ATL: SAM - Models

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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#801 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 24, 2021 12:25 am

0Z GEFS: once again, a recurve safely well east of the US is implied by most members based on hour 192
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#802 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 12:33 am

0z CMC is further SW approaching the islands and gets dangerously close. Ends the run with a stall just NE of Bermuda under a building ridge.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#803 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:44 am

Euro curving to the North, well east of the Bahamas. However, looks like lots of ridging building in. I'm wondering if we could see a stall and loop scenario on the table as we progress through the models the next several days. Very reminiscent of Jeanne.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#804 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:56 am

The nature of the cut-off low is really messing up these model outputs big time. Frames beyond day 7 are pretty much useless
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#805 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:56 am

0Z EPS has just about all, if not all, safe recurves well away from the CONUS among its 51 members.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#806 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Sep 24, 2021 3:31 am

After a pause in intensification, 0z HWRF begins reintensifying Sam 4-5 days out. 948 mb, low end cat 4.
Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#807 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 24, 2021 4:41 am

6Z ICON 120 is slightly NE of 0Z 126. When looking at model consensus, the bears’ advantage over the bulls continues to increase. Odds of CONUS hit quite low now though not down to near zero yet since it is still a number of days out and moving slowly.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#808 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:04 am

6z GFS has a phase of RI between +78 & +84 hours by dropping the pressure from 962 MB to 952 MB

ETA: I do want to mention that the GFS is at it's strongest yet at 947 MB at +96 Hours . . .
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#809 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:50 am

6z GFS makes sure that Sam does not make ANY landfalls . . .
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#810 Postby jhpigott » Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:54 am

I wonder what down range effects on the Atlantic ridge (if any) this soon-to-be WPAC monster will have and how it may or may not impact Sam's steering?

viewtopic.php?f=76&t=122316
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#811 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 24, 2021 6:01 am

6z GFS turns Sam into a Powerful 936 MB Bomb Cyclone in the Long Run . . .

Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#812 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:10 am

Sam fluctuates between a strong Cat 3 and weak Cat 4 from Sunday to the end of the run on both the HMON and HWRF, usually being in the 950s but occasionally getting down to the 940s.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#813 Postby Stormybajan » Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:13 am

Iceresistance wrote:6z GFS makes sure that Sam does not make ANY landfalls . . .

Well seems to me at hour 186 Sam slams directly into Bermuda
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#814 Postby kevin » Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:17 am

Intensity readout of 06z HWRF and HMON.

--- 06z HWRF ---
PEAK PRESSURE; +120hr; 947.1MB; 104.2KT; CAT3
PEAK WIND; +75hr; 950.6MB; 117.3KT; CAT4
FINAL LOCATION; +120hr; 17.7N; 57.2W; 55 mi W of 00z HWRF

Time / Pressure (mbar) / Wind (kt)
00 / 992 / 63
03 / 990 / 76
06 / 991 / 68
09 / 991 / 66
12 / 990 / 65
15 / 987 / 66
18 / 983 / 74
21 / 977 / 86 <- cat 2
24 / 973 / 75
27 / 972 / 93
30 / 970 / 94
33 / 969 / 82
36 / 969 / 87
39 / 966 / 99 <- cat 3
42 / 965 / 91
45 / 963 / 93
48 / 959 / 100
51 / 955 / 109
54 / 956 / 105
57 / 955 / 105
60 / 953 / 105
63 / 954 / 105
66 / 955 / 106
69 / 954 / 115 <- cat 4
72 / 951 / 115
75 / 951 / 117
78 / 953 / 107
81 / 956 / 106
84 / 956 / 108
87 / 956 / 111
90 / 956 / 115
93 / 954 / 114
96 / 952 / 116
99 / 951 / 110
102 / 952 / 106
105 / 952 / 107
108 / 951 / 101
111 / 950 / 106
114 / 949 / 111
117 / 948 / 107
120 / 947 / 104
123 / 948 / 102
126 / 950 / 107

--- 06z HMON ---
PEAK PRESSURE; +66hr; 946.6MB; 112.4KT; CAT3
PEAK WIND; +120hr; 949.0MB; 121.5KT; CAT4
FINAL LOCATION; +120hr; 18.0N; 55.9W; 48 mi W of 00z HMON

Time / Pressure (mbar) / Wind (kt)
00 / 993 / 66
03 / 993 / 79
06 / 995 / 65
09 / 996 / 57
12 / 996 / 54
15 / 991 / 60
18 / 985 / 68
21 / 981 / 69
24 / 978 / 69
27 / 975 / 77
30 / 972 / 83 <- cat 2
33 / 971 / 89
36 / 966 / 100 <- cat 3
39 / 965 / 94
42 / 963 / 99
45 / 962 / 98
48 / 957 / 102
51 / 954 / 109
54 / 952 / 114 <- cat 4
57 / 950 / 110
60 / 948 / 111
63 / 948 / 113
66 / 947 / 112
69 / 948 / 114
72 / 948 / 116
75 / 948 / 112
78 / 949 / 114
81 / 951 / 113
84 / 949 / 118
87 / 948 / 113
90 / 949 / 114
93 / 951 / 110
96 / 951 / 107
99 / 949 / 112
102 / 950 / 114
105 / 950 / 108
108 / 950 / 116
111 / 949 / 113
114 / 948 / 118
117 / 950 / 110
120 / 949 / 122
123 / 950 / 109
126 / 951 / 111
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#815 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:31 am

Quiet in this thread overnight with not a lot of model posts since they all recurve.

Here is the 00Z EC, not even close to the CONUS, somewhat close the islands:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#816 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:33 am

gatorcane wrote:Quite in this thread overnight with not a lot of model posts since they all recurve.

Here is the 00Z EC, not even close to the CONUS, somewhat close the islands:

https://i.postimg.cc/vB2w7cF1/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-atl-fh120-240.gif

That would be quite a big ACE-maker, though. It would remain over 28-29C SSTs for longer than other further east, non-landfall tracks.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#817 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:33 am

Image
06z HWRF... 1 degree faster W than 00z, very close call for the NE Caribbean so far, still 5+ days out.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#818 Postby xironman » Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:41 am

:uarrow: That's a very volatile pattern, if the H5 low is stronger and retrogrades faster it would pull Sam in the NJ area. Especially if it maintains a negative tilt longer. It is hard to trust and upper air map at 192.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#819 Postby msbee » Fri Sep 24, 2021 8:01 am

I am at 18.1 N 63.1W
how close is this thing going to come to me?
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#820 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 24, 2021 8:11 am

There's roughly 5-7 days before we even figure out where this will be so A LOT can change.
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