ATL: ELSA - Models

[Cat5James]

Both hurricane models have shifted a full degree east so far

[AtlanticWind]

Euro gets pressure down to 991 in gulf

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

991mb near landfall

[tolakram]

12Z Euro landfall

[eastcoastFL]

991mb near landfall
https://i.imgur.com/UzQuG5B.png

Is that east of the last run?

[tolakram]

991mb near landfall
https://i.imgur.com/UzQuG5B.png

Is that east of the last run?

Go here: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/fl ... 1900z.html

Change the model run. East and a lot stronger.

[DestinHurricane]

Wow Euro sure did change it's tune, and so did HWRF. It's like they are swapped lol. Wonder if Euro could be on to something, it did much better with intensity than hwrf so far.

[eastcoastFL]

991mb near landfall
https://i.imgur.com/UzQuG5B.png

Is that east of the last run?

Go here: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/fl ... 1900z.html

Change the model run. East and a lot stronger.

Wow yah it was 10mb weaker and on the panhandle last run

[tolakram]

This run takes it up the coast, just onshore, going offshore in the Virginia area.

[pgoss11]

Would that 986mb be a Cat 1 south of Long Island?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Lowest pressure on the 12z Euro is 983mb as it is approaching the Florida coast. Weakens to 990mb at landfall.

[eastcoastFL]

Would that 986mb be a Cat 1 south of Long Island?

Looks like it. Currently nhc has a TS further east on their map

[aspen]

Would that 986mb be a Cat 1 south of Long Island?

Looks like it. Currently nhc has a TS further east on their map

The Euro is odd with intensity as a system goes over land and exits in that region. It was showing Claudette as a much stronger storm following its landfall too. I doubt Elsa gets that strong, but its track is too close for comfort for me.

[LarryWx]

The last 3 Euro runs have Elsa's northward movement considerably slower vs the GFS/CMC/UKMET but similar to the ICON. If that were to verify, it would mean delayed effects for the SE vs GFS/CMC/UKMET timing.

I'm taking the 12Z Euro's stronger storm with a huge grain. The Euro often tends to be volatile with strength forecasts (this run even significantly strengthened her inland at the FL/GA border...not gonna happen folks) and I expect a weaker solution at one or both of the 18Z/0Z runs. All other major models (GFS/CMC/UKMET/ICON/JMA/NAVGEM) are significantly weaker and the Euro hasn't done well overall with Elsa. Even the often overhyped JMA has her very weak.

Regarding the 12Z UKMET:


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.07.2021

TROPICAL STORM ELSA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 80.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.07.2021 0 21.7N 80.9W 1010 29
0000UTC 06.07.2021 12 23.2N 82.8W 1011 29
1200UTC 06.07.2021 24 25.1N 83.4W 1011 35
0000UTC 07.07.2021 36 27.5N 83.9W 1009 37
1200UTC 07.07.2021 48 29.7N 83.6W 1007 34
0000UTC 08.07.2021 60 32.2N 82.9W 1005 26
1200UTC 08.07.2021 72 34.3N 80.6W 1003 30
0000UTC 09.07.2021 84 36.7N 76.7W 1003 40
1200UTC 09.07.2021 96 39.4N 72.0W 997 47
0000UTC 10.07.2021 108 43.1N 66.4W 996 43
1200UTC 10.07.2021 120 48.0N 59.1W 999 37
0000UTC 11.07.2021 132 53.2N 50.8W 999 33
1200UTC 11.07.2021 144 POST-TROPICAL

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, I'd say on strength ride with between GFS and the ECM at 12z and you'd prolly hit the nail on the head.

[Steve]

Would that 986mb be a Cat 1 south of Long Island?

Looks like it. Currently nhc has a TS further east on their map

The Euro is odd with intensity as a system goes over land and exits in that region. It was showing Claudette as a much stronger storm following its landfall too. I doubt Elsa gets that strong, but its track is too close for comfort for me.

Claudette certainly got better organized after landfall. There's a decent chance Elsa could look her best coming up. Outside of the earlier outliers, I feel like the majority of the models will have gotten the landfall pretty close from a ways out. It's been apparent for several days that Elsa would come up through the Keys (or possibly just west) and then landfall somewhere between the tip of Florida (+/- 81W) and Apalachicola (+/- 85W). That's a pretty narrow range of less than 170 nautical miles and less than 190 statue miles. So credit to them. What always had to be worked out in reality was whatever happened between Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba and how vigorous the storm would be in a somewhat atypical environment for this time of year. It's not atypical to have a trough across the western or central Gulf with a system coming up in the eastern Gulf that could be eastern weighted. It's more that some of the upper patterns are different for early July.

Levi's site is screwing up, and I don't feel like diving into the rest of my links. Maybe after the 18z's run or the 00z's get started. From what I can tell, NAM 12km and GFS look underdone on total precipitation. CMC looks closer to what we'll probably see. Interestingly it puts some of the energy from former 95L into S TX and rains a foot in 5 days from Brownsville north in a pretty big area up the coast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=120

[NDG]

Euro has 991mb pressure in N Gulf that should be a Cat 3 with this storm

Actually it shows its strength fluctiating between the low 980s mb and 990s mb before landfall. This is the most aggressive I have seen the Euro with it.

[eastcoastFL]

Euro has 991mb pressure in N Gulf that should be a Cat 3 with this storm

Actually it shows its strength fluctiating between the low 980s mb and 990s mb before landfall. This is the most aggressive I have seen the Euro with it.

https://i.imgur.com/jScZe3x.png

Euro going with the blind squirrel forecasting method. Eventually it’s going to be right. It tried to kill her off for the past week and that didn’t work so time to switch tactics.