ATL: ELSA - Models

[skyline385]

The Euro has gotten the last laugh with Elsa.

U got that right

I wouldnt say that tbh, EURO failed to even develop this into a TS let alone a Cat 1.

[hurricane2025]

The Euro has gotten the last laugh with Elsa.

U got that right

I wouldnt say that tbh, EURO failed to even develop this into a TS let alone a Cat 1.

Gfs has been all over the place

[Ubuntwo]

Euro is far stronger than the GFS now with a mid-grade TS striking Florida and a hurricane moving off the Carolinas.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/858799719634829372/861310903918788628/sfcwind_mslp.png?width=875&height=676
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/858799719634829372/861310502940704788/sfcwind_mslp.png?width=875&height=676

That’s weak weak low end tropical storm not mid

999mb is a mid grade or even high end tropical storm. The 10m wind looks lower because it's entirely over land at that point.

[hurricane2025]

Euro is far stronger than the GFS now with a mid-grade TS striking Florida and a hurricane moving off the Carolinas.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/858799719634829372/861310903918788628/sfcwind_mslp.png?width=875&height=676
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/858799719634829372/861310502940704788/sfcwind_mslp.png?width=875&height=676

That’s weak weak low end tropical storm not mid

999mb is a mid grade or even high end tropical storm. The 10m wind looks lower because it's entirely over land at that point.

Weak sauce man

[SFLcane]

12Z Euro animation from 0 to 120 hours, definitely with something more significant than it has been showing all of the sudden:

https://i.postimg.cc/zDQKg0xQ/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-120.gif

[Dean4Storms]

LOL.....Here's comes the ECM to throw a curve ball..... Wind gusts from around Sarasota to near 90mph then 60-70mph up the State toward Jax. FL

[HurricaneBelle]

Eur-uh oh

[SFLcane]

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1411776050766528515

[Cat5James]

https://i.postimg.cc/qvnmYmt1/41-A8-B50-C-4-E2-A-472-D-8-BB0-BC65-D099-C654.gif

Weaker storm goes east it looks like

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/qvnmYmt1/41-A8-B50-C-4-E2-A-472-D-8-BB0-BC65-D099-C654.gif

Weaker storm goes east it looks like

I wound not call some of the ensembles weak. There are some 989, 990mb there.

[AtlanticWind]

GFS much stronger this run

[Spacecoast]

All 50 members of ECMF + mean + Consensus (white)

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0418&fh=48

[Cat5James]

Ridge shifts East with GFS

[Spacecoast]

ECMF wind tracks (bias corrected):


ECMF cone history:


ECMF track density:



Wind speed forecast:


Late cycle Intensity, including all ECMF members, (NGX2 & NVGM show CAT3):

[gatorcane]

LOL.....Here's comes the ECM to throw a curve ball..... Wind gusts from around Sarasota to near 90mph then 60-70mph up the State toward Jax. FL

I had to check this myself and indeed it has 90+mph wind gusts for Sarasota and up through Lakeland area. Wow

Note the 18Z GFS run which just came in has around 60mph wind gusts for the portions of the Tampa Bay area especially near the coast.

[AtlanticWind]

This is Funny now the global models are stronger than the hurricane models

Whats up with that

[SFLcane]

Gfs a bit stronger and further eastward. Perhaps trending towards the Euro

[Spacecoast]

Late cycle pressure forecast:...