ATL: CLAUDETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Here we go.

AL, 92, 2021061218, , BEST, 0, 200N, 945W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004, SPAWNINVEST, al742021 to al922021,

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression
could form in this area by the middle of next week. Regardless of
development, due to the slow motion heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of Central America and southern Mexico. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven/Latto

[Sciencerocks]

[robbielyn]

Levi got his 1st video out on 92L.

[cycloneye]

Link to Levi Cowan video of 92L.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3el7qjBoOo

[tailgater]

BOC looks juiced but if tries to get north of 25N anytime soon it will be shredded. Hopefully we won’t get to much rain out of this, the gulf coast from Mobile to Corpus Cristi has been pretty wet YTD.

[aspen]

The important points from Levi’s video:
1.) there is a weak, elongated circulation currently present
2.) 92L will be under low-moderate shear within a “safe pocket” until Monday or Tuesday
3.) A gigantic ridge will push 92L south and impart a ton of shear mid-week
4.) As the ridge weakened by the end of the week, 92L will have another pocket of reduced shear, and it looks like it’ll probably move north

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Messy

[captainbarbossa19]

Messy

https://i.imgur.com/o9bYh2D.jpg

Yep. Looks like a soon-to-be June TC (possibly). Definitely not August or September quality. It is rather rare to get a June hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development is possible over the next several days while this
system moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression could
form in this area by the middle of next week. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central
America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please
consult products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Pasch

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track is stationary as this was the same position at 18z.

AL, 92, 2021061300, , BEST, 0, 200N, 945W, 20, 1008, DB

[DorkyMcDorkface]

A likely scenario I am seeing from looking at the models is that a compact circulation forms in the BoC, moves inland for a time, and then lifts north with the rest of the gyre into the Gulf Coast as a sloppier and broader system. Not unlike Cristobal from last year minus the basin crossover.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hammy]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4445/CZ1pXB.gif

Based on curvature it looks like a center might be trying to form around 21/97.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure continues to produce a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche.
Slow development is possible over the next several days while the
broad disturbance moves little, and a tropical depression could form
in this area late in the week. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and
southern Mexico during the next several days. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Dean4Storms]

Agree with the NHC, better conditions for development appears more likely late week as anything in the near term will be heavily sheared and battling dry air entrainment. Off we go into the deep tropics season for 2021.

[cycloneye]

Continues in the same spot of 20N-94.5W since yesterday at 18z when it was up as Invest but before when they were tracking it, was also in that position. The home of 92L is there.

AL, 92, 2021061312, , BEST, 0, 200N, 945W, 20, 1010, DB

AL, 92, 2021061118, , BEST, 0, 200N, 945W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS004, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
AL, 92, 2021061200, , BEST, 0, 200N, 945W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS004, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
AL, 92, 2021061206, , BEST, 0, 200N, 945W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS004, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
AL, 92, 2021061212, , BEST, 0, 200N, 945W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS004, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
AL, 92, 2021061218, , BEST, 0, 200N, 945W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004, SPAWNINVEST, al742021 to al922021,
AL, 92, 2021061300, , BEST, 0, 200N, 945W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
AL, 92, 2021061306, , BEST, 0, 200N, 945W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
AL, 92, 2021061312, , BEST, 0, 200N, 945W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,

[tailgater]

Looking at the early morning visible satellite we have what looks like a tiny circulation on coast of Mexico near Tuxpan which will likely push farther inland and something might redevelop later to the southeast.
Euro has backed off a lot and of course GFS has ramped up. Let the model wars begin.

[ScottNAtlanta]

From what I gather, this isn't supposed to do much until 5-7 days from now. If it did develop early, it will just get blown apart.

[Aric Dunn]

Our happy little LLC is migrating east, being pulled to the convection. Only a short matter of time now.