EPAC: CARLOS - Remnants

[Subtrop]

EP, 92, 2021060412, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1070W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005, SPAWNINVEST, ep752021 to ep922021,

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922021 06/04/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 17 16 17 21 30 40 47 52 54 54 56 55 55 53 52
V (KT) LAND 20 18 17 16 17 21 30 40 47 52 54 54 56 55 55 53 52
V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 18 18 17 18 19 20 22 23 25 26 27 27 27 26
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 10 5 3 5 7 12 14 13 13 14 22 22 20 17 18 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -2 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -3 0 2 3 -2 -2
SHEAR DIR 292 282 272 230 190 162 120 114 114 105 75 75 83 71 67 71 82
SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.5 27.0 27.1
POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 159 157 156 155 155 153 151 149 150 149 147 144 138 133 135
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.8 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 76 76 73 68 65 64 61 57 55 54 54 56 56 58
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 10 12 14 16 16 16 17 16 15 15 14
850 MB ENV VOR -15 -10 -15 -16 -16 -2 -8 -4 -1 7 3 7 4 -1 -9 -10 -16
200 MB DIV 9 14 27 41 46 52 44 9 7 34 30 46 23 21 0 27 1
700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0
LAND (KM) 774 761 752 745 742 777 857 931 1032 1150 1308 1413 1499 1574 1663 1759 1835
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.5 13.4 13.1 12.6 11.9 11.5 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.6 108.0 108.4 108.7 109.4 110.2 111.1 112.1 113.1 114.4 115.9 117.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 4 3 5 5 5 6 8 7 6 7 7 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 37 39 40 43 44 49 45 28 17 14 19 23 12 10 8 7 9

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. 45. 47. 49.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. 10. 8. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -3. 1. 10. 20. 27. 32. 34. 34. 36. 35. 35. 33. 32.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.3 107.0

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/04/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.73 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.36 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.2% 23.6% 10.1% 5.6% 0.9% 14.9% 1.0% 4.8%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.7% 8.0% 3.4% 1.9% 0.3% 5.0% 0.4% 1.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/04/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS now peaking this in 3 days.

[aspen]

The last few GFS runs have been consistent with this becoming a TC in only a few days, by late Sunday.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 4 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure has developed within a larger-scale trough
located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Showers
and thunderstorms associated with this system have become better
organized today, and further development is now expected. A
tropical depression is likely to form by early next week as it
moves slowly to the west-northwest well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF drops this.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922021 06/04/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 23 29 39 48 56 61 64 66 67 66 65 61 60
V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 23 29 39 48 56 61 64 66 67 66 65 61 60
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 29 31 33 33 33 32 32
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 4 3 5 9 9 15 14 13 14 17 19 20 14 13 9 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 -4 1 -2 0 -1 1 0 1 1 5 0 0 0
SHEAR DIR 279 283 222 175 180 124 110 105 97 82 64 70 69 76 70 97 340
SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.7 26.8 26.6 26.4
POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 157 157 156 157 155 153 152 149 150 148 145 140 132 129 128
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2
700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 75 74 69 66 64 63 60 54 56 57 56 56 54 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 11 13 15 16 16 16 16 16 15 16
850 MB ENV VOR -16 -19 -21 -20 -13 -4 -8 -10 0 6 3 6 -4 -7 -13 -12 -20
200 MB DIV 21 25 41 37 31 50 26 19 22 65 45 58 33 43 1 1 2
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 0
LAND (KM) 762 756 739 750 758 812 891 980 1079 1203 1353 1428 1473 1555 1658 1740 1856
LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.4 13.1 12.8 12.4 11.9 11.5 11.5 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.8 108.1 108.5 108.8 109.4 110.2 111.1 112.0 113.1 114.6 116.2 117.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 7 8 7 7 8 9 9 11
HEAT CONTENT 37 39 39 45 48 54 45 26 17 14 19 19 10 7 3 2 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. 45. 46. 48.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. 10. 9. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 19. 28. 36. 41. 44. 46. 47. 47. 45. 41. 40.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.6 107.3

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/04/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.73 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.37 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.0% 33.8% 17.1% 8.8% 2.9% 16.4% 16.5% 35.9%
Bayesian: 0.3% 3.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 1.9% 0.1%
Consensus: 2.1% 12.3% 5.8% 3.0% 1.0% 5.7% 6.1% 12.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/04/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

LGEM bearish

[Kingarabian]

A little less bullish on the 12z EPS but a good amount of members still show some sort of TS/TD.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has a hurricane in 48 hours:

[Kingarabian]

Starting to see some curvature and banding:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 4 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next few days while it moves slowly to the
west-northwest well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[aspen]

The GFS is forecasting a pretty compact structure for future Carlos. The first HWRF run does the same, and gets it to a 960 mbar/100 kit Cat 3 in 87 hours.

[JW-_-]

A little less bullish on the 12z EPS but a good amount of members still show some sort of TS/TD.

Next 10 days.

Quite a few bullish scenarios are on the table with ec.

[cycloneye]

EP, 92, 2021060500, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1076W, 25, 1008, LO

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922021 06/05/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 57 63 67 68 68 67 68 66 64 60 57
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 57 63 67 68 68 67 68 66 64 60 57
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 39 43 47 51 54 56 56 54 51 48 46
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 2 5 7 7 7 12 14 17 16 18 15 14 11 13 9 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 -1 2 1 0 -3 -4 -2 1 6 7 0 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 289 231 176 165 147 105 98 88 93 83 82 87 82 66 76 75 71
SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 26.7 26.4 25.8
POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 156 155 156 157 155 153 152 150 148 146 143 141 131 128 122
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2
700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 72 70 65 64 64 61 58 59 60 58 57 56 58 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 9 12 13 15 16 17 16 16 15 15 14 14
850 MB ENV VOR -19 -22 -19 -14 -11 -10 0 2 14 8 15 9 0 -13 -13 -22 -29
200 MB DIV 46 54 57 50 50 57 12 -24 6 5 28 38 66 35 5 -9 -8
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2
LAND (KM) 743 734 730 737 754 825 890 964 1040 1164 1277 1319 1367 1471 1579 1670 1762
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.4 13.2 12.9 12.6 12.1 12.1 12.3 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.0 108.3 108.6 108.9 109.6 110.3 111.0 111.7 112.8 114.2 115.6 116.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 7 7 6 7 9 9 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 37 38 39 43 47 52 43 28 19 14 18 30 10 7 2 1 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 37. 39. 40. 41. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 12. 12. 9. 8. 7. 6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 32. 38. 42. 43. 43. 42. 43. 41. 39. 35. 32.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 107.6

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 6.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.79 5.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 3.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.37 1.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.0% 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 17.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 14.4% 49.3% 29.9% 19.6% 5.3% 36.1% 27.9% 38.2%
Bayesian: 0.8% 10.7% 3.4% 0.9% 0.5% 4.3% 3.1% 0.4%
Consensus: 5.1% 28.4% 18.3% 6.8% 1.9% 20.5% 16.1% 12.9%
DTOPS: 0.0% 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 17.0% 49.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Subtrop]

WTPN21 PHNC 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 107.4W TO 14.3N 109.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 107.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N
107.6W, APPROXIMATELY 1285 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO,
CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A
050156Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
SUPPORTING DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92E WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AS IT INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060300Z.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS continues to insist on a hurricane in 2 days. Ofc it's the only model anywhere this aggressive so I have my doubts even if the environment on paper is conducive.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Very large differences between the GFS and the CMC in strength and structure in the next 18 hours. Tomorrow will be very telling on which model is right or wrong.