ATL: ELSA - Models

[Spacecoast]

0z GFS nudges back west a bit @24 hrs..

[AtlanticWind]

0z GFS nudges back west a bit @24 hrs..
https://i.ibb.co/JcLjtwk/gfs-mslp-pcpn-seus-fh24-trend.gif

Doubt the more easterly initial position made this run.

[Ubuntwo]

0z Euro continues in depicting a hurricane, verbatim.


0z GFS is weaker with a 999mb TS making landfall near Steinhatchee. The CMC hardly has a system at all.

[LarryWx]

0z Euro continues in depicting a hurricane, verbatim.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/861848912624091176/unknown.png?width=981&height=676

The Euro continues to be out to lunch imo with a bad start and now a bad end for Elsa. It again is on its own with an apparent hurricane again in the E GOM. Based on what's happening now, there's no reason to think it has the right idea. Also, it once again has her stronger well inland near the GA/FL border vs her earlier weaker strength on landfall.

Meanwhile, here's the 0Z UKMET, which is similar to its prior run and to a consensus of other models:


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.07.2021

TROPICAL STORM ELSA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 82.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.07.2021 0 22.5N 82.2W 1011 30
1200UTC 06.07.2021 12 24.6N 83.2W 1009 38
0000UTC 07.07.2021 24 26.8N 83.4W 1005 39
1200UTC 07.07.2021 36 29.2N 83.2W 1005 38
0000UTC 08.07.2021 48 31.7N 82.7W 1003 30
1200UTC 08.07.2021 60 33.8N 80.6W 1004 37
0000UTC 09.07.2021 72 36.3N 77.3W 1002 36
1200UTC 09.07.2021 84 38.9N 72.4W 997 42
0000UTC 10.07.2021 96 42.5N 66.8W 996 45
1200UTC 10.07.2021 108 47.4N 59.9W 998 38
0000UTC 11.07.2021 120 53.9N 49.9W 996 33
1200UTC 11.07.2021 132 POST-TROPICAL

[NDG]

Yet another crazy run by the 06z Euro of forecasting Elsa becoming a hurricane before landfall. Bring hurricane force wind gusts all along Pinellas county coast.

[jdray]

Yet another crazy run by the 06z Euro of forecasting Elsa becoming a hurricane before landfall. Bring hurricane force wind gusts all along Pinellas county coast.

Those high gusts go well inland as well with the forward movement speed. There could be a little more wind damage than I first thought if the Euro manages to verify (which is hilarious to think about considering what it showed a few days ago, let alone late last week).

[NDG]

It will be yet another big bust for the Euro if Elsa does not become a hurricane tonight with a pressure getting down to 982mb as forecasted by it.
It went from dissipating Elsa east of the Bahamas to now the most aggressive. I want the old Euro back.

[CFLHurricane]

It will be yet another big bust for the Euro if Elsa does not become a hurricane tonight with a pressure getting down to 982mb as forecasted by it.
It went from dissipating Elsa east of the Bahamas to now the most aggressive. I want the old Euro back.

Me: “I want the Euro!”
Mom: “We have the Euro at home.”
[tHe eUrO at home]

[Vdogg]

It will be yet another big bust for the Euro if Elsa does not become a hurricane tonight with a pressure getting down to 982mb as forecasted by it.
It went from dissipating Elsa east of the Bahamas to now the most aggressive. I want the old Euro back.

Not so sure the Euro will bust with the LLC now being pulled back under the convection. Minimal cat 1 is definitely on the table.

[AlphaToOmega]

Looking at the GFS, we could see tornadoes as far inland as Southern Georgia:


The CMC suggests we might even see tornadoes as far inland as North Carolina:

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 0-24 hours:

[NDG]

12z Euro came in weaker pressure down to 993mb before landfall but I think it was due to a bad iniation at 1010mb

[LarryWx]

If Elsa were to get down close to the 6Z Euro’s 982 mb and make me eat crow after how bad it has done overall….
But I’m not too worried about that right now as that’s still well below the current 1,000 mb.

I do see that the 12Z Euro doesn’t have that fictional inland strengthening near the FL/GA border that prior runs had.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET is a little stronger in E GOM vs 0Z run:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.07.2021

TROPICAL STORM ELSA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.6N 83.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.07.2021 0 24.6N 83.4W 1009 36
0000UTC 07.07.2021 12 26.1N 83.4W 1005 42
1200UTC 07.07.2021 24 28.4N 84.0W 1002 47
0000UTC 08.07.2021 36 30.4N 83.9W 1000 35
1200UTC 08.07.2021 48 32.5N 82.1W 999 36
0000UTC 09.07.2021 60 34.8N 79.3W 998 38
1200UTC 09.07.2021 72 37.0N 75.4W 988 58
0000UTC 10.07.2021 84 39.5N 71.2W 988 61
1200UTC 10.07.2021 96 43.0N 65.6W 995 46
0000UTC 11.07.2021 108 47.0N 57.7W 1001 40
1200UTC 11.07.2021 120 50.9N 46.9W 1004 32
0000UTC 12.07.2021 132 POST-TROPICAL

[tolakram]

12Z euro strongest frame


landfall

[MrJames]

NHC track seems furthest east right now. Perhaps a small shift west at 5PM closer to the TVCN.

[LarryWx]

12Z euro strongest frame
https://i.imgur.com/I7OcBRG.png

landfall
https://i.imgur.com/u3qBBSi.png

This 993 mb on the 12Z Euro is 11 mb weaker weaker than the 6Z's 982.

[HurricaneBelle]

I'd say we owe the Euro an apology except that it's computer code and doesn't care.

[tolakram]

I'd say we owe the Euro an apology except that it's computer code and doesn't care.

The Euro dissipated Elsa a long long time ago.

It's interesting it's gotten the strengthening correct, when usually that's not what it's good at.

[tolakram]

18z GFS tears Elsa apart prior to landfall.