ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[St0rmTh0r]

told you it would blow up after sunset

Now it is nearly stacked and I don't see much inhibiting it. Outflow is excellent in all quads, no sign of shear in the near future. Gonna be a ride!

Still going with my Cat 5 prediction. The weather worldwide this year has been unprecedented

[tropicwatch]

The TPW loop is showing Elsa getting a nice spiral shape. The last frame is from about ninety minutes ago.

[floridasun78]

my weatherman say those storm are east of center that center expose a little bit to west of those storms that you all see tonight

[StPeteMike]

told you it would blow up after sunset

Now it is nearly stacked and I don't see much inhibiting it. Outflow is excellent in all quads, no sign of shear in the near future. Gonna be a ride!

Still going with my Cat 5 prediction. The weather worldwide this year has been unprecedented

Don’t know about Cat 5 but I can see this reaching major. It’s going to go over the same waters is Charley did, it bit cooler water temps but still enough to allow decent strengthening.

[eastcoastFL]

Elsa is about 1900 miles away from Miami yet they could see TS winds in less than 72 hours…insane

[Jr0d]

Tomorrow at 5pm Monroe County(the Florida Keys) is having an emergency meeting to decide what precautions they will take. With the current forecast as a tropical storm they will not do much. However I am fairly certain by 5pm tomorrow Elsa will be forecasted to become a hurricane.... especially if recon finds a stronger storm that expected.

If it is a cat 1 in the forecast, they will order all liveaboard vessels and RVs to evacuate to a safe place on land but hotels will remain open. If a cat 2 is forecast, they will order hotels closed and tourist to evacuate as well as mobile homes, mandatory evacuation for low lying areas, if a cat 3 is forecast (highly unlikely) mandatory evac for all.

With great uncertainty ahead and a very busy weekend, whatever decision is made will not be an easy one.

[AtlanticWind]

my weatherman say those storm are east of center that center expose a little bit to west of those storms that you all see tonight

Not according to where NHC has the center

[Category5Kaiju]

I cannot believe that we are at the point of talking about a potential Category 4 in July in the Atlantic as an extreme but not 100% impossible case. We still have a few days before we find out for sure, but it looks like 2005 may not be alone.

[CrazyC83]

I'm getting Charley flashbacks here. Similar setup, but the big difference is that it is much earlier in the season. Land interaction will be key going forward.

[MarioProtVI]

told you it would blow up after sunset

Now it is nearly stacked and I don't see much inhibiting it. Outflow is excellent in all quads, no sign of shear in the near future. Gonna be a ride!

Still going with my Cat 5 prediction. The weather worldwide this year has been unprecedented

This is, to put bluntly, doomcasting and also 100% impossible. No model has it going above C1/2, not even the HWRF which before maxed it at a high-end C3.

[USTropics]

Question: If the max winds are 45 kts and it's moving at 25 kts to the west, does that mean they are actually more like 65 kts on the north side of the storm?

To my mind, if the maximum sustained winds (MSW) stated in an NHC advisory for a tropical cyclone (TC) are 50 kt and its forward speed (FS) is 10 kt, the actual MSW are only 40 kt. But that would mean the MSW would increase whenever the FS of the TC accelerates and vice versa, which would be odd. As such, speaking under correction, on the right and left sides of the track the FS should be added to and subtracted from the stated MSW, respectively.

That's correct, in the forward right quadrant the storm's forward motion is added to the maximum sustained winds at the surface (as they are both in the same direction). Conversely, in the forward left quadrant of the storm, even if the pressure difference is minimal, the storm motion substracts from the maximum sustained winds at the surface.

For example, if the forward right quadrant has a southeast wind at 100 knots, and the storm is moving from southeast to northwest at 20 knots, the maximum surface winds would theoretically be 120 knots. Conversely, if the forward left quadrant favors a northwest wind, the storm motion is subtracted from the surface wind speed, which would be 80 knots.

[Aric Dunn]

open wave ?

[ElectricStorm]

told you it would blow up after sunset

Now it is nearly stacked and I don't see much inhibiting it. Outflow is excellent in all quads, no sign of shear in the near future. Gonna be a ride!

Still going with my Cat 5 prediction. The weather worldwide this year has been unprecedented

There is absolutely no way this becomes a Cat 5. Zero. I think Cat 3 is the max potential but for now I don't think it will get above a Cat 1 or 2.

One blowup of convection and people are already calling for a nearly unprecedented situation. Sure this storm is impressive for this time of year, I'm not here to say otherwise. But there's no reason to forecast a Cat 5 when NHC doesn't even have a hurricane in their forecast yet...

[Jr0d]

I'm getting Charley flashbacks here. Similar setup, but the big difference is that it is much earlier in the season. Land interaction will be key going forward.

I was thinking that too. Especially now with the forecast shifting left. This could crossover the western tip.of Cuba like Charlie.....not a good scenerio for the West coast of Florida.

[eastcoastFL]

Tomorrow at 5pm Monroe County(the Florida Keys) is having an emergency meeting to decide what precautions they will take. With the current forecast as a tropical storm they will not do much. However I am fairly certain by 5pm tomorrow Elsa will be forecasted to become a hurricane.... especially if recon finds a stronger storm that expected.

If it is a cat 1 in the forecast, they will order all liveaboard vessels and RVs to evacuate to a safe place on land but hotels will remain open. If a cat 2 is forecast, they will order hotels closed and tourist to evacuate as well as mobile homes, mandatory evacuation for low lying areas, if a cat 3 is forecast (highly unlikely) mandatory evac for all.

With great uncertainty ahead and a very busy weekend, whatever decision is made will not be an easy one.

Hopefully it won’t be too bad. I think I remember you having some flooding during Laura last year ?

[abajan]

Well, that will be of little use to us in Barbados. Recon needs to be in there right now!

We always need more recon, baby. But I think we can see what’s in store for Barbados using satellite and radar for now. Should be ok.

Is there a site for Barbados Radar?

https://www.barbadosweather.org/BMS_Rad ... l_Resp.php but it may take several attempts for the page to load due to the site is getting lots of hits, as would be expected.

[ElectricStorm]

New cone

[AtlanticWind]

In the forecast advisory the NHC said the bouy 200 mi north of center reported 38 mph winds .Big wind field

[eastcoastFL]

told you it would blow up after sunset

Now it is nearly stacked and I don't see much inhibiting it. Outflow is excellent in all quads, no sign of shear in the near future. Gonna be a ride!

Still going with my Cat 5 prediction. The weather worldwide this year has been unprecedented

This is, to put bluntly, doomcasting and also 100% impossible. No model has it going above C1/2, not even the HWRF which before maxed it at a high-end C3.

While I agree it’s highly unlikely for this to play out you are incorrect about the models. HWRF has 964mb 111kt hurricane hitting Jamaica in 2 days.

[CrazyC83]

Predicting the intensity beyond 36-48 hours is a fool's errand right now. I agree that it could strengthen some more in the short term, and would have considered a Hurricane Watch for parts of Hispaniola. But beyond that, what happens in the Greater Antilles will be enormous. The range of possibilities in Florida ranges from open trough to solid hurricane.

Northern side of the cone probably would mean there would be little left by the time it gets there. Southern side of the cone gives it ample time to develop and intensity with only a short time over Cuba (and a flatter part?).