CPAC: JIMENA - Remnants

[cycloneye]

EP, 99, 2021072700, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1155W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, SPAWNINVEST, ep742021 to ep992021,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[cycloneye]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992021 07/27/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 20 22 26 31 35 36 36 37 39 39 39 40 39
V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 20 22 26 31 35 36 36 37 39 39 39 40 39
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 2 4 4 5 9 7 9 8 8 8 5 7 10 12 16 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 -2 -1 1 0 -2 -5 -3 -5 -5 -4 -2 1 0
SHEAR DIR 83 314 309 298 314 317 316 291 273 271 224 198 185 241 242 244 227
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.8 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.0 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 26.3 25.5
POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 148 145 144 139 141 143 140 137 133 141 139 138 138 127 118
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 55 56 57 58 60 63 65 65 65 64 63 56 55 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4
850 MB ENV VOR -25 -20 -25 -30 -31 -33 -36 -30 -17 1 4 -1 -2 -6 -17 -14 -20
200 MB DIV -20 -10 22 23 27 7 5 -19 -14 15 37 18 -1 -7 -50 -15 4
700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6
LAND (KM) 1234 1271 1305 1335 1363 1425 1491 1584 1689 1800 1903 2028 2146 2300 2245 2016 1800
LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.6 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.2 116.8 117.3 117.9 119.3 120.6 121.9 123.3 124.8 126.3 127.9 129.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 23 23 15 10 9 6 7 9 8 5 3 13 10 13 5 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 16. 16. 17. 19. 19. 19. 20. 19.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.1 115.5

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 07/27/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.87 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.2% 19.5% 12.9% 4.8% 1.3% 3.4% 0.4% 2.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.1% 6.5% 4.3% 1.6% 0.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.8%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 07/27/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

This is basically a replica of 98E with even less model support.

[Kingarabian]

What's worse on intensity this season, the HWRF or GFS-SHIPS?

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

A low-pressure system located over 800 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and to the southeast of
its center. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive
for some gradual development of this system over the next several
days as it moves westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Might be classifiable.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

UKMET getting bullish on this:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 13.4N 122.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2021 60 13.3N 123.5W 1006 24
1200UTC 30.07.2021 72 12.8N 124.9W 1005 26
0000UTC 31.07.2021 84 13.1N 126.1W 1004 31
1200UTC 31.07.2021 96 13.0N 128.3W 1003 33
0000UTC 01.08.2021 108 13.0N 129.6W 1000 34
1200UTC 01.08.2021 120 13.7N 131.7W 999 39
0000UTC 02.08.2021 132 14.5N 134.0W 995 45
1200UTC 02.08.2021 144 15.8N 136.0W 989 54

[Kingarabian]

Yeah this one has realistic model support.

[cycloneye]

A low-pressure system located over 850 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and to the southeast of
its center. This activity has recently become a little more
concentrated closer to the center, and environmental conditions
appear marginally conducive for additional development. A tropical
depression could form later this week as the system moves generally
westward at around 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

00Z UKMET still deepens(based on the output pressure reading) this to a borderline hurricane.

This is till under 15kts of mid shear. That'll stunt development for the next couple of days before the mid shear gives out.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS a little bit more bullish. Can expect the HWRF/HMON to also be more bullish now.


00z CMC has development even earlier. Closer to the UKMET.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly better organized
since yesterday in association with a low-pressure system located
about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions remain conducive for some
additional development, and a tropical depression could form late
this week or this weekend while the system moves generally westward
at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ28 KNES 281401
TCSENP
CCA

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99E)

B. 28/1130Z

C. 13.4N

D. 118.5W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION AND INTENSITY BASED ON THE 1206Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MW PASS. SYSTEM HAS CIRCULAR DEFINED CLOUD LINES AROUND AN
LLCC THAT IS NEAR THE ACTIVE LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTING IN A SHEAR
PATTERN DT OF 2.0. THE 24 HR DEVELOPMENT TREND IS DEVELOPING RESULTING
MET TO BE 1.5 AND PT TO BE 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992021 07/28/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 33 33 34 37 45 47 50 54 60 62 66 66 66
V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 33 33 34 37 45 47 50 54 60 62 66 66 66
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 31 28 26 25 24 24 26 28 32 34 37 37
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 9 11 9 7 3 6 11 4 7 4 6 6 9 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 1 0 0 -3 -2 -1 -2 -4 -1 -2 -1 -3 -5 -4
SHEAR DIR 331 325 309 290 283 253 283 166 155 142 105 90 54 33 48 97 149
SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.6 25.6
POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 138 139 139 139 141 140 139 140 141 139 139 139 136 130 119
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1
700-500 MB RH 58 59 62 62 64 70 72 73 75 74 72 68 66 64 65 64 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 13 14 16 16 17
850 MB ENV VOR -49 -47 -36 -30 -31 -11 2 19 27 27 35 30 24 18 24 27 30
200 MB DIV 20 24 16 17 33 32 43 35 28 27 25 44 59 28 35 7 9
700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 3
LAND (KM) 1431 1448 1481 1525 1578 1673 1769 1853 1941 2043 2160 2248 2330 2394 2231 2026 1804
LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.6 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.5 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 118.4 118.9 119.5 120.1 120.7 121.9 123.1 124.3 125.6 127.2 128.8 130.3 131.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 6 7 7 9 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 6 6 6 8 7 6 8 9 10 20 16 4 1 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 29. 30. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 6. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 7. 15. 17. 20. 24. 30. 32. 36. 36. 36.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 118.4

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 07/28/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 4.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 1.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.48 2.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -3.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 14.9% 13.4% 12.1% 0.0% 13.0% 12.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.4% 27.2% 11.7% 7.8% 2.4% 10.1% 10.2% 15.3%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.7% 14.3% 8.4% 6.6% 0.8% 7.7% 7.5% 5.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 07/28/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##