ATL: IDA - Models
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models
HWRF 938 MB into Terrebonne Parish imagine if the winds catch up to the pressure 
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Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models
Growing consensus between HWRF/HMON suggests Cat 4+ at LF
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models
As mentioned in the past here is sim IR 48-66hr, and the question we have asked is shear on the W side, but looking at this, it looks like it's more from landfall, unless that shear comes quick and fast 
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Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models
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Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models
Kohlecane wrote:As mentioned in the past here is sim IR 48-66hr, and the question we have asked is shear on the W side, but looking at this, it looks like it's more from landfall, unless that shear comes quick and fast https://s9.gifyu.com/images/hwrf-48-66.jpg
Its W half narrows as Ida approaches LF, so HWRF does show some shear, but perhaps too late. Also, most models show RI levelling off just before LF in southern LA, suggesting the influence of increasing westerly shear resulting in constricted outflow on the W side of the storm. See below:
https://twitter.com/EricWMUR/status/1431313531413086215
Last edited by Shell Mound on Fri Aug 27, 2021 12:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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TallahasseeMan
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models
What's most concerning is that the latest HWRF run that bombs it out into the 930s initialized too weak. It takes 21 hours from 12Z to get to it's current intensity.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models
12Z Euro running
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Hurrilurker
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models
Euro has it at 989 24 hours from now? That seems...unlikely? It's probably already past that right now.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models
12z euro landfalls at 947mb...
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Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
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SconnieCane
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models
Kohlecane wrote:As mentioned in the past here is sim IR 48-66hr, and the question we have asked is shear on the W side, but looking at this, it looks like it's more from landfall, unless that shear comes quick and fast https://s9.gifyu.com/images/hwrf-48-66.jpg
That bottom right frame is eerily identical to Katrina's (somewhat degraded from peak) satellite presentation at landfall, on the 16th anniversary (in local time).
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models
so 48 hours ago GFS 12z had a 932 into SW LA, that same run also had it at 1008 where it is currently in that run...let that sink in
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Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
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Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models
Last time the Euro got this low in the Atlantic was for Teddy and Laura.
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Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models
BobHarlem wrote:12z UKMET
https://i.imgur.com/2efwEPZ.png
Is it just me is UKMET sort of always the most west biased of the models for gulf storms? I never see it much since its not as accessible but I feel like years past its always west bias, but sometimes nails it?
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MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models
BobHarlem wrote:12z UKMET
https://i.imgur.com/2efwEPZ.png
Euro and UKMET are usually west-biased in the Gulf. The GFS is right biased. Good to split the difference between the Euro and GFS usually.
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