ATL: SAM - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
0Z GEFS: once again, a recurve safely well east of the US is implied by most members based on hour 192
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
0z CMC is further SW approaching the islands and gets dangerously close. Ends the run with a stall just NE of Bermuda under a building ridge.
0 likes
-
SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4156
- Age: 48
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
Euro curving to the North, well east of the Bahamas. However, looks like lots of ridging building in. I'm wondering if we could see a stall and loop scenario on the table as we progress through the models the next several days. Very reminiscent of Jeanne.
0 likes
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
-
supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
The nature of the cut-off low is really messing up these model outputs big time. Frames beyond day 7 are pretty much useless
4 likes
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
0Z EPS has just about all, if not all, safe recurves well away from the CONUS among its 51 members.
4 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
After a pause in intensification, 0z HWRF begins reintensifying Sam 4-5 days out. 948 mb, low end cat 4.
3 likes
Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
6Z ICON 120 is slightly NE of 0Z 126. When looking at model consensus, the bears’ advantage over the bulls continues to increase. Odds of CONUS hit quite low now though not down to near zero yet since it is still a number of days out and moving slowly.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
6z GFS has a phase of RI between +78 & +84 hours by dropping the pressure from 962 MB to 952 MB
ETA: I do want to mention that the GFS is at it's strongest yet at 947 MB at +96 Hours . . .
ETA: I do want to mention that the GFS is at it's strongest yet at 947 MB at +96 Hours . . .
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
-
Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
6z GFS makes sure that Sam does not make ANY landfalls . . .
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
I wonder what down range effects on the Atlantic ridge (if any) this soon-to-be WPAC monster will have and how it may or may not impact Sam's steering?
viewtopic.php?f=76&t=122316
viewtopic.php?f=76&t=122316
2 likes
-
Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
6z GFS turns Sam into a Powerful 936 MB Bomb Cyclone in the Long Run . . .
1 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
Sam fluctuates between a strong Cat 3 and weak Cat 4 from Sunday to the end of the run on both the HMON and HWRF, usually being in the 950s but occasionally getting down to the 940s.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
-
Stormybajan
- Category 1
- Posts: 428
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2021 3:21 pm
- Location: Windward Islands
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
Iceresistance wrote:6z GFS makes sure that Sam does not make ANY landfalls . . .
Well seems to me at hour 186 Sam slams directly into Bermuda
2 likes
Sad West Indies and Manchester United fan ⚽️
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
Intensity readout of 06z HWRF and HMON.
--- 06z HWRF ---
PEAK PRESSURE; +120hr; 947.1MB; 104.2KT; CAT3
PEAK WIND; +75hr; 950.6MB; 117.3KT; CAT4
FINAL LOCATION; +120hr; 17.7N; 57.2W; 55 mi W of 00z HWRF
Time / Pressure (mbar) / Wind (kt)
00 / 992 / 63
03 / 990 / 76
06 / 991 / 68
09 / 991 / 66
12 / 990 / 65
15 / 987 / 66
18 / 983 / 74
21 / 977 / 86 <- cat 2
24 / 973 / 75
27 / 972 / 93
30 / 970 / 94
33 / 969 / 82
36 / 969 / 87
39 / 966 / 99 <- cat 3
42 / 965 / 91
45 / 963 / 93
48 / 959 / 100
51 / 955 / 109
54 / 956 / 105
57 / 955 / 105
60 / 953 / 105
63 / 954 / 105
66 / 955 / 106
69 / 954 / 115 <- cat 4
72 / 951 / 115
75 / 951 / 117
78 / 953 / 107
81 / 956 / 106
84 / 956 / 108
87 / 956 / 111
90 / 956 / 115
93 / 954 / 114
96 / 952 / 116
99 / 951 / 110
102 / 952 / 106
105 / 952 / 107
108 / 951 / 101
111 / 950 / 106
114 / 949 / 111
117 / 948 / 107
120 / 947 / 104
123 / 948 / 102
126 / 950 / 107
--- 06z HMON ---
PEAK PRESSURE; +66hr; 946.6MB; 112.4KT; CAT3
PEAK WIND; +120hr; 949.0MB; 121.5KT; CAT4
FINAL LOCATION; +120hr; 18.0N; 55.9W; 48 mi W of 00z HMON
Time / Pressure (mbar) / Wind (kt)
00 / 993 / 66
03 / 993 / 79
06 / 995 / 65
09 / 996 / 57
12 / 996 / 54
15 / 991 / 60
18 / 985 / 68
21 / 981 / 69
24 / 978 / 69
27 / 975 / 77
30 / 972 / 83 <- cat 2
33 / 971 / 89
36 / 966 / 100 <- cat 3
39 / 965 / 94
42 / 963 / 99
45 / 962 / 98
48 / 957 / 102
51 / 954 / 109
54 / 952 / 114 <- cat 4
57 / 950 / 110
60 / 948 / 111
63 / 948 / 113
66 / 947 / 112
69 / 948 / 114
72 / 948 / 116
75 / 948 / 112
78 / 949 / 114
81 / 951 / 113
84 / 949 / 118
87 / 948 / 113
90 / 949 / 114
93 / 951 / 110
96 / 951 / 107
99 / 949 / 112
102 / 950 / 114
105 / 950 / 108
108 / 950 / 116
111 / 949 / 113
114 / 948 / 118
117 / 950 / 110
120 / 949 / 122
123 / 950 / 109
126 / 951 / 111
--- 06z HWRF ---
PEAK PRESSURE; +120hr; 947.1MB; 104.2KT; CAT3
PEAK WIND; +75hr; 950.6MB; 117.3KT; CAT4
FINAL LOCATION; +120hr; 17.7N; 57.2W; 55 mi W of 00z HWRF
Time / Pressure (mbar) / Wind (kt)
00 / 992 / 63
03 / 990 / 76
06 / 991 / 68
09 / 991 / 66
12 / 990 / 65
15 / 987 / 66
18 / 983 / 74
21 / 977 / 86 <- cat 2
24 / 973 / 75
27 / 972 / 93
30 / 970 / 94
33 / 969 / 82
36 / 969 / 87
39 / 966 / 99 <- cat 3
42 / 965 / 91
45 / 963 / 93
48 / 959 / 100
51 / 955 / 109
54 / 956 / 105
57 / 955 / 105
60 / 953 / 105
63 / 954 / 105
66 / 955 / 106
69 / 954 / 115 <- cat 4
72 / 951 / 115
75 / 951 / 117
78 / 953 / 107
81 / 956 / 106
84 / 956 / 108
87 / 956 / 111
90 / 956 / 115
93 / 954 / 114
96 / 952 / 116
99 / 951 / 110
102 / 952 / 106
105 / 952 / 107
108 / 951 / 101
111 / 950 / 106
114 / 949 / 111
117 / 948 / 107
120 / 947 / 104
123 / 948 / 102
126 / 950 / 107
--- 06z HMON ---
PEAK PRESSURE; +66hr; 946.6MB; 112.4KT; CAT3
PEAK WIND; +120hr; 949.0MB; 121.5KT; CAT4
FINAL LOCATION; +120hr; 18.0N; 55.9W; 48 mi W of 00z HMON
Time / Pressure (mbar) / Wind (kt)
00 / 993 / 66
03 / 993 / 79
06 / 995 / 65
09 / 996 / 57
12 / 996 / 54
15 / 991 / 60
18 / 985 / 68
21 / 981 / 69
24 / 978 / 69
27 / 975 / 77
30 / 972 / 83 <- cat 2
33 / 971 / 89
36 / 966 / 100 <- cat 3
39 / 965 / 94
42 / 963 / 99
45 / 962 / 98
48 / 957 / 102
51 / 954 / 109
54 / 952 / 114 <- cat 4
57 / 950 / 110
60 / 948 / 111
63 / 948 / 113
66 / 947 / 112
69 / 948 / 114
72 / 948 / 116
75 / 948 / 112
78 / 949 / 114
81 / 951 / 113
84 / 949 / 118
87 / 948 / 113
90 / 949 / 114
93 / 951 / 110
96 / 951 / 107
99 / 949 / 112
102 / 950 / 114
105 / 950 / 108
108 / 950 / 116
111 / 949 / 113
114 / 948 / 118
117 / 950 / 110
120 / 949 / 122
123 / 950 / 109
126 / 951 / 111
0 likes
-
gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
Quiet in this thread overnight with not a lot of model posts since they all recurve.
Here is the 00Z EC, not even close to the CONUS, somewhat close the islands:
Here is the 00Z EC, not even close to the CONUS, somewhat close the islands:
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
gatorcane wrote:Quite in this thread overnight with not a lot of model posts since they all recurve.
Here is the 00Z EC, not even close to the CONUS, somewhat close the islands:
https://i.postimg.cc/vB2w7cF1/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-atl-fh120-240.gif
That would be quite a big ACE-maker, though. It would remain over 28-29C SSTs for longer than other further east, non-landfall tracks.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
-
Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9873
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
06z HWRF... 1 degree faster W than 00z, very close call for the NE Caribbean so far, still 5+ days out.
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
That's a very volatile pattern, if the H5 low is stronger and retrogrades faster it would pull Sam in the NJ area. Especially if it maintains a negative tilt longer. It is hard to trust and upper air map at 192.
2 likes
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
I am at 18.1 N 63.1W
how close is this thing going to come to me?
how close is this thing going to come to me?
0 likes
Too many hurricanes to remember
-
AutoPenalti
- Category 5
- Posts: 3950
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
There's roughly 5-7 days before we even figure out where this will be so A LOT can change.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests