronger storm.
1 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148344
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
I have to say that this mission by Miss Piggy is going to be one of the important ones of this 2021 season if not the most anticipated one. There have been many missions this season but in this moment that Sam is intensifying, this could be in the history books depending on what they find.
3 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
tolakram
- Admin
- Posts: 20154
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
5 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
And to think Sam may maintain this intensity for a few days since NHC only starts weakening on Tuesday... If this hopefully misses land we'll have beautiful storm candy to look at for days.
3 likes
-
Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9362
- Age: 22
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
I'm guessing the first pass to be between 130-150 mph & between 950-940 MB
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16199
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion
looks better than lorenzo ever did tbh, and lorenzo was a category 5 at peak
sam is getting that sprawled out "wpac only" look ngl
Last edited by DioBrando on Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 34 guests